Week17 Picks

The football gods have been so unkind to me this season. With the exception of a mutt-like wild card run through one league and a totally unexpected domination of another league my 2005 season has been the pits. My picks and prognastication has been similarly uneven. The minute I whine about 10-6 weeks, I get an 8-8. That will teach me to keep my yap shut.

Points to Ponder The San Diego Chargers were eliminated from playoff contention last week with their 20-7 loss to Kansas City in a sloppy Arrowhead. The AFC breathes a sigh of relief as the Chargers have logged wins against no fewer than four playoff bound teams (NE, NYG, Wash, Ind) That was a team no one wanted to see in the playoffs.

The Bills stunning upset of the Bengals was aided by a first a Kickoff return and Interception return for a TD by the same person. Doing that in Madden isn't the same

Monday Night Football isn't over, its just moving to ESPN in 2006. The 555 episode run is the longest for a sports program and the 2nd longest for a regular TV show (behind the indomitable 60 Minutes) The Jets started and ended the shows ABC tenure by the same losing score of 31-21 (In 1970 they lost to the Browns and lost to Pats Monday) that they kicked off MNF.

The playoff picture cleared up quite a bit over the weekend. Almost all of the divisions got locked up, Except for the NFC East where the G-men are in and either the Skins or Pokes will join them.

There are by my count three playoff spots and four teams trying to get them. Week 17 should be fun With the Pats win over the Jets (one of the few that I got right)

The Pats are at .500...let me explain before you call me a moron. The Pats are 354-354-9 lifetime since their inception in 1960. This is the first time they've been at that mark since 1969 when they were 60-60-9. (No ties in 35 years...) Thats a lot of bad football, recent history not withstanding. They were as far below as 54 games below .500 in 1994. I wonder how long it would take the Bengals to get out of the hole they are in??? Don't get me started on the Cards.

Artest: Who's sorry now? Ron Artest is the biggest idiot this side of TO, after all he went through, The petulant Pacer forward wants out, then after realizing that no one really wants the trouble, wants back in. There are some bridges you can't burn, and Artest burned them. He might join Spree as talent malcontents that are looking for work,

Now on to the picks:
NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 17

Saturday, December 31
Denver (12-3) @ San Diego (9-6)
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego-4:30 CBS
Favorite- Chargers by 11
All the Chargers can do is play spoiler for other teams, Denver got an unexpected Christmas present when the Bengals lost to the Bills and handed them the coveted bye week seeding. The Broncos will likely rest many of their key starters, making the Chargers the best 10 win team not to make the playoffs. Fast Fact: Mike Anderson's 1014 yards continues the long string of thousand yard Bronco RB's, consider that that before Terrell Davis started the current streak of 1000 yard rushers the Broncos only had three in the fifteen years previous.
Pick-San Diego

NY Giants (10-5) @ Oakland (4-11)
McAfee Stadium, Oakland-8:00 ESPN
Favorite- Giants by 10
The G-Men have a tough situation, stay healthy enough to fly back cross country for the playoffs. A win gets the G-Men a division title and a home playoff game, while a loss sends them to another road game. The Raiders want it all to be over. Fast Fact:Tiki Barber is a longshot at best to catch Shaun Alexander and be the first G-Man to win the NFL Rushing title since 1951
Pick-New York Giants

Sunday, January 1

Arizona (5-10) @ Indianapolis (13-2)
RCA Dome, Indianapolis-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Colts by 7
The Colts have other things on their minds besides a bad Cardinal squad. They'll play hard enough to ensure that they are in a full blown slump prior to their first round playoff bye. Fast Fact:Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison will finish with over 3,500, 1000 and 1000 yards passing, rushing and receiving respectively for the third straight year and the sixth time since becoming teammates in 1999.
Pick-Indy

Baltimore (6-9) @ Cleveland (5-10)
Browns Stadium, Cleveland-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Ravens by 3
In the Modell Bowl, the question remains which of these young QB's will show that their recent solid play is the real deal? The Browns Charlie Frye or the Ravens Kyle Boller? Fast Fact: The Ravens have won 4 of the past 5 of this emotionally charged series. Pick-Baltimore

Buffalo (5-10) @ NY Jets (3-12)
The Meadowlands; East Rutherford, NJ-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Bills by 2
The Bills are feeling better about themselves after springing a surprise upset on the playoff bound Bengals. The Jets??? They are still dreaming of Matt Lienart in home colors. They still have a slim chance of getting Reggie Bush. This could very well be Herman Edwards last game as the Jets coach, rumors are very strong that he is contemplating a jump to friendlier pastures in KC. This game will give him more thought to leaving Gotham Fast Fact: The Jets need to score 24 points to avoid their worst scoring season since going to a 16 game schedule in 1978
Pick-Buffalo

Carolina (10-5) @ Atlanta (8-7)

Georgia Dome, Atlanta-1:00 FOX Favorite-Panthers by 4 Carolina badly needs this win, to get in to the postseason. Atlanta wants to play spoiler. One wants to think that in front of their home crowd, the Falcons will play tough, but the Panthers know that a win gets them into the playoffs and possibly the NFC South crown if things go right so they will rely on their punishing D to make life hard on Michael Vick. Fast Fact: The Falcons have never had back to back winning seasons in their franchise history, a win here would achieve that. Pick-Carolina

Cincinnati (11-4) @ Kansas City (9-6)
Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, MO-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Chiefs by 8
The Bengals want to tune up for the playoffs and keep their starters healthy. They do not want to go in with a two game losing streak, but they face a daunting task in a Chiefs squad that has a slim playoff chance and wants to send their rumored outgoing coach out a winner. If the Bengals can slow down a rampaging Larry Johnson (8 straight 100+ yard games) they can get the ball into the hands of their potent offense and pick on the Chiefs bad secondary. Look for Jon Kitna to use this game as an audtion to other teams that they can find some use out of him in 2006. Fast Fact: The Bengals seek to match their franchise high in wins with 12, in which they made the super bowl both times
Pick-Cincy

Detroit (5-10) @ Pittsburgh (10-5)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Steelers by 14
The Steelers are rolling and need only a win over a hapless Lions team that packed it in a long time ago to make the playoffs. This will be one long party for Steeler fans as this is their last home game of the season. If the Steelers get any kind of a sizable lead look for Big Ben and the Bus to be given rest in preparation for a possible showdown with the Bengals on wild card weekend. Fast Facts: Hines Ward is 65 receiving yards from cracking the 1,000 yard mark for the 5th straight year. The Lions have not won in Pittsburgh since 1955
Pick-Pittsburgh (survivor)

Miami (8-7) @ New England (10-5)
Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Patriots by 6 The Pats will rest many of their key players as this is a meaningless game. The Fins will look to complete their startling improvement from their four win campaign of 2004. Fast Fact:Even if he doesn't play against the Fins, Tom Brady will be the first Patriot to lead the NFL in passing yards.
Pick New England

New Orleans (3-12) @ Tampa Bay (10-5)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Bucs by 14
The Bucs got a dramatic win over the Falcons and need only to beat the sleepwalking Saints to get in to the playoffs and possibly win the NFC South. All this in front of a happy home crowd. What more could Chucky want?
Fast Fact: The Bucs are seeking to make their first playoff appearance since steamrolling the Raiders in the Super Bowl three years ago.
Pick-Tampa Bay

Seattle (13-2) @ Green Bay (3-12)
Lambeau Field; Green Bay, WI-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Packers by 5
The only question here is if Shaun Alexander will play any and break the TD record he holds with Priest Holmes. Matt Hasselbeck can say that they are going to score today and not sound like the idiot he was in the 2003 playoffs. The old sentiment in me wants to send Brett Favre out in a blaze of glory in possibly his last game as a Packer. I've tried that tack twice before and been burned, I won't go for three. Fast Fact: Seattle has set a franchise record for wins, but has the longest dry spell of any team in playoff wins. They haven't won a playoff game since beating Denver in the AFC Wild Card game in 1984
Pick-Seattle

Houston (2-13) @ San Francisco (3-12)
Monster Park, San Francisco-4:05 CBS Favorite-Texans by 3
The Reggie Bush Bowl comes down to who can make the most mistakes. The Texans will probably do like they have all season, mess up their big chance. If the Niners win, look for Reggie Bush to suddenly get a desire to stay in school. If the Texans win, Reggie Bush could very well be going to New Orleans.
Fast Fact: Don't bother looking for any history or rivalry in this matchup, This is the first meeting between these teams. The Texans have now played all the other 31 teams in the NFL.
Pick-San Francisco

Tennessee (4-11) @ Jacksonville (11-4)
Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville-4:05 CBS
Favorite-Jags by 4
The Jags, locked into the #5 slot will likely rest their starters. Byron Leftwich might get a little playing time to knock the rust off, but the Jags gain little by playing their starters. The Titans play teams tough, but can rarely seal the deal. This will be the case yet again. Fast Fact: Jeff Fisher is the 2nd longest tenured coach in the NFL (Bill Cowher is the dean) This is the first time he has had back to back double digits loss years Pick-Jacksonville

Chicago (11-4) @ Minnesota (8-7)
H.H.H. Metrodome, Minneapolis-4:15 FOX
Favorite-Vikings by 4
This was shaping up to be a big game, but the Bears won knocking the divisional implications out, and the Vikings lost knocking any playoff implications out. The Bears comfortably slated in the #2 NFC playoff seed will rest their starters and the Vikes will go 9-7 and miss the playoffs again. Fast Fact: The Bears are the first team other than the Packers to win the NFC North since it was created in 2002
Pick-Minnesota

Washington (9-6) @ Philadelphia (6-9)
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia-4:15
FOX Favorite-Redskins by 8
Normally I'd say that Philly would like nothing more than to deny their bitter divisional rivals the chance to get to the playoffs, but after their stinkeroo against the Cardinals they have officially mailed it in. The Skins despite a number of distractions (Mark Brunell's health, the incessant caring from LaVar Arrington and the goofiness of Clinton Portis) are focused and are bearing down on a playoff berth. Fast Fact: The Redskins are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999 in Joe Gibbs' second season. They made the playoffs in Joe Gibbs' second season the first time he coached the Redskins Pick-Washington

St. Louis (5-10) @ Dallas (9-6)
Texas Stadium; Irving, TX-8:30 ESPN
Favorite-Cowboys by 12 By the time this game kicks off, the Pokes will already know their playoff fate. (Likely out) They will then play this game like they want to be anywhere but there and Tuna will whine that he has nothing left to accomplish and retire (for another year or so) Fast Fact: In sharp contrast to the Falcons who have never had back to back winning seasons in their history, Bill Parcells has not had back to back losing seasons in his coaching career.
Pick-Dallas
Last Week: 8-8 Overall:
152-88 (blog) 150-90 pick group

Bowl Games to watch Some but not all of the pertinent bowl games are on January 2 as the college game has deferred its traditional new years slot to the pro games. Here are a couple to watch as you continue to recover from your New Years overindulgence.

Sugar Bowl
Georgia Dome, Atlanta-8:00 ABC
West Virigina (10-1 Big East Champs) vs Georgia (10-2 SEC Champs) The Bulldogs get the luckiest of lucky breaks. UGA is but 100 miles from the Georgia Dome where this years game is to be played, since the Superdome is still recovering from the effects of Hurricane Katrina. Expect a tough game from these two defensive minded squads, but it'll be almost a home game for the Bulldogs

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa-11am
Iowa (7-4) vs Florida (8-3)
Iowa wouldn't mind a win less heartstopping that the hail mary that beat LSU in this game last year. While Urban Meyer looks to calm the wolves that are howling because the Gators were long ago out of the running for any kind of championship.

Fiesta Bowl
Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe- 4:30p ABC
Ohio State (9-2) vs Notre Dame (9-2)
Fiesta Bowl organizers are giddy about this big name matchup, but this game is deceptively one sided. The Bucks have big game expereince and playing in the rugged Big 10 gives them the trench warfare knowhow that the Irish with their soft schedule lack.
Pick-Ohio State

Gator Bowl
Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville-12:30p NBC
Louisville (9-2) vs Va. Tech (10-2) The would-be bullies of the Big East take on a former Big East bully now ACC heavy. It'll be fun to see if stud LB Elvis Dumeril can get a bead on quicksilver QB Marcus Vick. This could be a shootout.

Whatever your plans are for the weekend, be safe and have a prosperous and happy new year.

Week 16 Picks

You can never trust the Packers, period. Am I bitter? A bit, you would like to think that I can get past my hatred of that team in Wisconsin and appreciate the solid playing career of Brett Favre. The Packers then lay a green and gold egg and lose 48-3 to the Ravens who wouldn't know an offense if it hit them in the face multiple times. When Favre is throwing balls that Deion Sanders (Is he still in this league??) Consider there were two separate four and three game stretches where the Ravens didn't score 48 points total. Oh well, I should be happy that the Pack is back in the crapper, but I can dare to dream that Brett Favre will have that last golden game against the Bears and blow up their playoff plans. Its a wild dream, but hey. 10-6 last week is pattern I wish I could break out of. There are too many games that make you scratch your head and are too close to call, but I give it a shot. Once again, humbly submitted for your approval are this weeks picks. NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 16 Saturday, December 24 Atlanta (8-6) @ Tampa Bay (9-5) Raymond James Stadium-1:00 FOX Favorite-Bucs by 3 Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives, though the Bucs are in better shape neither can afford another loss. Atlanta has never had back to back winning seasons in their team history. With Carolina on their docket, that is still in question. Both teams can pound the rock and a repeat of November 20th 30-27 thriller could be on tap, but the Bucs are much better than the 28-0 thumping that they got last week and the Falcons aren't much better than the loss they took at Chicago. The Bucs put their playoff run into overdrive here. Fast Fact: For all the hand wringing about Michael Vick's stats, he threw for over 300 yards the last time he faced the Bucs. Don't think it will happen again. Pick-Tampa Bay Buffalo (4-10) @ Cincinnati (11-3) Paul Brown Stadiium-1:00 CBS Favorite-Bengals by 13 Someone needs to ask Takeo Spikes how it feels to play on a winner. What? He left the Bengals two years ago? You say that the Bills haven't had a winning season since he got there. Damn, one could only wish that Corey Dillon had suffered the same fate. But at least Dillon didn't throw potshot at Cincy, like Spikes did. It is refreshing to see him and Big Fatty...er Daddy Wilkinson in the non-playoff purgatory. In any case, the Bengals want to stay crisp for their imminent playoff appearance. If the AFC North champs get a sizable lead early, you won't see Carson Palmer or Chad Johnson much late. The Bills have no defensive presence and their offense is spotty at best. Most teams get a lead and dare the Bills to throw their way back into the game, something they can't do. Fast Fact: The last time the Bengals beat the Bills was the 1988 AFC Championship game. The Bills can only pray the game is as close as that one was. Pick-Cincy Dallas (8-6) @ Carolina (10-4) Bank of America Stadium; Charlotte, NC-1:00 FOX Favorite- Panthers by 5 That once smug look that was on Tuna and Jerry Jones face has evaporate as the Pokes have lost three of four and have fallen way behind in the playoff race. Carolina is bearing down hard on the NFC South title and is no sort of giving mood. Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker have 7.5 sacks apiece and can cause all sorts of mischief with their hard-hitting ball hawking talents. With the Pokes spotty offensive line and a lead-footed Drew Bledsoe to feast on, the lights are about to go out on the Pokes' playoff hopes. Fast Fact: The Panthers have beaten the Cowboys in 2 of their three meetings in Charlotte, both those wins were in the playoffs. Pick-Carolina Detroit (4-10) vs New Orleans (3-11) Alamodome; San Antonio, TX -1:00 FOX Favorite-Saints by 3 The offical who cares game of the week, pits two teams that have quit for different reasons. The Lions looked like they wanted to be elsewhere in their debacle loss to the Bengals. The Saints just want it all to be over. Neither team will know how to react for a large crowd. The Saints still have the ability to score, though Todd Bouman (St. Cloud State grads should not be NFL starters) is now at the helm. The Detroit defense can stiffen at times, but their offense has only averaged 11 points on the road. Not a good sign Fast Fact: The Saints don't like their dome away from dome, they have lost their last two in San Antonio. The Motor City Kitties are the perfect tonic for that problem Pick-New Orleans Jacksonville (10-4) @ Houston (2-12) Reliant Stadium, Houston-1:00 CBS Favorite-Jags by 6 The Jags seem to struggle against teams that they should be taking to the woodshed and the Texans are feeling a bit froggy after thumping Arizona, damaging their chances in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes. Nevertheless the Jags offense does enough under David Garrard and the Texans don't have the offense to stand up to the punishing attack of the Jags D. Fast Fact: The Jags are the only team that the Texans have an overall winning record against at 4-3. The Jags are a good bet to even that mark. Pick-Jacksonville. NY Giants (10-4) @ Washington (8-6) FedEx Field; Landover MD-1:00 FOX Favorite-Redskins by 3 The Skins, left for dead a couple weeks ago have slugged their way back into the fringes of playoff contention, and are aching to get revenge for the 36-0 humilation that the G-Men hung on them in week 8. The Giants have the pedal to the floor and are playing solid, they've won close one more often than not and with a playoff berth in reach would love to slam the coffin on their divisional rival. Fast Fact: Tiki Barber broke theGiants team record for rushing in a season. With two games to go he has 1,577 yards bettering his old mark of 1,518. If he gets on a roll like he did last week. Clinton Portis will have another 4 carry 9 yard performance and the Skins will be doomed. Pick-New York Giants Pittsburgh (9-5) @ Cleveland (5-9) Browns Stadium, Cleveland-1:00 CBS Favorite-Steelers by 7 Give Romeo Crennel credit for keeping his charges playing hard. They might have also found their quarterback in the form of Charlie Frye, he will get a stern test from a rugged Pitt defense that has given up but 12 points in the past two games. The Steelers have picked themselves up smartly and are poised to make a late playoff dash, they will continue to use the formula that works. A heavy dose of running and keeping Ben Roethlisberger from taking any real hits. Fast Fact:Beleive it or not, the Browns actually lead the Steelers in the overall series 55-52. The Steelers will continue to close that gap much in manner that they have lately winning their last four meetings by an average 11 points. Pick-Pittsburgh San Diego (9-5) @ Kansas City (8-6) Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, MO1:00 CBS Favorite-Chiefs by 1 One of the better early matchups has two teams needing a win to keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive. KC is all but dead if they lose and still might be if they win. SD need to win and get a bit of help, but they still have an outside chance of winning the AFC West. Both teams want to establish their will early and use their running game. Though LaDainian Tomlinson is banged up, Michael Turner might be able to pick up some of the slack. If the Chiefs keep the game close they can utilize Larry Johnson in the same way. The Chargers are not intimidated by hostile crowds as they went in to Indy and handed them a stunning upset. They will need more of that same steely resolve to win in one of the toughest venues in the NFL. Fast Fact: Larry Johnson has filled the void left by Priest Holmes injury quite capably, he has rushed for 100+ yards in each of the past seven games. They'll need another strong performance to hold off a Charger squad desperate for a win. Pick-San Diego San Francisco (2-12) @ St. Louis (5-9) Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis-1:00 FOX Favorite-Rams 9 The Niners have nosed back in the lead in Reggie Bush sweepstakes, they'll be aided by a Rams team that is trying to avoid its 1st 10 loss season since 1998, back when they were the "same ol sorry a** Rams" They're time of elite status is for all intents and purposes over. The Rams will want to avenge their shocking season opening loss and get Ryan Fitzpatrick some good experience Fast Fact: Speaking of losses, the Niners have double digit digits losses in 5 of the past 7 years. Thats a trend that won't change anytime soon. Pick-St. Louis Tennessee (4-10) @ Miami (7-7) Dolphins Stadium, Miami-1:00 CBS Favorite-Dolphins 5.5 Isn't ironic that the Fins win and get eliminated? They are getting to be one of the better young team in the league and a team to watch next year. That does them no good now, but they will finish strong against a weak Titans team playing out the string. Chris Chambers gets his turn to pick on the young Titans secondary and he will have his way. Fast Fact: The Titans have lead at the half in each of their past three road games, and have lost all three scoring a grand total of seven points. The Fins aren't an offensive juggernaut, but they have enough to put on the Titans Pick-Miami Philadelphia (6-8) @ Arizona (4-10) Sun Devil Stadium; Tempe, AZ-4:05 FOX Favorite-Cards by 1 Philly wants to prove that they aren't a drab team, but they're in the land of irrelavants right now. The Cards are hopeless. Will Denny Green last long enough to get his one time draft pick Daunte Culpepper?. Philly will sit back in a deep zone and dare the Cards to run. With Arizona's running game but a rumor. The Eagles will do all they can to make live miserable for backup Josh McCown Fast Fact: The winner of this game will take the lead in this series, its currently tied at 53 with 5 ties. Philly has a chance to at least salvage some pride out of a nightmarish season. Pick-Philly Indianapolis (13-1) @ Seattle (12-2) Qwest Field, Seattle-4:15 CBS Favorite-Seahawks by 8 Super Bowl XL preview??? In name only. Both teams will be resting starters and will want to show each other nothing in the happenstance that they might meet again in Detroit in 6 weeks. The Colts will no doubt be playing with heavy hearts for their coach who lost his son. The Seahawks will try to get to Peyton Manning early, if they do and get a lead, they'll gladly give the ball to Shawn Alexander all day and let him chase Priest Holmes TD record. Fast Fact: Both teams are riding long winning streaks, the Seahawks have won nine straight regular season games at Qwest Field; While the Colts are the definition of a rude guest having had won their last seven road games. The Colts will show nothing and will likely rest Manning and Harrison who are nursing injuries. Wonks like JT the Brick will say the Colts are slippin', but they will still have a say-so in the playoffs/ Pick-Seattle Oakland (4-10) @ Denver (11-3) Invesco Field @ Mile High, Denver-4:15 CBS Favorite-Broncos by 12.5 The Broncos need no slips as they try to hold off the Bengals for the coveted #2 seed and the playoff bye week. The Raiders look haven't been in a game in four weeks. As long as Jake Plummer doesn't try to get cute, the Broncos will use their multi-facted running game and wait paitently for the Oakland offense to self-destruct. Fast Fact: The road team has won each of the last four meetings, that will not be the case this time. Pick-Denver Sunday, December 25 Chicago (10-4) @ Green Bay (3-11) Lambeau Field, Green Bay-5:00 FOX Favorite-Bears by 6 The devil in me wants to say that Wreck...er Rex Grossman will boo-boo on himself on the fabled frozen tundra. But seeing how the Packers have...uh...packed it in. My dreams of a showdown game between the Vikes and Bears will be that, just a dream. How I hope to be wrong on this pick, but I know better. Look for the Bears to grind out the clock and keep Grossman on a short leash. The Bears will simply sit back and wait for Favre to force it, which he will with a non-existant running game and take the ball back. Fast Fact: One of the leagues oldest rivalries, these teams have played nearly 200 games. The Bears lead the series 86-78-8 Pick-Chicago Minnesota (8-6) @ Baltimore (5-9) M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore-8:30 ESPN Favorite-Ravens by 3 The Ravens are full of vigor after taking the Pack back o' the woodshed. They don't get it nearly as easy against an angry Minnesota team who got embarrassed in their crib by the Steelers. The Vikes still harbor playoff dreams however slim they are getting as the Bears will have likely clinched the NFC North by the time this game kicks off. The Vikes will still need wins to try to stay in the wild card hunt. Fast Fact: After being a one of the worst teams on the road in recent years, the Vikes are riding a three game road winning streak Pick-Minnesota Monday, December 26 New England (9-5) @ NY Jets (3-11) The Meadowlands; East Rutherford, NJ-9:00 ABC Favorite-Patriots by 6 Take a long last look, as this is the last Monday Night game on ABC. The football institution moves to ESPN next year where I fear that it will not be as big a deal. The new Sunday Night game will be on NBC and I doubt it will be as hyped up as all the Monday Night games were on ABC. Oh there is a game and it will be a snoozer, the Pats are all but locked into the #4 seed and the Jets are dreaming of Matt Linehart under center. Fast Fact: The Jets are glad to be at home, as they went 0-8 on the road this season, the last time they went winless on the road was 1964. That next year they got Joe Namath. Could another star power QB in the making? Pick-New England (survivor) Last week 10-6 Overall 142-82 (pick group) 144-80 (blog) If I don't see you personally, I want to wish a very Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Joyous Kwanzaa or Happy Holiday season no matter what you beleive don't believe whatever. Its just my seasons greetings for you and your peeps. I'm appreciate you reading my prognastications weekly. And for those that got the NCAA spec sheet last year, it'll drop again in February. For all those that don't know I got 63 of the 65 teams right. Joe Lunardi of ESPN should be so lucky!.

NFL Top 12

The playoff picture gets muddier as the weather gets colder. There are some truths though Indy is in, funk what you saw in the loss to the Chargers the Colts are still the team to beat, period. Cincy is in to the delight of their long suffering fans. They are finishing strong and will be a tough out in the playoffs New England is in, they are far from finished and will have to be dealt with Denver is in, but looking over their shoulder trying to hold off a hard charging Bengals squad that covets the #2 seed they hold. Seattle is in and a win from clinching home field advantage

Every playoff team will have at least 10 wins, the division winners will have at the very least 10 or 11 there will be no punks in this Super Bowl chase.

Dallas damaged its playoff chances by getting blasted in Washington, Tuna looks like he might give it up soon

Minnesota is on life support, they will need help to get to the postseason

Chicago despite being in the drivers seat in the NFC North is sitting on a QB controversy and it might cripple their playoff chances.

The NFC South is still a mess, but the Panthers might be taking control

The Jags and Steelers are in control of their own destiny to get to the playoffs

No one wants to deal with the Chargers now.

With those truths esposed, lets look at the Hot 12 in the NFL


1) Indy 13-1 last week 1 AFC South Champs, #1 seed in AFC playoffs(Lost to San Diego 26-17, next at Seattle) No such thing as a good loss, but Peyton and Co need not the added weight of perfection in going for 1st Super Bowl in Indy

2) Seattle 12-2 2 NFC West Champs (Beat Tennessee, 34-23 next vs Indy) This won't be a Super Bowl XL preview, both teams will be extremely vanilla

3) Cincinnati 11-3, 4 AFC North Champs (Beat Detroit 41-17, next vs Buffalo) Don't wanna hear 1990 again, 15 years of frustration vanishes. And still can get that prized 1st week playoff bye

4) Denver 11-3, 3 clinched playoff spot (Beat Buffalo 28-17 next vs Oakland) Looked sloppy before putting away dispirited Bills, a slipup could put them in #3 AFC spot

5) Carolina 10-4 5(Beat New Orleans 27-10 next vs Dallas) Locking down the NFC South

6) New York Giants 10-4, 7 (Beat Kansas City 27-17 next at Washington) Need to stay in NFC East top slot, they won't survive wild card malestrom

7) Chicago 10-4, 6 (Beat Atlanta 16-3 next at Green Bay) Ugly wins beat pretty losses, but its the wrong time for a QB controversy

8) New England 9-5, 9 (Beat Tampa Bay 28-0 next vs New York Jets) Quietly rounding into postseason form

9) San Diego 9-5, NR (Beat Indy 26-17 next at Kansas City)
The team no one wants to face in the postseason

10) Pittsburgh 9-5, 12 (Beat Minnesota 18-3 next at Cleveland) Easy road to the playoffs (at Cle, vs Det)

11) Tampa Bay 9-5 11(Lost to New England 28-0, next vs Atlanta) Bucs Freeze in the cold but still controls its playoff destiny

12) Minnesota 8-6, 10 (Lost to Pittsburgh 18-3, next at Baltimore) Bad time to take a tough loss, time is running out.

Dropped Out Dallas, 9 8-6 lost to Washington next at Carolina Tuna spoiled: Pokes get blasted by Skins and are on playoff life support

Week 15 Picks

10-6? I'm fading fast in my picks. There were some to be sure I should have known better than to pick the Texans and it annoys me that the Pokes get all the late calls. But no one saw the Dolphins beating the Chargers in San Diego (Liar! No you didn't) Anyway, things have cleared up a bit in the NFL playoff race, The Patriots and Bengals need only to win to clinch division titles and guaranteed home playoff games (wouldn't a Pats Bengals playoff game be interesting? Alas, they're on the opposite side of the playoff bracket) The Bengals might be division champs before they even finish the first quarter of their matchup with Detroit. If Pittsburgh loses to Minnesota, the Bengals clinch and since the Bengals play a late game at Ford Field, they could be celebrating their 1st division title since 1990. The NFC is a still a bit of mess, with only the Seahawks having clinched a playoff spot and division title two weeks ago, The Bears and Giants are closing fast on playoff spots, but not division titles and the NFC South is anyone's call. Still there are some good games and snoozers. The Reggie Bush sweepstakes run as follows: Houston 1-12 (Hey Kris Brown, nice shank!) San Francisco 2-11(Kevan Barlow says they're set at RB, ummm yeah) New Orleans 3-10 (I'd stay in school if I had to go here.) New York Jets 3-10 (They're blowing it with this winning streak!!! Hello? You're supposed to lose the games!) With Houston looking to clean house after the rebuilding scheme of Dom Capers, is that Dan Reeves in the wings there its anyone guess who the Texans might take, and Frisco looking a like a ghastly shell of their once dominating self. Its hard to handicap who will do what when the draft order is established. One thing I'm glad to see is that neither my beloved Vikes nor the Bengals are in this discussion. With no college football on Saturday the NFL spreads out it schedule and this week and 12/31 there will be pro games on Saturday. Week 16 has all but two games on Saturday to keep a host of games from being played on Christmas. Nevertheless, humbly submitted for your review and approval are this weeks picks. NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 15 Saturday, December 17 Tampa Bay (9-4) @ New England (8-5) Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA-1:30 FOX Favorite-Patriots by 4.5 Tom Brady is starting to settle into a groove and the Pats aren't winning pretty, but they are winning and thats all that matters in December. The Bucs need this win badly to keep pace in a vicious NFC playoff scramble. Look for the Pats to try to shut down the Bucs strong ground game and dare young QB Chris Simms to beat them. It has been long documented that the Bucs are not the best of cold weatther teams. Since it looks like it will be the typical northeast type of weather at the Razor and the Bucs will get cut. Pick-New England Kansas City (8-5) @ NY Giants (9-4) Giants Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ-5:00 CBS Favorite-Giants 3 The Giants and Chiefs are both coming off of tight road games. The G-men let a bad Philly team hang around before finally getting the win. The Chiefs blew a 4th quarter lead by letting Drew Bledsoe pick them apart and a chance to force OT when Lawrence Tynes pushed a last second field goal attempt to the right. The continued maturation of Eli Manning continues and he will shine against a battered Chiefs secondary. Larry Johnson might get his, but if the G-Men get a decent lead he will be no factor Pick-Giants Denver (10-3) @ Buffalo (4-9) Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard Park, NY-8:30 ESPN Favorite-Broncos 8 This is not the best time to be in upstate New York, but the Broncos aren't worried about the cold and the Bills aren't worried about the playoffs. Someone should go find Takeo Spikes and ask him what its like to play for a "true playoff team" Ooops thats right, he has never done it. The Broncos can lock up a playoff spot and aren't in the mood to let a bickering Bills team hang around. Pick-Denver Sunday, December 18 Arizona (4-9) @ Houston (1-12) Reliant Stadium Houston-1:00 FOX Favorite-Cardinals 1 These two teams have never played each other and after this meeting one will wonder why they were on each others schedule. Kurt Warner can put up the big numbers and usually the other team can get the points back in spades and just wait for the inevitable Warner brain cramp. This won't be the case against a Texan squad that after the shank job last week is already pre-producing Reggie Bush jerseys. Dan Reeves was recently hired by the Texans as a consultant and you'd think he'd be in line for the job, but seeing how much work this team needs, he might just stay retired. Pick-Arizona Carolina (9-4) vs New Orleans (3-10) Tiger Stadium; Baton Rouge, LA-1:00 FOX Favorite-Panthers 7 Paybacks a mutha! The Panthers were the unwilling victims of a Saints feelgood story in the season's first week. Now on the hunt for a playoff spot, they have no use for being the foil for another upset. Add to boot that they looked terrible in getting spanked by the Bucs, it all spells a long afternoon in the Bayou for the 20,000 that will spread out amongst the cavernous SEC venue. Pick-Carolina NY Jets (3-10) @ Miami (6-7) Dolphins Stadium, Miami-1:00 CBS Favorite-Dolphins 7.5 The Fins showed some gumption by damaging the Chargers playoff hopes with a gritty win in San Diego. The Fins multi-pronged running game is showing steady improvement as Ronnie Brown continues to make a name for himself and Ricky Williams is turning into a valuable trade commodity with a return to his brusing running style. This bodes bad for the Jets, feeling good after a thumping of the Raiders. They put together a good game, but they won't get the kinds of breaks against the Dolphins who still have a glimmer of hope of securing a playoff spot. Pick-Miami Philadelphia (5-8) @ St. Louis (5-8) Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis-1:00 FOX Favorite-Rams 3.5 The Rams who were trying to lock up a playoff berth trampled an Eagles team resting their starters last year. How things have changed neither team is going anywhere but home in three weeks and trying to pick up the pieces of a once promising season. The Eagles to their credit are still playing realtively tough (The Monday night debacle against Seattle notwithstanding). The Rams are trying to ride the rookie arms of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the redoubtable running of Steven Jackson. That should be enough to hold off a prideful Eagles team who make a MASH unit grimace. Pick-St. Louis Pittsburgh (8-5) @ Minnesota (8-5) H.H.H. Metrodome, Minneapolis-1:00 CBS Favorite-Steelers 3 The Steelers are coming off a badly needed win over a good Bears team while the Vikings are further distancing themselves from their early season debauchery and debacles with a six game winning streak. The health of Ben Roethlisberger will remain a question for the balance of the season while their suddenly inconsistent running game has hurt. The Vikes haven't won pretty but the steady leadership of Brad Johnson gets the job done and have the Vikes in serious contention for the playoffs. The Steelers are a tough road team, but the dome conditions will test the compsure and mettle of Roethlisberger. Add to boot the Steelers have played the fewest games indoors in the past five years and it will spell trouble for the road team. Pick-Minnesota San Diego (8-5) @ Indianapolis (13-0) RCA Dome, Indianapolis-1:00 CBS Favorite-Colts 7.5 The Chargers got caught looking ahead to this game and damaged their playoff chances by losing to a beatable Miami team. The Colts locked up the division and home field advantage by winning an easier than it looked game against the Jags. The question for the Colts is how long do they play their starters. Many pundits want the Colts to take an L here. But I see Manning, Harrison and James playing deep into the game. The Chargers are good, but the Colts are clearly on another level. Like I've said the Colts will get beat, but not this week. The Chargers will be another victim on the close but no brass ring lineup the Colts are making. Pick-Indy Seattle (11-2) @ Tennessee (4-9) The Coliseum, Nashvilee-1:00 FOX 3 points in eight quarters...thats how much the Seahawks have given up in their last two games. That does not bode well for a Titans squad searching for some offense. Shaun Alexander should have fun going through the Titans defense that has been punished by the like of Rudi Johnson, Jerome Bettis, Fred Taylor Edgerrin James, and Larry Johnson. Pick-Seattle San Francisco (2-11) @ Jacksonville (9-4) Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville-1:00 FOX Favorite-Jags 14.5 The Jags are in a bad mood, having not backed up their tough talk of beating the Colts and the poor Niners will feel their wrath. Alex Smith has thrown more INT's this season (9) than he did in his collegiate career at Utah and has yet to throw a touchdown pass. This is not a good situation to be put in against a ballhawking, roughneck defense that the Jags possess. This game will get ugly in a hurry. Pick-Jacksonville Cincinnati (10-3) @ Detroit (4-9) Ford Field, Detroit-4:05 CBS Favorite-Bengals 7 The Bengals played down to their opponent when they let a so-so Browns team hang around till the end. This will not be the case this week against a Lions team that look frightenly like the old Bungles of years past. The Bengals excorise any and all demons of the bad old days with a bounce back game by Carson Palmer and if Rudi Johnson gets rolling against a soft Lions interior, look out. Pick-Cincinnati (survivor pick) Cleveland (4-9) @ Oakland (4-9) McAfee Coliseum, Oakland-4:05 CBS Favorite Raiders 3 The Browns played way over their heads in giving the Bengals a hard time last week and the Charlie Frye will continue to learn how to play in hostile enviroments. The Raiders played down to their opponent, looking like clowns in a pitiful performance in New York against the Jets. Black Hole or not, the Raiders have mailed it in and Romeo Crennel will continue to drop hints why this team is much improved. The Browns will steal a game or two down the stretch and this will be one of them. Pick-Cleveland Dallas (8-5) @ Washington (7-6) FedEx Field; Landover, MD-4:15 FOX Favorite-Cowboys 3 For the first time in a long while a late-season Redskins-Cowboys game with meaning. The Pokes got away with an undeserved win against the Chiefs while the Skins keep hanging 'round the fringes of the wild card chase. I know everyone says I have a irrational hatred of Tuna and the Pokes, but they've beaten no one of any consequence on their schedule save two AFC teams and the Giants and struggled to win all of them. The Skins are guilty of their own winnable game letdowns, but I have that feeling that they would love to throw a big monkey wrench in the Pokes postseason plans. Drew Bledsoe is due for another brain cramp game. Pick-Washington Atlanta (8-5) @ Chicago (9-4) Soldier Field, Chicago-8:30 ESPN Favorite- The Falcons despite a badly needed win over the Saints Monday are hurting. Dynamic QB Michael Vick is suffering through bruised ribs which could limit his mobility. Look for the Falcons to lean even more on the speedy tandem of Warrick (Git-er) Dunn and TJ Duckett. The Falcons have played very few games in December or later in cold weather. Though the last time they did, they walked out with a stunning upset over the Packers in the 2002 playoffs. The Falcons are a better team now than they were then and the Bears are starting to doubt themselves after being manhandled by the Steelers and noticing the Vikings charging hard in their rearview. The Bears can only live so long on a stout defense, when the offense dries up like its doing, you're in trouble. Pick-Atlanta Monday, December 19 Green Bay (3-10) @ Baltimore (4-9) M&T Bank Stadium-9:00 ABC Favorite-Ravens 3 The Pack gamely slugged their way to an overtime win against Detroit and they won't need a lot of points to push around a Ravens team that is allergic to offense and whose defense is not up to its usual high standards. The Pack will try to use hot rookie Samkon Gado often and hope he doesn't pull another 7 carry, 8 yard MNF boo-boo job like he did against the Vikings 4 weeks ago. Kyle Boller is a joke, and Brian Billick might lose his job banking on him. This might be Brett Favre's last Monday Night go-round (Though knowing me as a hardcore Vikings fan, you'd be surprised to hear me say I hope its not) he might jsut decide to shine one more time under the lights. Pick-Green Bay Last Week 10-6 Overall: 134-74 (blog) 132-76 (pick group) 20 Days till the USC-Texas showdown!!! Officially now known as the game of the millenium (At least so far)