Week 7 Picks

Shame on me, for not correcting my picks to my pick 'em group. It kept me from a winning week. There are a lot of teams that have weak secondaries in this weeks matchups as will be noted in each of the notes on the game. No I didn't copy DJ's picks I do believe that our picks are nearly identical, I do think that he's been listening to me a little too much. Before I get to the picks I have to vent (With apolgozies to Scott for his informative piece) I am growing very tired of hearing people ripping on the Bengals for their 5-2 start. Yes, the Bengals have lost to both Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. They are good teams in their own right and earned the victories. My problem is with the media wonks that have derided the Bengals for who they've played. Uh, its not like Notre Dame who can pick their patsies every week (I'll rant on them in a bit) The Bengals have beaten the teams that they are supposed to beat. Its like people are uncomfortable with the notion that the Bengals are not the Bungles of old and want to pigeonhole them back to the league favorite joke. No I'm not dropping my loyalties to the Vikings. I just get tired of hearing these wonks rag on a team quantifying their win with "Oh that team is no good. A win in the NFL is a win its not like the Bengals can predict what a teams record will be when they face them. And while I'm on that tangent... Lets touch on the B.S. errr BCS. According to my power 5 USC is #1 and Texas a strong #2 with VA Tech lurking at #3, The BCS poll has Texas at #1 with USC a close second. All I have to say on this is HUH??? USC hasn't lost since the Reagan Administration, okay I'm exaggerating a bit, but a 29 game winning streak means that until someone beats you on the field. You're the #1 team in the country, period. Notre Dame gave it a go, but lost. No other team has been able to hold up in the second half. Texas is a great team, don't get me wrong on that point, but this is a prime example of why the NCAA needs a playoff. How we get to that point??? Who knows since the college presidents and bowl committees hold so much sway and loath to give up their power. Speaking of getting sick of hearing about things, I am growing sick of hearing all the "Notre Dame should go to a BCS bowl if they win out." At 9-2 any other team would get laughed out of the room if they weren't a conference champion with an auto bid. What makes Notre Dame so special. The Irish squeaked past a so-so Michigan team, lost to Michigan State at home and of course lost to USC. Name me any other "quality wins that this team has. Not to mention they still have a very good Tennessee team on their docket. Notre Dame fattens its record by beating scrub teams (Washington, Pitt, BYU) loses to good teams and whines that they should be in a BCS bowl because they bring their noisy freespending fans. I'm sorry, but unless you're bringing an undefeated or 1 loss record to the table, don't bring anything. Yeah, I know that they BCS has conference ties and that these teams also come in with weak records, but should a deserving team that is not a conference champ that has 1 loss get locked out to Notre Dame who might have as many as three losses? I know money talks but I want to see the best teams slugging it out for a national championship, not teams that think that they are great. Don't get me wrong, I like Charlie Weis and Brady Quinn is a stud, but Notre Dame has to earn its props not just show up with a name. Okay, I'm off my soapbox. Submitted for your approval are my picks Sunday, October 30 Arizona (2-4) @ Dallas (4-3) Texas Stadium; Irving, TX-1:00 FOX Favorite-Cowboys by 7.5 This looks to be a fairly high scoring aeiral based game. The Cards have a strong receiving corps, The Cowboys have a solid if unspectacular receiving tandem in vets Joey Galloway and Keyshawn Johnson. The Cards have a weak secondary, the Pokes secondary aren't world beaters but they are just a bit better. The Pokes WR tandem will get the job done. Running games for either are pretty much non-existant. Pick-Dallas Chicago (3-3) @ Detroit (3-3) Ford Field; Detroit-1:00 FOX Favorite-Lions by 3 The Lions are burning to exact revenge from the 38-6 humiliation the Bears laid on them last month. The Lions have shown improvement, if small. Steve Mariucci has the QB he wants to play in now, but the Lions offense scares no one. That bodes badly in the face of a stingy Chicago defense. With the Lions missing key components like DT Shaun Rogers and DB Dre Bly, the Bears can use Thomas Jones at will and keep things real basic for Kyle Orton. The game won't be near the blowout that it was in September, but it doesn't mean the Lions will win either. Pick-Chicago Cleveland (2-4) @ Houston (0-6) Reliant Stadium, Houston-1:00 CBS Favorite-Texans by 2 This may be the only game that the Texans are favored to win. The Texans must keep David Carr upright, and establish the run. Achievable tasks against a porous Browns defense. A couple of early scores by the Texans could put the Browns in a hole, as their offense scares no one but their fans. If the Texans can't pounce on this one, look for the comparisons to the '76 Bucs squad to ratchet up a couple of notches. Really, beyond this game find your humble scribe a winnable game for the Texans in the next few weeks beyond this game and you're closing in on Christmas. Pick-Houston Green Bay (1-5) @ Cincinnati (5-2) Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati-1:00 FOX Favorite-Bengals by 7.5 There is an article in Thursday's Enquirer about how both teams fortune more or less turned on their September 20, 1992 meeting in Green Bay when a 2-0 Bengals squad had a 17-3 4th quarter lead on the 0-2 Pack and knocked out their starting QB. The backup who came rallied the Pack to a 24-23 win and the rest is his-tor-ee. I blame the Bengals for the rise of Brett Favre, had they not knocked Don Majikowski out Favre would have rusted on the bench and...and...and. Sorry for going off on the tangent. The Bengals are a whole lot better now than in that meeting. Favre is 13 years older and has less weapons. If the Bengals establish the running game early and get the play action pass going. They build a lead and wait for Favre to throw into the teeth of the Bengals ball-hawking, big play roughneck secondary. Favre used to be able to ruff his way through a scenario like this in olden days. That won't happen this time. Pick-Cincy Jacksonville (4-2) @ St. Louis (3-4) Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis -1:00 CBS Favorite-No Line The Rams have return to the realm of the consistent offenses with the naming of Joe Vitt as the Rams' coach during the Mike Martz's recovery. Look for the Rams to establish more of a ball control offense with Marc Bulger doubtful for the game, The Jags while not an passing juggernaut can take advantage of a suspect Rams secondary and if Fred Taylor can establish a presence running it will make that task easier. Expect a rested Jags team that plays well on the road to stuff the run and dare the Rams to pass. Pick-Jacksonville Minnesota (2-4) @ Carolina (4-2) Bank Of America Stadium, Charlotte-1:00 FOX Favorite-Panthers by 7 The Vikes showed some heart with their off the canvas rally to beat their hated rival Green Bay last week. The task is considerably more difficult going against a rested Carolina team. The Panthers can ball control with the best of them and their defense while shaky in the secondary rarely gets tested because of the nasty pass rush provided by Kris Jenkins and Julius Peppers. Considering the Vikes well documented troubles with their offensive line, Daunte Culpepper will have pressure on him from the start. We all know what happens then. Pick-Carolina Oakland (2-4) @ Tennessee (2-5) The Coliseum, Nashville-1:00 CBS Favorite-No Line This was a good matchup...three years ago. The Raiders have big play potential but the Titans have a good enough pass rush on the immobile Kerry Collins to negate that. The Titans get Travis Henry back from suspension and can use him to spell Chris Brown in a solid 1-2 running combo. This is yet another game in which a good running game can soften up a solid defensive line and the redoubtable Steve McNair could pick apart a shaky Raider secondary further weakened by injuries. The Raiders are better than their record shows and the Titans can ill afford to get into a shootout. Pick-Oakland Washington (4-2) @ NY Giants (4-2) Giants Stadium East Rutherford, NJ-1:00 FOX Favorite-Giants by 2.5 This is one of the weeks more intriguing matchups, The G-Men are finding themselves under Eli Manning's improving leadership. Despite their 52 point performance last week don't think for a second that the Redskins are the most dazzling offensive team. They go against a Giants defense that is porous and averages but 26 minutes of time of possession a game. Look for the Skins to utilize their solid running game to exploit the time of posession advantages and wily vet Mark Brunell to pick on a weak Giant secondary. Pick-Washington Kansas City (4-2) @ San Diego (3-4) Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego-4:05 CBS Favorite The Chargers are the NFL's best 3-4 team. All of their losses are by 4 points or less. The Chiefs are the very definition of inconsistent and their record is rather deceptive. The Chargers will try to get LaDainian Tomlinson going early and set up their complementary passing game. The Chiefs want to do the very same thing with their two pronged running attack featuring Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes with Trent Green trying to get the ball to Tony Gonzalez more often. The difference here is the defense, the Chargers have one and the Chiefs perpertrate like they have one. KC has a decent run defense and it will key on Tomlinson, but Drew Brees could have a field day against the Chiefs secondary that gives up too many big plays, note that he had 378 yards against the Chiefs last year, if he gets into a rhythm with Antonio Gates it'll be a long day. Pick-San Diego Miami (2-4) @ New Orleans (2-5) Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, LA-4:05 CBS Favorite-Saints by 2 A homecoming of sorts for both teams. The Saints are playing in their home state for the first time this season and Dolphins coach Nick Saban returns to the stadium where he coached last in college. The Dolphins have a defense weakened by injuries and the Saints will exploit that every chance that they get. If the Dolphins fall behind it'll negate their use of their running game and depending on Gus Frerotte to carry your offense is a risky proposition at its very best. The Dolphins averaging but 15.7 points can ill afford to get into a shootout which given their undermanned defense is a real possibilty. The Saints while not a scary team offensive will get healthy enough to put more points up than the Dolphins can. Pick-New Orleans Philadelphia (4-2) @ Denver (5-2) Invesco Field @ Mile High, Denver-4:15 FOX Favorite-Broncos 3.5 The Eagles must livin right. They can't run a lick, but steal games. They won't get as lucky though against a Broncos squad still smarting over a last second loss to the G-Men. The Broncos will sit back in a number of zones and double dog dare the Eagles to run. They won't (or can't) and it'll be their downfall. Pick-Denver Tampa Bay (5-1) @ San Francisco (1-5) Monster Park, San Francisco-4:15 FOX Favorite-Bucs by 10.5 A battle of young QB's, but Chris Simms has a much better supporting cast. The Bucs can use their Caddy again and it will make them better balanced. Not like you need that much against a hapless Niner squad. The Niners look to retread Ken Dorsey to jump start their moribound offense, but he'll have no luck dealing with a rowdy Buc pass rush. This is a game so ugly that Fox is sending their D squad to cover it. Homer Simpson passed on the assignment. Pick-Tampa Bay Buffalo (3-4) @ New England (3-3) Gillette Stadium Foxboro, MA-8:30 ESPN Favorite-Patriots by 8 The better than their record Pats face a puzzling Bills squad. Kelly Holcombe looks like a stud one week and a dud the next. Tom Brady has been throwing the ball more than usual, because of an inconsistent Corey Dillon. The Bills have a tough secondary though. The Pats need for Dillon to get a good start and their defense gets a big boost if the redoubtable Tedy Bruschi can give any support. The Pats are tough at the "Razor" and a dose of nasty weather will be in their favor as well. The Bills have had to do a cross country trip before and the Pats are coming off a bye, not a good combo. Pick-New England

Monday, October 31 Baltimore (2-4) @ Pittsburgh (4-2)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh-9:00 ABC
Favorite-Steelers by 8.5
The Steelers are feeling froggy after their beatdown of the division leading Bengals. They get a Ravens squad who is looking more and more offensively inept by the week. Here's a guess, the Steelers are going to run the ball...often and dominate time of possession. The Ravens had better hope that Anthony Wright channels the ghost of Johnny Unitas to have any kind of chance in this game. Pick-Pittsburgh

BYE WEEK: Atlanta (5-2) Indianapolis (7-0) NY Jets (2-5) Seattle (5-2)

Last Week 8-6
Overall 57-45