Week 4 Picks

I had yet another solid week, though Baltimore had me sweating and the Cards did me no favors. I offer an apology to the Saints whom I didn’t think would feed off their crowd in their return to the Superdome. I didn’t mind them getting the win thought. While we get to pick on the Raiders again, there are more intriguing games this week. The unbeaten ranks are down to 7 teams while there are still 6 teams trying to get off of winless island, one of which should do so this week. Also for your consumption are fast facts on each game that I find out when researching the matchups for the week. This further proves that unlike Terry Bradshaw I do my research myself and do not have a flunky feeding it in my ear. Pittsburgh , Denver , NY Giants and Tampa Bay have a bye this week

Sunday October 1
Cowboys (1-1) @ Titans (0-3) LP Field, Nashville-1 (Fox)
Favorite-Cowboys by 9.5
It’s a Fact: First Meeting of these teams since Christmas Night 2000, where the Titans destroyed the Pokes 31-0 Will TO be a go? The Cowboys really don’t need him and are likely to rest him in anticipation of the Eagles matchup in Philly next week. Even with all the alleged suicide talk, the rested Pokes won’t be distracted enough to stumble here. The Titans are a mess and the Vince Young watch will continue in earnest as Kerry Collins gets to feel what a punching bag feels like…again.
Pick-Dallas

Dolphins (1-2) at Texans (0-3)
Reliant Stadium, Houston 1 (CBS)
Favorite-Dolphins by 4 It’s a Fact: The Dolphins make their first trip to Houston to play the Texans; the last time they played in Houston was in 1996, when they played the Oilers. The Dolphins slugged out an ugly win over the Titans and the Texans are already looking to see who they can pass over drafting in 2007 (Adrian Peterson anyone?) The Texans leaky defense should be a continued tonic for the Dolphins anemic offense and the Texans offense only scare the folks in Houston .
Pick-Miami

Cardinals (1-2) at Falcons (2-1)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta , 1 (Fox)
Favorite-Falcons by 7.5 I
t’s a Fact: At 46, Morten Andersen is the oldest player to play in the NFL since George Blanda was kicking for the Raiders at 48 in 1975. Both of these teams come off of weak performances. The Cards are kicking themselves for letting the Rams off the hook last week. The Falcons were with unwitting victim of Superdome magic on Monday. The Falcons overall speed should be enough to push past a Cardinals team still searching for its defensive identity Pick-Atlanta
Colts (3-0) at Jets (2-1) Giants Stadium; East Rutherford , NJ 1 (CBS) Favorite-Colts by 9.5 It’s a Fact: This is the Colts first trip to the Meadowlands to play the Jets since they took a 41-0 beatdown from them in the 2002 AFC wild card round. A first glance the matchup seems intriguing, the Colts are off to their usual strong start, but the Jets are a fraud at 2-1, beating the sorry Titans and the so-so Bills while getting making that Pats game look competitive with a late rush. That game was 24-0 a one point. The Colts if given a lead like that they won’t let it slip. Pick-Indy

Vikings (2-1) at Bills (1-2)
Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard Park, NY-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Bills by 1
It’s a Fact: All three of the Vikings games have been decided by 3 points and all have been final scores in the teens. The Vikes want to bounce back after a tough loss to Chicago , the Bills are way too inconsistent. Both teams are a lot alike, have decent defenses and a credible running game. Though Brad Johnson was winning games in the NFL before JP Losman was out of high school may make a marked difference in experience. I don’t buy into the Vikes outside will have problems I’ve been to Buffalo and its not Siberia …at least not on the 1st of October
Pick-Minnesota

Chargers (2-0) at Ravens (3-0)
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Chargers by 2.5
It’s a Fact: This is the first time in the Ravens history that they have started 3-0 This intriguing conference game pits two of the league’s best defenses. LaDainian Tomlinson needs to get rolling early to keep Ray Lewis and company from pinning their collective ears back and coming full bore at young Philip Rivers. On the other side of the ball Steve McNair has the Ravens offense looking more potent than they have in years. The Ravens D will cause the young Rivers more problems than the talented Chargers D will cause the veteran McNair.
Pick-Baltimore

49ers (1-2) at Chiefs (0-2)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City-1 (CBS)
Favorite-Chiefs by 7
It’s a Fact: The Niners have lost nine of their last 10 vs. AFC opponents The Chiefs come off their bye needing a win, and the 49ers are just the team that they needed to show up. The Niners are improved over recent times, and Alex Smith is maturing, but that won’t cut it. Larry Johnson is due for a breakout game and the soft San Fran D will be accommodating.
Pick-Kansas City

Saints (3-0) at Panthers (1-2)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte-1 (Fox)
Favorite-Panthers by 8.5
It’s a fact: Sean Payton is the first Saints head coach to begin his stint in New Orleans 3-0 The Saints have been the NFL’s feel good story of the young season. Too bad the good feelings will begin to evaporate as the Saints enter a brutal stretch that includes games against Philly, Pittsburgh , Baltimore and Cincinnati . A trip to a better than the record shows Carolina starts the rugged road the Saints must travel. The Saints are decent enough to keep the game close, but Carolina will not let this one get away.
Pick-Carolina

Lions (0-3) at Rams (2-1)
Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis- 4:05 (Fox)
Favorite- Rams 5.5
It’s a Fact: Though these two teams have played each other 79 times, this is the Lions first trip to St. Louis to play the Rams. The Lions have been playing much better, but have nothing to show for it. The Rams 2-1 record is misleading, as they shouldn’t have the wins over the Broncos and Cards. I’m probably going to kick myself for picking this way, but I think that Mike Martz is going to gameplan for the Lions offense all of the Rams weaknesses and take advantage of them. If the Lions offense plays similar to the way they did against the Pack last week, they could steal this one.
Pick-Detroit

Jags (2-1) @ Redskins (2-1)
Fed Ex Field; Landover, MD- 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-Jaguars by 3
It’s a fact: The Redskins win over the Texans was its first in its last 10 vs. AFC teams Mark Brunell found passer refuge against a pitiful Texan defense; he’ll find the sledding much tougher against a rough and ready Jag defense that only has trouble with a guy named Manning. Clinton Portis is the key if he and Ladell Betts get rolling the pressure will lessen on Brunell. I’m just not sold on the Skins offense. And while the Jags offense isn’t pretty, I think it can and will give the Skins suspect D some problems
Pick-Jacksonville

Browns (0-3) @ Raiders (0-2)
McAfee Coliseum, Oakland - 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-Browns by 3
It’s a Fact: The Raiders 55-6 point deficit in their two games is the greatest since they were outscored 99-0 in 1961. That smell emanating from the East Bay is the scent of two rotten teams. The Browns though have some promise as Charlie Frye is light years better than any signal caller for the Raiders. The Browns defense can and will capitalize on the eventual Raider mistakes and make it another long day in Raider nation
Pick-Cleveland

Patriots (2-1) at Bengals (3-0)
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincy-4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-Bengals by 6
It’s a Fact: Pats RB Corey Dillon is the Bengals career rushing leader and the holder of the Pats single season rushing mark. The Bengals of old might letdown after the big win at archrival Pittsburgh , but Marvin Lewis has this squad seriously focused despite the ill-timed antics of Odell Thurman. The Pats are searching for their offense after a pedestrian Sunday night showing against the Broncos, and can ill afford to get into a shootout. The Pats do not have the production capabilities to match the Bengals high-powered offense.
Pick-Cincy

Seahawks (3-0) at Bears (3-0)
Soldier Field, Chicago -8:15 (NBC)
Favorite-Bears by 2.5
It’s a Fact: This is the first meeting of these teams in Chicago since 1999 The defending NFC champs found their offense but the status of Shaun Alexander is a big mystery. If he can go, he’ll make things easier dealing with the rock-solid Bears who can and will cash in on any mistake a team makes. The Seahawks cant count on Matt Hasselbeck to have an insane passing day every week. I’m making this pick under the assumption that Alexander plays.
Pick-Seattle

Monday, October 2
Packers (1-2) at Eagles (2-1)
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia-8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite-Eagles 10.5
It’s a Fact: Both these teams played on Monday night three times last year, and both went 0-3 Both teams come in off impressive road wins, but you have to think that the residue of the Eagles meltdown at the hands of the Giants two weeks ago still lingers. The Pack might have been able to get away with so-so play against a equally sorry team like the Lions but the Eagles bone-crusher defense is a different bird, so to speak
Pick-Philadelphia (lock of the week)

Last Week 10-4
Overall 30-16