Week 4 Picks

I had yet another solid week, though Baltimore had me sweating and the Cards did me no favors. I offer an apology to the Saints whom I didn’t think would feed off their crowd in their return to the Superdome. I didn’t mind them getting the win thought. While we get to pick on the Raiders again, there are more intriguing games this week. The unbeaten ranks are down to 7 teams while there are still 6 teams trying to get off of winless island, one of which should do so this week. Also for your consumption are fast facts on each game that I find out when researching the matchups for the week. This further proves that unlike Terry Bradshaw I do my research myself and do not have a flunky feeding it in my ear. Pittsburgh , Denver , NY Giants and Tampa Bay have a bye this week

Sunday October 1
Cowboys (1-1) @ Titans (0-3) LP Field, Nashville-1 (Fox)
Favorite-Cowboys by 9.5
It’s a Fact: First Meeting of these teams since Christmas Night 2000, where the Titans destroyed the Pokes 31-0 Will TO be a go? The Cowboys really don’t need him and are likely to rest him in anticipation of the Eagles matchup in Philly next week. Even with all the alleged suicide talk, the rested Pokes won’t be distracted enough to stumble here. The Titans are a mess and the Vince Young watch will continue in earnest as Kerry Collins gets to feel what a punching bag feels like…again.
Pick-Dallas

Dolphins (1-2) at Texans (0-3)
Reliant Stadium, Houston 1 (CBS)
Favorite-Dolphins by 4 It’s a Fact: The Dolphins make their first trip to Houston to play the Texans; the last time they played in Houston was in 1996, when they played the Oilers. The Dolphins slugged out an ugly win over the Titans and the Texans are already looking to see who they can pass over drafting in 2007 (Adrian Peterson anyone?) The Texans leaky defense should be a continued tonic for the Dolphins anemic offense and the Texans offense only scare the folks in Houston .
Pick-Miami

Cardinals (1-2) at Falcons (2-1)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta , 1 (Fox)
Favorite-Falcons by 7.5 I
t’s a Fact: At 46, Morten Andersen is the oldest player to play in the NFL since George Blanda was kicking for the Raiders at 48 in 1975. Both of these teams come off of weak performances. The Cards are kicking themselves for letting the Rams off the hook last week. The Falcons were with unwitting victim of Superdome magic on Monday. The Falcons overall speed should be enough to push past a Cardinals team still searching for its defensive identity Pick-Atlanta
Colts (3-0) at Jets (2-1) Giants Stadium; East Rutherford , NJ 1 (CBS) Favorite-Colts by 9.5 It’s a Fact: This is the Colts first trip to the Meadowlands to play the Jets since they took a 41-0 beatdown from them in the 2002 AFC wild card round. A first glance the matchup seems intriguing, the Colts are off to their usual strong start, but the Jets are a fraud at 2-1, beating the sorry Titans and the so-so Bills while getting making that Pats game look competitive with a late rush. That game was 24-0 a one point. The Colts if given a lead like that they won’t let it slip. Pick-Indy

Vikings (2-1) at Bills (1-2)
Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard Park, NY-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Bills by 1
It’s a Fact: All three of the Vikings games have been decided by 3 points and all have been final scores in the teens. The Vikes want to bounce back after a tough loss to Chicago , the Bills are way too inconsistent. Both teams are a lot alike, have decent defenses and a credible running game. Though Brad Johnson was winning games in the NFL before JP Losman was out of high school may make a marked difference in experience. I don’t buy into the Vikes outside will have problems I’ve been to Buffalo and its not Siberia …at least not on the 1st of October
Pick-Minnesota

Chargers (2-0) at Ravens (3-0)
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Chargers by 2.5
It’s a Fact: This is the first time in the Ravens history that they have started 3-0 This intriguing conference game pits two of the league’s best defenses. LaDainian Tomlinson needs to get rolling early to keep Ray Lewis and company from pinning their collective ears back and coming full bore at young Philip Rivers. On the other side of the ball Steve McNair has the Ravens offense looking more potent than they have in years. The Ravens D will cause the young Rivers more problems than the talented Chargers D will cause the veteran McNair.
Pick-Baltimore

49ers (1-2) at Chiefs (0-2)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Chiefs by 7
It’s a Fact: The Niners have lost nine of their last 10 vs. AFC opponents The Chiefs come off their bye needing a win, and the 49ers are just the team that they needed to show up. The Niners are improved over recent times, and Alex Smith is maturing, but that won’t cut it. Larry Johnson is due for a breakout game and the soft San Fran D will be accommodating.
Pick-Kansas City

Saints (3-0) at Panthers (1-2)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte-1 (Fox)
Favorite-Panthers by 8.5
It’s a fact: Sean Payton is the first Saints head coach to begin his stint in New Orleans 3-0 The Saints have been the NFL’s feel good story of the young season. Too bad the good feelings will begin to evaporate as the Saints enter a brutal stretch that includes games against Philly, Pittsburgh , Baltimore and Cincinnati . A trip to a better than the record shows Carolina starts the rugged road the Saints must travel. The Saints are decent enough to keep the game close, but Carolina will not let this one get away.
Pick-Carolina

Lions (0-3) at Rams (2-1)
Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis- 4:05 (Fox)
Favorite- Rams 5.5
It’s a Fact: Though these two teams have played each other 79 times, this is the Lions first trip to St. Louis to play the Rams. The Lions have been playing much better, but have nothing to show for it. The Rams 2-1 record is misleading, as they shouldn’t have the wins over the Broncos and Cards. I’m probably going to kick myself for picking this way, but I think that Mike Martz is going to gameplan for the Lions offense all of the Rams weaknesses and take advantage of them. If the Lions offense plays similar to the way they did against the Pack last week, they could steal this one.
Pick-Detroit

Jags (2-1) @ Redskins (2-1)
Fed Ex Field; Landover, MD- 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-Jaguars by 3
It’s a fact: The Redskins win over the Texans was its first in its last 10 vs. AFC teams Mark Brunell found passer refuge against a pitiful Texan defense; he’ll find the sledding much tougher against a rough and ready Jag defense that only has trouble with a guy named Manning. Clinton Portis is the key if he and Ladell Betts get rolling the pressure will lessen on Brunell. I’m just not sold on the Skins offense. And while the Jags offense isn’t pretty, I think it can and will give the Skins suspect D some problems
Pick-Jacksonville

Browns (0-3) @ Raiders (0-2)
McAfee Coliseum, Oakland - 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-Browns by 3
It’s a Fact: The Raiders 55-6 point deficit in their two games is the greatest since they were outscored 99-0 in 1961. That smell emanating from the East Bay is the scent of two rotten teams. The Browns though have some promise as Charlie Frye is light years better than any signal caller for the Raiders. The Browns defense can and will capitalize on the eventual Raider mistakes and make it another long day in Raider nation
Pick-Cleveland

Patriots (2-1) at Bengals (3-0)
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincy-4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-Bengals by 6
It’s a Fact: Pats RB Corey Dillon is the Bengals career rushing leader and the holder of the Pats single season rushing mark. The Bengals of old might letdown after the big win at archrival Pittsburgh , but Marvin Lewis has this squad seriously focused despite the ill-timed antics of Odell Thurman. The Pats are searching for their offense after a pedestrian Sunday night showing against the Broncos, and can ill afford to get into a shootout. The Pats do not have the production capabilities to match the Bengals high-powered offense.
Pick-Cincy

Seahawks (3-0) at Bears (3-0)
Soldier Field, Chicago -8:15 (NBC)
Favorite-Bears by 2.5
It’s a Fact: This is the first meeting of these teams in Chicago since 1999 The defending NFC champs found their offense but the status of Shaun Alexander is a big mystery. If he can go, he’ll make things easier dealing with the rock-solid Bears who can and will cash in on any mistake a team makes. The Seahawks cant count on Matt Hasselbeck to have an insane passing day every week. I’m making this pick under the assumption that Alexander plays.
Pick-Seattle

Monday, October 2
Packers (1-2) at Eagles (2-1)
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia-8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite-Eagles 10.5
It’s a Fact: Both these teams played on Monday night three times last year, and both went 0-3 Both teams come in off impressive road wins, but you have to think that the residue of the Eagles meltdown at the hands of the Giants two weeks ago still lingers. The Pack might have been able to get away with so-so play against a equally sorry team like the Lions but the Eagles bone-crusher defense is a different bird, so to speak
Pick-Philadelphia (lock of the week)

Last Week 10-4
Overall 30-16

Week 3 Picks

12 wins, oh yeah much much better. There have been all sorts of surprises in this young season. No one expected the Panthers, Bucs and Redskins to stumble out of the gate 0-2 nor did anyone expect the Saints, Vikings and Falcons all to be 2-0. The winless and unbeaten ranks will thin this week as six winless teams play each other and six unbeaten teams collide

Panthers (0-2) at Buccaneers (0-2)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa- 1 (Fox)
Favorite-Panthers by 3
What looked at the start of the season as a early showdown for control of the NFC South has turned into the Uh-Oh Bowl. Both teams have struggled at seasons start and both need a win badly. Chris Simms will have to face the hard rush of Julius Peppers and co. Uh-Oh is right
Pick-Carolina

Bears (2-0) at Vikings (2-0)
HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis 1 (Fox)
Favorite-Bears by 3
Both teams in this matchup have started impressively. Chicago wants to turn the game into a track meet while the Vikings offense while not pretty has been quietly efficient. This scribe has decided to discontinue calling QB Rex Grossman wreck after his solid performance. If he gets on a roll like he did in the previous two weeks, no amount of gadget plays will help the Vikes this time. Another time that I hope I’m wrong.
Pick-Chicago

Bengals (2-0) @ Steelers (1-1)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh-1 CBS
Favorite-Steelers by 3
The battered Bengals have no luck, they get Pittsburgh on the docket when they are the most vulnerable injury wise and the Steelers are a handful for the Bengals when they are fully healthy. The Bengals need to stop the run and put pressure on the Steelers QB who ever that might be. If the Bengals stop the run, they can beat the Steelers. That still is a big if. Marvin Lewis isn’t to go to the corny motivational ploys, but you have to think that playing Bill Cowher’s mocking Who Dey, We Dey chant done after last years playoff game will spur the Bengals
Pick-Cincinnati

Packers (0-2) at Lions (0-2)
Ford Field, Detroit- 1 (Fox)
Favorite-Lions by 6
The Pack played better against the Saints, but still lost. Brett Favre should be able to find a cure for his teams woes this week as they take on the joke that is the Detroit football. Mike Martz carping for the head coaches spot will begin in earnest after this week.
Pick-Green Bay

Jaguars (2-0) at Colts (2-0)
RCA Dome, Indianapolis 1 (CBS)
Favorite-Colts by 9
Two very contrasting styles clash in Indy, the Jags fresh off a defensive trench war with the Steelers and the Colts who seem to have their offense humming at midseason form. Though Byron Leftwich gets props for standing tall against a withering Steelers defense, he’ll be hard pressed to keep the points a-coming.
Pick-Indy

Jets (1-1) at Bills (1-1)
Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard Park , NY- 1(CBS)
Favorite-Bills by 6
C’mon you thought like everyone else did that this would be a battle of 0-2 teams going nowhere. The Jets aren’t a pushover and the Bills play a head-bussin’ scrappy defense. This will be a tightly played game with one or two plays deciding. The Bills playing at home will give them a slight edge
Pick-Buffalo

Titans (0-2) at Dolphins (0-2)
Dolphins Stadium, Miami 1 ET CBS
Favorite-Dolphins by 10.5
Once singing tunes of a home Super Bowl, the Fins are in full panic mode as Daunte Culpepper looks more and more lost. He should find his way against a Titans team that has no identity. They aren’t a particularly tough team, and they don’t have the tools to be a finesse team. The Fins find their way today, but they are a long way from singing that Super Bowl tune.
Pick-Miami

Redskins (0-2) at Texans (0-2)
Reliant Stadium, Houston 1 ET (Fox)
Favorite-Redskins by 3.5
The week’s only interconference matchup is a real snoozer. The Skins finish a Texas two step and hope they don’t stumble again. The Texans gave the Colts a decent run, and have some potential. If Clinton Portis is still a no-go, this game may get interesting. The Texans are starting to get that old Bungles look about them
Pick-Washington

Ravens (2-0) at Browns (0-2)
Browns Stadium, Cleveland 4:05 ET (CBS)
Favorite-Ravens by 6
The Ravens defense is scary, 2000 season-like scary. They have yet to let a team in their end zone, protecting that space with the ferocity of a junkyard dog. The Browns are the like a Chihuahua , a lot of yapping, but will run and hide at the first loud noise.
Pick-Baltimore (Lock of The Week)

Giants (1-1) at Seahawks (2-0)
Seahawks Stadium, Seattle 4:15 ET (Fox)
Favorite-Seahawks by 3.5
A rematch of a thrilling 2005 overtime game, both teams are playing solid and feature hard charging running games and QB’s who can get things done. Eli Manning is suddenly looking like his own man instead of Archie’s youngest or Peyton’s kid brother. Matt Hasslebeck has went from a QB with potential to a top flight QB. This game will be fun to watch.
Pick-Seattle

Eagles (1-1) at 49ers (1-1)
Monster Park, San Francisco- 4:15 ET (Fox)
Favorite-Eagles by 6
The Niners are feeling good after beating the Rams, too bad their next opponent is a lot better quality-wise and in a foul mood after blowing a big lead and losing their home opener. The Eagles are not the type of team that young Alex Smith needs to face. This could get real ugly.
Pick-Philly

Rams (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1)
Cardinals Stadium; Glendale, AZ-4:15 ET (Fox)
Favorite-Arizona 4.5
The Rams are reeling after their surprise loss to the Niners while the Cards are coming off a spanking from division power Seattle . The Cards have the tools and the talent, its putting it all together that’s the tough part. The Rams have trouble on the road; and the Cards have just enough to make this a bad roadie.
Pick-Arizona

Broncos (1-1) at Patriots (2-0)
Gillette Stadium; Foxboro , MA 8:15 (NBC)
Favorite- Patriots by 6.5
Denver is searching for its offense and the Pats are searching for cohesiveness. Both make for an interesting subplot. The Pats struggled with supposed weak teams in their first two games, the grade gets considerably steeper as they take on defending divisional champs this and next week. The Broncos have fond memories of their last Sunday night game on NBC as they won Super Bowl 32 in NBC’s last NFL broadcast in 1998, and their return trip to Sunday Night will be less than memorable.
Pick-New England

Falcons (2-0) at Saints (2-0)
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans 8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite-Falcons
No one expected this to the showdown for early control of the NFC South. The Saints finally get a real home game, playing their first game in New Orleans since wk 16 of the 2004 season when they beat...the Falcons. A repeat task will not at all be easy. The Saints have yet to face a strong running game like the Falcons feature and that will be a problem. The game will be tight, as the Saints will ride their emotional home crowd, but the Falcons have enough to overcome it.
Pick-Atlanta

Dallas (1-1), Oakland (0-2) San Diego (2-0) and Kansas City (0-2) have a bye

Last Week 12-4
Overall 20-12

Week 2 Picks

8-8….well I might as well get the bad week out of the way first. C’mon no saw the Bucs tanking as bad as they did and no one expected the Broncos to play as underwhelming as they did. Ahhh enough with the excuses, I just plain missed too many of them. Week 2 has less tossups, there are 9 games this week with a 7 point or better spread and three of those are double digit…yikes

Panthers (0-1) @ Vikings (1-0)
HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis-1 (Fox)
Favorite- Carolina by 3
Coming off a fine nationally televised performance, The Vikes host a Panthers team coming off a poor performance against the Falcons. The variable here is Steve Smith, if healthy he will torment the Vikes secondary. If not, the Vikes can go hard at Jake Delhomme since DeShaun Foster has not shown signs of being a the gamebreaker he has been projected to be, it could pose problems in a perennially loud Metrodome
Pick-Minnesota

Bills (0-1) @ Dolphins (0-1)
Dolphin Stadium, Miami-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Miami by 7
The education of JP Losman continues, as he faces another hard charging veteran defense in the Dolphins. South Florida in September is not the best place to have to run for your life constantly Daunte Culpepper will find that the Bills defense while challenging won’t pose as many problems as the Steelers did
Pick-Miami

Giants (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)
Lincoln Financial Field-1 (Fox)
Favorite-Philly by 3
The education of Eli Manning continues, though the younger Manning’s learning has been a lot better he should find that the Eagles defense to be as challenging as the Colts defense. This seems like a snarky upset pick but in reality the teams are a lot closer than one would think this is really a tossup. The Eagles have lost their last three at home, I can’t see it going to four.
Pick-Philly

Saints (1-0) @ Packers (0-1)
Lambeau Field Green Bay, WI-1 (Fox)
Favorite-New Orleans by 1
Last year the Pack were on the plus side of scoring for a deal of the season due to a 52-3 beatdown of the Saints. The Pack will be lucky to get 52 points total by Mid-October at this rate. The Saints while nowhere near a juggernaut, have enough offense to wear the Pack down and enough defense to make the Pack pay for last years thrashing. This might get ugly.
Pick-New Orleans

Texans (0-1) @ Colts (1-0)
RCA Dome, Indianapolis-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Indy by 14
Peyton gets his favorite whipping boy to blister in their home opener. The Texans while showing some improvement are nowhere close to staying with the Colts. David Carr will be running for his life (again) as the boisterous and rowdy Colt faithful will make it hard to think inside the RCA Dome. The Colts have yet to lose to the Texans and its hard to see that trend coming to an end anytime soon.
Pick- Indy (Lock of the Week)

Lions @ Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago-1 (Fox)
Favorite-Chicago by 8
The Bears are looking fearsome, their defense that is. Their offense is still working the kinks out. The Lions showed some heart against the Seahawks but that is not even close to being enough to keep up. The Bears will simply do like they did against the Pack last week, wait for Jon Kitna to force things and cash in.
Pick-Chicago
Browns @ Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Cincy by 10
Fresh off a solid win at a tough venue the Bengals deal with their interdivision upstate nemesis. The Bengals are already pinning their collective ears back to rush young Charlie Frye. The Browns o-line is nowhere near as good as the Chiefs patchwork line and that could be a problem dealing with a hard charging Rudi Johnson who has had 100+ yards in each of his last three games against the Browns
Pick-Cincy
Bucs @ Falcons
Georgia Dome, Atlanta-1 (Fox)
Favorite-Atlanta by 7
The Bucs are licking their wounds after getting their lunch handed to them last week. The Falcons rugged defense is not the squad you want to see. Worse still is the very real possibility of Michael Vick returning to his high-speed elusive form. Chucky is in deep trouble, 0-2 overall and in the division is a real possibility and in no joke NFC South that could be deadly.
Pick-Atlanta
Raiders @ Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore- 1 (CBS)
Favorite-Baltimore by 8
Do you think the Ravens are drooling? The Ravens dominated a decent Bucs team. They may do the same against a pathetic Raiders squad who are fast becoming the definition of clueless. Combine a short week for the Raiders and a cross-country trip to a tough venue in Baltimore and you have the makings of a train wreck. Art Shell is beginning to realize why so many coaching candidates turned this job down.
Pick-Baltimore
Cards @ Seahawks
Qwest Field, Seattle-4:05 (Fox)
Favorite-Seattle by 7
The resurgent Kurt Warner has the Cards flying high after a shootout win over the Niners, they’ll get no such quarter in Seattle . The ‘Hawks hardcore defense will make points harder to come by and the Cards will have a harder time slowing down Shawn Alexander
Pick-Seattle
Rams @ 49ers
Monster Park, San Francisco-4:05 (Fox)
Favorite-St. Louis by 3
Remember when this used to be a marquee matchup? The Niners scare no one and the Rams puny offense only scares themselves. The Rams might ruefully rememeber the shocking 28-25 loss the Niners handed them last year. Alex Smith is showing some improvement to keep the game interesting but not that interesting.
Pick-St. Louis
Patriots @ Jets
Giants Stadium; East Rutherford , NJ-4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-New England by 5.5
The Jets are feelin froggy after rallying to beat the Titans, but they are catching the Pats at a bad time. Annoyed that they struggled with the Bills last week, they are looking to take it out on the next opponent. The Jets are on the docket and Gang Green really should be worried. A resurgent Chad Pennington will find the sledding a lot tougher against a still capable Pats D.
Pick-New England
Titans @ Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego-4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-San Diego by 10.5
The Chargers looked crisp and efficient in their destruction of the Raiders. The Titans gave it good try against the Jets, but couldn’t seal the deal. If Vince Young gets some playing time, he’ll spend a good deal of it running from Shawne Merriman. Philip Rivers gets the benefit of not having to do too much other than making sure LaDainian Tomlinson gets the ball cleanly on handoffs
Pick-San Diego
Chiefs @ Broncos
Invesco Field @ Mile High, Denver-4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-Denver by 7
The Broncos laid a big fat egg against a beatable Rams squad, and while there is nothing wrong with their defense, their offense leaves much to be desired. The same can be said of the Chiefs who were one dimensional prior to Trent Green’s concussion from a frightening head bounce against Cincy and are even more so now. The Broncs rarely lose home openers often, haven’t lost to the Chiefs at home since 2000 and won’t this time.
Pick-Denver
Redskins @ Cowboys
Texas Stadium; Irving, TX-8:15 (NBC)
Favorite-Dallas by 5.5
I think it should be a law that on that these two teams meetings should be nationally televised. My hatred of the Tuna tempts me to pick the Skins, but the Pokes play good at night and they will take a page from the Vikings playbook and try to pound the ball late if its close. The Skins don’t have the wherewithal to stand up to a closely pitched trench war. Joe Gibbs deserves a better fate, but I think the Pokes don’t want to go into their bye 0-2.
Pick-Dallas
Monday September 18th
Steelers @ Jags
Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville-8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite-Jags by 3
I read on the Jags website that the heat wilted the Cowboys last week and that the elements might do the same for the Steelers…uh I doubt that. But it will be a close game, where is Tommy Maddox when the Jags need him? The Steelers get an added boost if the Robocop-like Big Ben can go. But Charlie Batch can do a great stand-in job if he can’t.
Pick-Pittsburgh
Last Week and Overall 8-8

Week 1 Picks

The picks to start out the NFL season were corrupted, I'll make a copy of them to repost

Starting Back...

Due to a glitch my sports blog has not been updating, its been fixed so now you can read my takes on all the sports and stuff.