Week17 Picks

The football gods have been so unkind to me this season. With the exception of a mutt-like wild card run through one league and a totally unexpected domination of another league my 2005 season has been the pits. My picks and prognastication has been similarly uneven. The minute I whine about 10-6 weeks, I get an 8-8. That will teach me to keep my yap shut.

Points to Ponder The San Diego Chargers were eliminated from playoff contention last week with their 20-7 loss to Kansas City in a sloppy Arrowhead. The AFC breathes a sigh of relief as the Chargers have logged wins against no fewer than four playoff bound teams (NE, NYG, Wash, Ind) That was a team no one wanted to see in the playoffs.

The Bills stunning upset of the Bengals was aided by a first a Kickoff return and Interception return for a TD by the same person. Doing that in Madden isn't the same

Monday Night Football isn't over, its just moving to ESPN in 2006. The 555 episode run is the longest for a sports program and the 2nd longest for a regular TV show (behind the indomitable 60 Minutes) The Jets started and ended the shows ABC tenure by the same losing score of 31-21 (In 1970 they lost to the Browns and lost to Pats Monday) that they kicked off MNF.

The playoff picture cleared up quite a bit over the weekend. Almost all of the divisions got locked up, Except for the NFC East where the G-men are in and either the Skins or Pokes will join them.

There are by my count three playoff spots and four teams trying to get them. Week 17 should be fun With the Pats win over the Jets (one of the few that I got right)

The Pats are at .500...let me explain before you call me a moron. The Pats are 354-354-9 lifetime since their inception in 1960. This is the first time they've been at that mark since 1969 when they were 60-60-9. (No ties in 35 years...) Thats a lot of bad football, recent history not withstanding. They were as far below as 54 games below .500 in 1994. I wonder how long it would take the Bengals to get out of the hole they are in??? Don't get me started on the Cards.

Artest: Who's sorry now? Ron Artest is the biggest idiot this side of TO, after all he went through, The petulant Pacer forward wants out, then after realizing that no one really wants the trouble, wants back in. There are some bridges you can't burn, and Artest burned them. He might join Spree as talent malcontents that are looking for work,

Now on to the picks:
NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 17

Saturday, December 31
Denver (12-3) @ San Diego (9-6)
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego-4:30 CBS
Favorite- Chargers by 11
All the Chargers can do is play spoiler for other teams, Denver got an unexpected Christmas present when the Bengals lost to the Bills and handed them the coveted bye week seeding. The Broncos will likely rest many of their key starters, making the Chargers the best 10 win team not to make the playoffs. Fast Fact: Mike Anderson's 1014 yards continues the long string of thousand yard Bronco RB's, consider that that before Terrell Davis started the current streak of 1000 yard rushers the Broncos only had three in the fifteen years previous.
Pick-San Diego

NY Giants (10-5) @ Oakland (4-11)
McAfee Stadium, Oakland-8:00 ESPN
Favorite- Giants by 10
The G-Men have a tough situation, stay healthy enough to fly back cross country for the playoffs. A win gets the G-Men a division title and a home playoff game, while a loss sends them to another road game. The Raiders want it all to be over. Fast Fact:Tiki Barber is a longshot at best to catch Shaun Alexander and be the first G-Man to win the NFL Rushing title since 1951
Pick-New York Giants

Sunday, January 1

Arizona (5-10) @ Indianapolis (13-2)
RCA Dome, Indianapolis-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Colts by 7
The Colts have other things on their minds besides a bad Cardinal squad. They'll play hard enough to ensure that they are in a full blown slump prior to their first round playoff bye. Fast Fact:Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison will finish with over 3,500, 1000 and 1000 yards passing, rushing and receiving respectively for the third straight year and the sixth time since becoming teammates in 1999.
Pick-Indy

Baltimore (6-9) @ Cleveland (5-10)
Browns Stadium, Cleveland-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Ravens by 3
In the Modell Bowl, the question remains which of these young QB's will show that their recent solid play is the real deal? The Browns Charlie Frye or the Ravens Kyle Boller? Fast Fact: The Ravens have won 4 of the past 5 of this emotionally charged series. Pick-Baltimore

Buffalo (5-10) @ NY Jets (3-12)
The Meadowlands; East Rutherford, NJ-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Bills by 2
The Bills are feeling better about themselves after springing a surprise upset on the playoff bound Bengals. The Jets??? They are still dreaming of Matt Lienart in home colors. They still have a slim chance of getting Reggie Bush. This could very well be Herman Edwards last game as the Jets coach, rumors are very strong that he is contemplating a jump to friendlier pastures in KC. This game will give him more thought to leaving Gotham Fast Fact: The Jets need to score 24 points to avoid their worst scoring season since going to a 16 game schedule in 1978
Pick-Buffalo

Carolina (10-5) @ Atlanta (8-7)

Georgia Dome, Atlanta-1:00 FOX Favorite-Panthers by 4 Carolina badly needs this win, to get in to the postseason. Atlanta wants to play spoiler. One wants to think that in front of their home crowd, the Falcons will play tough, but the Panthers know that a win gets them into the playoffs and possibly the NFC South crown if things go right so they will rely on their punishing D to make life hard on Michael Vick. Fast Fact: The Falcons have never had back to back winning seasons in their franchise history, a win here would achieve that. Pick-Carolina

Cincinnati (11-4) @ Kansas City (9-6)
Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, MO-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Chiefs by 8
The Bengals want to tune up for the playoffs and keep their starters healthy. They do not want to go in with a two game losing streak, but they face a daunting task in a Chiefs squad that has a slim playoff chance and wants to send their rumored outgoing coach out a winner. If the Bengals can slow down a rampaging Larry Johnson (8 straight 100+ yard games) they can get the ball into the hands of their potent offense and pick on the Chiefs bad secondary. Look for Jon Kitna to use this game as an audtion to other teams that they can find some use out of him in 2006. Fast Fact: The Bengals seek to match their franchise high in wins with 12, in which they made the super bowl both times
Pick-Cincy

Detroit (5-10) @ Pittsburgh (10-5)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Steelers by 14
The Steelers are rolling and need only a win over a hapless Lions team that packed it in a long time ago to make the playoffs. This will be one long party for Steeler fans as this is their last home game of the season. If the Steelers get any kind of a sizable lead look for Big Ben and the Bus to be given rest in preparation for a possible showdown with the Bengals on wild card weekend. Fast Facts: Hines Ward is 65 receiving yards from cracking the 1,000 yard mark for the 5th straight year. The Lions have not won in Pittsburgh since 1955
Pick-Pittsburgh (survivor)

Miami (8-7) @ New England (10-5)
Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Patriots by 6 The Pats will rest many of their key players as this is a meaningless game. The Fins will look to complete their startling improvement from their four win campaign of 2004. Fast Fact:Even if he doesn't play against the Fins, Tom Brady will be the first Patriot to lead the NFL in passing yards.
Pick New England

New Orleans (3-12) @ Tampa Bay (10-5)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Bucs by 14
The Bucs got a dramatic win over the Falcons and need only to beat the sleepwalking Saints to get in to the playoffs and possibly win the NFC South. All this in front of a happy home crowd. What more could Chucky want?
Fast Fact: The Bucs are seeking to make their first playoff appearance since steamrolling the Raiders in the Super Bowl three years ago.
Pick-Tampa Bay

Seattle (13-2) @ Green Bay (3-12)
Lambeau Field; Green Bay, WI-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Packers by 5
The only question here is if Shaun Alexander will play any and break the TD record he holds with Priest Holmes. Matt Hasselbeck can say that they are going to score today and not sound like the idiot he was in the 2003 playoffs. The old sentiment in me wants to send Brett Favre out in a blaze of glory in possibly his last game as a Packer. I've tried that tack twice before and been burned, I won't go for three. Fast Fact: Seattle has set a franchise record for wins, but has the longest dry spell of any team in playoff wins. They haven't won a playoff game since beating Denver in the AFC Wild Card game in 1984
Pick-Seattle

Houston (2-13) @ San Francisco (3-12)
Monster Park, San Francisco-4:05 CBS Favorite-Texans by 3
The Reggie Bush Bowl comes down to who can make the most mistakes. The Texans will probably do like they have all season, mess up their big chance. If the Niners win, look for Reggie Bush to suddenly get a desire to stay in school. If the Texans win, Reggie Bush could very well be going to New Orleans.
Fast Fact: Don't bother looking for any history or rivalry in this matchup, This is the first meeting between these teams. The Texans have now played all the other 31 teams in the NFL.
Pick-San Francisco

Tennessee (4-11) @ Jacksonville (11-4)
Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville-4:05 CBS
Favorite-Jags by 4
The Jags, locked into the #5 slot will likely rest their starters. Byron Leftwich might get a little playing time to knock the rust off, but the Jags gain little by playing their starters. The Titans play teams tough, but can rarely seal the deal. This will be the case yet again. Fast Fact: Jeff Fisher is the 2nd longest tenured coach in the NFL (Bill Cowher is the dean) This is the first time he has had back to back double digits loss years Pick-Jacksonville

Chicago (11-4) @ Minnesota (8-7)
H.H.H. Metrodome, Minneapolis-4:15 FOX
Favorite-Vikings by 4
This was shaping up to be a big game, but the Bears won knocking the divisional implications out, and the Vikings lost knocking any playoff implications out. The Bears comfortably slated in the #2 NFC playoff seed will rest their starters and the Vikes will go 9-7 and miss the playoffs again. Fast Fact: The Bears are the first team other than the Packers to win the NFC North since it was created in 2002
Pick-Minnesota

Washington (9-6) @ Philadelphia (6-9)
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia-4:15
FOX Favorite-Redskins by 8
Normally I'd say that Philly would like nothing more than to deny their bitter divisional rivals the chance to get to the playoffs, but after their stinkeroo against the Cardinals they have officially mailed it in. The Skins despite a number of distractions (Mark Brunell's health, the incessant caring from LaVar Arrington and the goofiness of Clinton Portis) are focused and are bearing down on a playoff berth. Fast Fact: The Redskins are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999 in Joe Gibbs' second season. They made the playoffs in Joe Gibbs' second season the first time he coached the Redskins Pick-Washington

St. Louis (5-10) @ Dallas (9-6)
Texas Stadium; Irving, TX-8:30 ESPN
Favorite-Cowboys by 12 By the time this game kicks off, the Pokes will already know their playoff fate. (Likely out) They will then play this game like they want to be anywhere but there and Tuna will whine that he has nothing left to accomplish and retire (for another year or so) Fast Fact: In sharp contrast to the Falcons who have never had back to back winning seasons in their history, Bill Parcells has not had back to back losing seasons in his coaching career.
Pick-Dallas
Last Week: 8-8 Overall:
152-88 (blog) 150-90 pick group

Bowl Games to watch Some but not all of the pertinent bowl games are on January 2 as the college game has deferred its traditional new years slot to the pro games. Here are a couple to watch as you continue to recover from your New Years overindulgence.

Sugar Bowl
Georgia Dome, Atlanta-8:00 ABC
West Virigina (10-1 Big East Champs) vs Georgia (10-2 SEC Champs) The Bulldogs get the luckiest of lucky breaks. UGA is but 100 miles from the Georgia Dome where this years game is to be played, since the Superdome is still recovering from the effects of Hurricane Katrina. Expect a tough game from these two defensive minded squads, but it'll be almost a home game for the Bulldogs

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa-11am
Iowa (7-4) vs Florida (8-3)
Iowa wouldn't mind a win less heartstopping that the hail mary that beat LSU in this game last year. While Urban Meyer looks to calm the wolves that are howling because the Gators were long ago out of the running for any kind of championship.

Fiesta Bowl
Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe- 4:30p ABC
Ohio State (9-2) vs Notre Dame (9-2)
Fiesta Bowl organizers are giddy about this big name matchup, but this game is deceptively one sided. The Bucks have big game expereince and playing in the rugged Big 10 gives them the trench warfare knowhow that the Irish with their soft schedule lack.
Pick-Ohio State

Gator Bowl
Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville-12:30p NBC
Louisville (9-2) vs Va. Tech (10-2) The would-be bullies of the Big East take on a former Big East bully now ACC heavy. It'll be fun to see if stud LB Elvis Dumeril can get a bead on quicksilver QB Marcus Vick. This could be a shootout.

Whatever your plans are for the weekend, be safe and have a prosperous and happy new year.