The 100th Post...Let The Speculation Begin!

With this being the off week before the Super Bowl. Now is as good a time as any to start speculating on who I think will make the NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament.
As the NCAA tournament draws closer the speculation on who will be selected as the 65 teams to play for the NCAA Mens division I basketball championship. Realistically only about a dozen of the teams that get selected have a chance to win the 6 games needed to become national champions but all want the chance to get in. Last year a small commuter school in Fairfax, Virginia rode a magical carpet ride all the way to the national semifinals. So let the speculations begin. For the third year I will analyze the prospects for teams qualifying for the tournament. I have broken down the possibilities by conference. The teams that I list are the ones in serious contention or ones to consider so there are more than 65 teams in contention. I also will list key games and/or teams to watch. As the regular season winds down and the conference tournaments heat up, teams will appear and some will drop off. The sheet will be updated as needed for the early part of the month then be updated almost daily until Selection Sunday March 11.

These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Work to do- Florida State, Maryland, BC, Va. Tech, Ga Tech
Skinny- UNC is quietly biding its time till the first of two showdowns with its hated rival. Clemson barring a big time collapse should be okay. The Noles win over Florida is getting further away, while the Hokies are getting closer to Solid status with signature wins at Duke and a thumping of UNC. The Terps, Jackets and Eagles need to keep winning to make their resumes better. With B.C's win over the Noles making them more solid


Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette,
Work to do- Notre Dame, Depaul, West Virginia, Louisville, G-Town, Villanova
Notre Dame now has work to do, after dropping a bewildering loss to a sad-sack St. John’s squad and getting hammered by Villanova. Those wins over Maryland and Bama are the only thing that keeps them afloat. Louisville has entered the conversation with a nice run of their own but need to keep winning to stay. UConn is on the outside looking in and the ‘Cuse is close to being finished before the discussion really gets serious

Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Work To Do-Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue Michigan
I doubt that the Big 10 plus one will send seven. The Badgers and Bucks are safe but the Hoosiers win over UConn doesn’t look as nice as it once would have. The Illini righted their free fall with a gutty home win over Indiana. The mess that consist of the Wolverines, Spartans and Boilers will sort itself out.

Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Work To Do-Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Texas is getting close despite the 3OT loss in Stillwater and struggling at home vs. Baylor, Tech will be in the mix and are closer to solid status. K-State keeps winning ugly but ugly wins are better than pretty losses.

Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois
Work To Do, Wichita State Creighton, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
If you read my spec sheet last year you know my love for the MVC runs deep. Bradley and Southern Illinois made the big boy apologists cry last year by getting berths in the tourney and proving they deserved them by knocking off big boy teams. Once again the MVC is fast proving that they deserve multiple berths but now face the problem of hurting each other by making road trips most dangerous. As it stands The Salukis are the most solid, but the Blue Jays and Panthers are lurking and could easily join the aforementioned in the tourney rather than take a berth from them. The Shockers dropped out of the solid block and are in trouble with an 3-8 stretch, the committee doesn’t need an excuse to keep the smaller teams out. Stay tuned.

Mountain West
Solid-Air Force
Work To Do-UNLV, Brigham Young
The Falcons are the class of this conference and are pretty safe but don’t discount the prospect of this conference getting two bids with a resurgent UNLV, The Runnin’ Rebels are a handful and will be a tough out. The Cougars are hangin' around but still have much to prove.

Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Cal Washington
Six bids from the West coast? Believe it! The Pac-10 is a no joke league this year and have five solid teams already. Southern Cal has proven that they belong in the solid category with big wins and respectable losses that cover the bad loss against South Carolina. Keep your eye on a good young Stanford Cardinal team who have wins at Virginia and have already beaten both Washington teams. Arizona is going to have to prove that they are deserving of anything higher than a 5 or 6 as their signature wins get further and further in the past, but they are still solidly in.

Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do-Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Bama and the Vols sit in the solid category. The Gators are a mortal lock to defend their title. UK have an insane RPI and schedule strength to back them up despite bad losses to Vandy and at Georgia . The Hogs, Tigers and Bulldogs need to keep winning and Vandy is the dark horse charging into the discussion with an impressive win in Rupp. Bama is in danger of falling from the solid category as they keep getting clocked on the road and trips to LSU, Florida and Tennessee are still on the Tide's docket. Watch out.

Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
As long as Nick Fazekas comes back in relatively good shape the Wolfpack stay solid. Meanwhile, Reggie Theus has a sleeper in the Aggies and with the WAC tourney in Las Cruces they will have to be dealt with soon.

Top Conferences that should only send one team

Atlantic Ten
Solid-None
Work To Do-Xavier, Geo. Wash, Rhode Island
No one has stood out in this conference and are looking more and more like a one-bidder. The Muskies, Colonials and Rams are the top three teams, but none have stood out.

Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
The Tigers are on cruise control and get a mention cause they are nationally ranked, no one else in the field is worth a mention yet, but stay tuned.

Horizon
Solid-Butler
The Bulldogs have a top 15 ranking, only a free fall keeps them out.

West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Remember when the Bulldogs (I refuse to call them the ‘Zags) used to be a stone lock for the tourney? They are still very solid, but they have way too many bad losses to make them locks right now

There are others in the mix to be sure. Teams like Drexel and Old Dominion, Appalachain State, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra are going to be high on the list for getting invites. And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC

Since this is an early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibilty of upsets. But those never happen, right?

The next spec sheet will come at the end of this week after the super bowl preview...