NFL Week 11 Picks

Mama said there would be days (or in this case) weeks like that. Anything that would go wrong, would any upset that I thought would happen didn't the upsets I didn't dream of hit me upside the head. The result was a disastorous 6-10 week that pulls me even further closer to .500. Your humble scribe will attempt to get the ship right this week.



NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 11
Sunday, November 19

Falcons (5-4) @ Ravens (7-2)
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore-1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Ravens by 4
Just The Facts- This is the Falcons first trip to Baltimore to play the Ravens, the Falcons have not played in Baltimore since losing to the Colts 13-6 in 1969,
The Ravens have suddenly become one of the elite teams in the AFC, while the Falcons have dropped two very winnable games. The Falcons have gotten away from the formula that won them five of their first seven. Letting Michael Vick be creative, the Ravens disciplined defense will make that sort of creativity very hard. The Ravens have a worakble enough offense to give the Falcons increasingly suspect secondary a hard way to go. If the Falcons had trouble containing Kellen "The Soldier" Winslow last week, they'll have a whale of a time containing Todd Heap
Pick-Baltimore

Bills (3-6) @ Texans (3-6)
Reliant Stadium, Houston-1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Texans by 2
Its A Fact- The Texans have a two game winning streak.
You read the line right, the Texans are favored in this game and with good reason. Their young defense is quietly shedding its pushover status. With Bills RB Willis McGahee out with bum ribs, the load falls on Anthony Thomas and more importantly JP Losman who is fast running out of chances to prove that he can be the QB answer. Look for the Texans to do something that they aren't used to doing: being the bully.
Pick-Houston

Chicago (8-1) @ NY Jets (5-4)
The Meadowlands; East Rutherford, NJ-1:00 (FOX)
Favorite -Bears by 6.5
Its A Fact- The Bears lead the series 5-3
The Bears continue their stay in New York facing a spry Jets team that shocked the Patriots in Foxboro. The Bears looked to be going soft after their stunning upset loss to the Dolphins two weeks ago but shrugged it off by thumping the G-Men. The Bears can pick on the Jets weak run defense and as long as Rex Grossman isn't needed to be heroic the Bears will have their way.
Pick-Chicago

Bengals (4-5) @ Saints (6-3)
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans -1:00 CBS
Favorite-Saints by 1.5
Its A Fact- The Series is ties at 5 wins apiece, this is the Bengals first visit to New Orleans since 1993 when they lost 20-13.
The Bengals are reeling after imploding against the Chargers last week, if the Bengals can control the clock by utilizing Rudi Johnson more. They might be able to steal the game. Drew Brees has flourished in the Big Easy and if Reggie Bush is allowed to wreak havoc, look out. In a game too close to call. I'll go against my better judgement and give the nod to the team who is more desperate.
Pick-Cincinnati

Vikings (4-5) @ Dolphins (3-6)
Dolphins Stadium, Miami1:00 FOX
Favorite
Its A Fact- The Vikinigs have a six game losing streak to AFC teams
What was supposed to be the Culpepper Bowl is now a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL. The Dolphins are sporting a two game winning streak and have found an offense to compliment their fine defense. Who knows what Vikings squad will show up. I hope I'm wrong here, but the Vikings have given me no reason to believe that they are capable offensively and the Dolphins don't need to score much to win.
Pick-Miami


Patriots (6-3) @ Packers (4-5)
Lambeau Field, Green Bay-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Patriots by 6
Its A Fact- This is the Patriots third trip to Wisconsin, having lost both meetings to the Pack, once in Milwaukee and once in Green Bay.
The Packers are dreaming of playoff contention after their win over the Vikings gave them three wins in their last four. The Pats are plenty sore after their upset loss to the Jets. The Pack should get no ideas about an upset. The Pats have more than enough to outgun the Pack. Fans of the game should sit back and enjoy this shootout between the NFL's best gunslingers in Brady and Favre.
Pick-New England

Raiders (2-7) @ Chiefs (5-4)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Chiefs by 9.5
Its A Fact- The Chiefs have won six in a row vs the Raiders.
The Raiders are going back into their shell after a pair of puny offensive showings. The Chiefs are the NFL"s most puzzling team. Just when you think that they are rolling they trip over themselves. The Raiders will be a welcome tonic. The last thing a team that is 0-4 on the road needs is to go into a place like Arrowhead.
Pick-Kansas City (Lock of the Week)

Steelers (3-6) @ Browns (3-6)
Browns Stadium, Cleveland-1:00 CBS
Favorite-Steelers by 3.5
Its A Fact- The Browns actually lead this series 55-52
Both teams are coming off impressive victories, but the Steelers are showing much more offensive firepower and against a notoriously weak Browns secondary. Big Ben should have a good day. The Browns need to force turnovers to have a chance. I can't see that happening.
Pick-Pittsburgh

Rams (4-5) @ Panthers (5-4)
Bank Of America Stadium, Charlotte-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Panthers by 6
Its A Fact- The Panthers have won these teams only two meetings since the 2002 realignment
The Rams are on a shocking slide, having lost four in row after starting 4-1. Losing behemoth T Orlando Pace for the season, hurts immensely and facing a stingy Panthers defense is not what the doctor ordered. The Panthers are trying to stay in the playoff hunt and the Rams will only be a speed bump.
Pick-Carolina

Titans (2-7) @ Eagles (5-4)
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 1:00 CBS
Favorite-Eagles by 12.5
Its A Fact- The Titans have won the previous two meetings, their first wins against the Eagles alltime.
The Eagles have shook their midseason fog off and are still very much in the playoff race. A winnable home game is on the docket. Can Vince Young and company roll in Philly and spring an upset? Don't get it twisted.
Pick-Philadelphia

Redskins (3-6) @ Buccaneers (2-7)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa-1:00 FOX
Favorite-Buccaneers by 2.5
Its A Fact- The Redskins have lost in five of their six trips to Tampa, but the one win was a 17-10 playoff win.
The Skins are a mess and Jason Campbell is finally getting to take the reins. The Bucs may have a sad sack offense but their defense is still tough as nails and a first time starter is fresh meat.
Pick-Tampa Bay

Lions (2-7) @ Cardinals (1-8)
University of Phoenix Stadium; Chandler, AZ-4:05 FOX
Favorite-Cardinals by 2
Its A Fact- The Lions have won the last three matchups.
Its the snoozer bowl! The two most pathetic teams in the NFL meet for the right to not be named the team that officially sucks. Both teams have burned me when I pick them. Flip a coin and take the home team.
Pick-Arizona

Seahawks (6-3) @ 49ers (4-5)
Monster Park, San Francisco-4:05 FOX
Favorite-No Line
Its A Fact- The Seahaws have won the last six meetings
The Seahawks are asserting their control of the NFC West and while the Niners are showing improvement over last year. They are nowhere near able to keep up with Seahawks with or without Alexander and Hasselbeck.
Pick-Seattle

Colts (9-0) @ Cowboys (5-4)
Texas Stadium; Irving, TX-4:15 CBS
Favorite-Colts by 1
Its A Fact- One of three Super Bowl rematches this week, (Dolphins-Vikings, Packers-Patriots)
Everyone and their brother is talking an upset here that Tuna and the Pokes will have something for the Colts. I am not one of those that think that way. Though the Pokes can and will exploit the Colts soft run defense. Sooner or later Peyton Manning gets his crack at the Pokes woeful defense. Who are you going to take in a shootout Manning or Tony Romo??? I thought so.
Pick-Indianapolis

Chargers (7-2) @ Broncos (7-2)
Invesco Field @ Mile High, Denver-8:15 NBC
Favorite Broncos by 3
Its A Fact- The Broncos have won the last six meetings in Denver
The Chargers came from light years back to beat the Bengals. But should they fall behind by 21 in Denver, forget it. The Broncos won't score 41, they won't need to. As long as Jake Plummer knows his role and lets the Broncos punishing D do the talking. The Broncos carry the day, LT and Philip Rivers would like to get into a shootout like they had last week or the Broncos had in a loss vs the Colts three weeks ago. I'm seeing the D coming on in prime time
Pick-Denver

Monday, November 20

NY Giants (6-3) @ Jaguars (5-4)
Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville-8:30 ESPN
Favorite- Jaguars by 3.5
Its A Fact-This is the Giants second ever trip to Jacksonville, losing 40-13 in 1997
With the Giants missing Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress not looking llike he can carry the load, the pressure falls on RB Tiki Barber who despite his league leading rushing total will still put pressure on the Giants young middle linebacking corp. The G-men have a bad tendency to start slow. If the Jags get rolling in front of a pumped home crowd, things can and will go downhill in a hurry. The Jags aren't flashy but they can get the job done.
Pick-Jacksonville

Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 84-60