Week 12 Picks

First of all, wishing you and yours a happy Thanksgiving. Make sure you give thanks for what you have, even if its a little bit of something. If you are alive to appreciate it, thats a good thing.

The Thanksgiving menu gets a bigger as there are now three games to enjoy. Detroit hosts the early game and Dallas gets the afternoon game like usual, Kansas City gets the night game. The Chiefs have been the turkey day opponent quite often and Chiefs Founder/Owner Lamar Hunt has long lobbied the NFL to host a game on Thanksgiving and now with the NFL Network plucking a few games to keep for its own broadcast, Hunts wishes can be aceded to. NFL network is gambling that Joe FootbalFan will carp long and loud about NFL network not being on most regular cable systems like Time Warner which your humble scribe has, but most cable systems refuse to pay the exoribanant price that NFL Network is charging for the right to broadcast its network. Me personally, I hate sattelite TV and refuse to get it. If that means I miss a few games, so be it. I had a much better week at 11-5, no thanks to the Texans who I've dropped to teams I despise (designated teams will only get picked as winners only grudgingly and I will find every reason to pick against them) The Broncos and Seahawks dropped games that should have been very winnable. Trying to improve on my numbers, my picks are submitted here for your review. The lines are for comparison purposes only and the Thanksgiving lines are courtesy of Yahoo.

Thursday, November 23
Dolphins (4-6) @ Lions (2-8)
Ford Field, Detroit 12:30 (CBS)
Favorite- Dolphins by 2.5
Its A Fact-The Lions have played at home on Thanksgiving every year since 1945
The Dolphins have suddenly pushed themselves back on the fringes of the playoff hunt. They face a Lions squad who has came apart (but then again when have they really come together???) The crazy thing is that the Lions for some reason play way over their heads on Turkey day. I just have that feeling that Joey Harrington has a nightmare return to the motor city. I'm probably going to hate myself for this pick
Pick-Detroit

Buccaneers (2-8) @ Cowboys (6-4)
Texas Stadium; Irving, TX-4:15 (FOX)
Favorite- Cowboys by 11
Just The Facts This is the Buccaneers first time playing on Thanksgiving, while the Cowboys have played on Thanksgiving continually since 1966 (missing only 1975 & 1977)
The Pokes are looking to make a late charge at the playoffs and given the wide open nature of the NFC anything is possible. The Bucs did what the Pokes couldn't, beat the Redskins. But the Pokes are playing better as of late and though every time I give Tuna a vote of confidence they tank. Here's hoping that doesn't happen.
Pick-Dallas

Broncos (7-3) @ Chiefs (6-4)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City-8:00 (NFL Network)
Favorite-Pick 'em
Its A Fact-The Chiefs are the first AFC team to host a Thanksgiving Day game.
The Broncos should be ashamed of themselves after blowing a double digit lead at home. The Chiefs look like they are back in stride again after a return to action by Trent Green. This is a super crucial game in the rugged AFC West and both need the win to keep up with the Chargers. Only because they are at home do the Chiefs get the nod.
Pick-Kansas City

Sunday, November 26

Cardinals (2-8) @ Vikings (4-6)
HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis-1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Vikings by 6
Its A Fact Cards coach Denny Green is 2nd all time in Vikings coaching wins
The reeling Vikes were thinking playoffs three weeks ago and were facing a winnable stretch of games, but their puny offense has made that dream just that. The Cards are just happy to get off the long losing slide that they were on. The Cards find ways to lose, but then again so do the Vikes. Give the edge to the home squad...barely
Pick-Minnesota

Panthers (6-4) @ Redskins (3-7)
FedEx Field; Landover, MD- 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Panthers by 4
Its A Fact
Jason Campbell cant catch a break, he gets his QB baptism against a tough Buccaneers defense and now he faces a defense in Carolina fresh off a shutout over a good offensive team in the Rams. It'll be a long day in the Fed.
Pick-Carolina

Bengals (5-5) @ Browns (3-7)
Browns Stadium, Cleveland-1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Bengals by 3
Its A Fact-The all time series between these teams is tied at 33 wins apiece
The Bengals got a badly needed win in New Orleans and are still very much in the playoff hunt. This has all the making of a classic trap game, with a showdown against the division leading Ravens on the 30th, the Bengals may get caught looking past a dangerous Browns squad. I'm betting that the offense has woke from its season long slumber for good and should put plenty of points up.
Pick-Cincinnati

Texans (2-8) @ NY Jets (5-5)
The Meadowlands; East Rutherford, NJ-1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Jets by 5.5
Its A Fact The Jets have won both meetings between these teams.
The Jets offense after looking anemic against the Bears gets a chance to pick on the Texans young defense. The Texans are improving but going into Gotham and winning is still too tall an order.
Pick-New York Jets

Jaguars (6-4) @ Bills (4-6)
Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard Park, NY -1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Jags by 3
Its A Fact-The Jags became the fastest expansion team to win a playoff game by beating the Bills 30-27 in the 1996 playoffs.
The Jags are hanging around the fringes of the AFC playoff picture. Their tendency to fall asleep at the switch against winnable opponents come into play with against a Bills team that is the definition of inconsistent. I'm thinking the Jags will play down to the level of their opponent again, but win a tight one.
Pick-Jacksonville

Saints (6-4) @ Falcons (5-5)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Falcons by 3
Its A Fact-After a 5-1 start the Saints have lost three of their last four.
The suddenly reeling Saints have been giving up way too many points, and the Falcons have been losing too many winnable games. Michael Vick has not been playing very well as of late and even with being at home I think that Saints may have the formula to stop him.\
Pick-New Orleans

Steelers (4-6) @ Ravens (8-2)
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore-1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Ravens by 3
Its A Fact
The Steelers are still yapping that they can make a playoff move. The Ravens are a win or two away from having a choke hold on the AFC North. The Ravens could wrap the division up with a win here and one in Cincinnati a week from Thursday. Knocking the Steelers out of division title contention would be extra incentive. Even without Ray Lewis the defense is still more than tough enough.
Pick-Baltimore

49ers (5-5) @ Rams (4-6)
Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis-1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Rams by 5.5
Its A Fact
I thought it cute that Mike Nolan emulated his dad's natty sideline look. The Niners have been playing inspired as of late and are a surprise contender in the NFC West. On the other hand, the Rams are fading fast and have lost five straight. This game is a tight one to call, I keep thinking that the Rams will break out of their funk and I'm having a hard time believing that the Niners will continue to play over their heads like they have been. I'm gonna take a chance and say that the trends will continue at least for another week.
Pick-San Francisco

Raiders (2-8) @ Chargers (8-2)
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego-4:05 (CBS)
Favorite-Chargers by 13
Its A Fact-The Raiders have the NFL's worst record since 2002
The Chargers have a high scoring offense and an defense that gives that offense plenty of chances to score. The Raiders while having a credible defense have no offense and against the Chargers who will light up a scoreboard that is a bad recipe. Also, the Raiders have shown no abilty to win outside of Oakland. Since the Chargers are unbeaten in San Diego, I see no reason that will change.
Pick-San Diego

Chicago (9-1) @ New England (7-3)
Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA-4:15 (FOX)
Favorite -Patriots by 3
Its A Fact Chicago beat New England in Super Bowl XX 46-10
Arguably the best matchup of the week, the Bears are getting their swagger back after a two week layover in the Jersey swamps, the Pats continue to teeter on the edge of falling back to the AFC East pack, but the redoubtable Tom Brady makes it look easy. I'll be interested to see how he deal with the hard charging Bears D. In a game that is too close to call, I don't think the Bears are ready, winning in Jersey ain't winning in Foxboro, thats a step up I dont think the Bears are ready to make.
Pick-New England

NY Giants (6-4) @ Titans (3-7)
LP Field, Nashville-4:15 (FOX)
Favorite-Giants by 3.5
Its A Fact-This is the Giants first trip to Nashville
The Giants are in first place in the NFC in spite of themselves. They looked abysmal against the Jags, and will have their hands full with an inproving Titans squad. If the G-Men can run the ball, they should have their way but then again who knows which Eli Manning will show up from week to week. I'm gambling that the one who manages to stay out of his teams way shows up.
Pick-New York Giants

Philadelphia (5-5) @ Indianapolis (9-1)
RCA Dome, Indianpolis-8:15 (NBC)
Favorite Colts by 9.5
Its A Fact-Peyton Manning has wins over every NFL team
NBC is kicking itself that they snatched this game instead of the more attractive Bears-Pats game. Pity poor Eagles fan, they lose Donovan McNabb to a devastating knee injury as he's having one of his best seasons and they face an angry Colts team knocked from the unbeaten ranks and without the unbeaten burden, the Colts suddenly look real tough.
Pick-Indianapolis


Monday, November 27

Packers (4-6) @ Seahawks (6-4)
Qwest Field, Seattle 8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite-Seahawks by 9.5
Its A Fact
The Pack are in a bad habit of catching teams at the absolute wrong time. They got the Pats after they dropped a stunner to the Jets, they get the Seahawks after they got upended in San Francisco. If Matt Hasselbeck comes back that makes it one more thing that could go wrong for the Pack. Since they had such a hard time with the Pats veteran defense what problems do the Seahawks rugged defense pose? Many.
Pick-Seattle

Last Week 11-5
Overall 95-65