First Spec of February

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/1
The heat turns up and the jostling for bids continues. Some have their bids on lock, some still have work to do When I refer to a teams “numbers” I refer to factors that the NCAA look at RPI ranking and Strength of Schedule. The lower the number is the better a team’s prospects are. Wins and close losses to good teams help beating up on or losses weak teams hurt. Road wins are always a plus in consideration. But keep in mind there is still a long way to go before the conference tourneys. Playing well at this time of the year means you have a little more wiggle room come tourney time where upsets abound Play well here and you can get away with losing on a 40 foot desperation shot or if a teams big man gets hurt. I’ve also included players to watch whose play

These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, Duke, Clemson Va. Tech
Work to do- Florida State, Maryland, BC
Look who just barged into the high rent district! The Hokies have been playing solid and the committee will notice wins over Duke and UNC. Clemson stays even with the clock shenanigans at Duke giving them a bad Chapel Hill-Durham two piece. BC has no more gimmes after this Hartford game with UNC and Duke still to come calling to Chestnut Hill.
Player To Watch-Zabian Dowdell Sr/G-Virgnia Tech With all the talk focused on Tyler Hansbrough at UNC, its easy to overlook the ballhawking Dowdell who isn’t afraid to take the Hokies on his back with a big shot.

Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette
Work to do- West Virginia, G-Town, Villanova, Notre Dame, Providence
Notre Dame righted itself sort of with a track meet like win in Syracuse but they still have to offset some bad losses. G-Town is mowing down everyone that’s being put in front of them and The Ville is doing the same. The Mountaineers have to prove they can win on the road and make hay against beatable opponent before the curve gets way steeper. The Friars have decent numbers there are danger games left for them yet. Stay Tuned
Player to Watch-Aaron Gray Sr./C-Pitt Simply put Gray is a beast, averaging a double-double (14.2 ppg/ 10.2 rpg)

Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Work To Do-Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan
Michigan State was solidifying itself before an abysmal game at Illinois Tuesday. I’m not sold on Michigan and Purdue yet both could get to 20 and get locked out despite good numbers. The Hoosiers can move into solid status with a win over Wisconsin and quiet their usual late season critics (me included)
Player to Watch:Alando Tucker Sr./G-Wisconsin Talk about Greg Oden all you want, Tucker is the reason why the Badgers are ranked #2 right now

Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Work To Do-Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Texas is 5-1 in league but their numbers are awful, Tech’s doing itself no favors by getting woodshedded by the likes of Mizzou. Why does that beatdown of USC by K-State suddenly look so golden?
Player To Watch:Kevin Durant- Fr/F Texas-24.4 points a game…’nuf said


Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois
Work To Do- Wichita State Creighton, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
Creighton missed a golden opportunity to solidify their resume by dropping a heartbreaker against Southern Illinois, a team that is going. Bradley has the best numbers of the second tier but lacks a signature win. Both Northern Iowa and Mo State are in this class as well but the Bears have the easier schedule and can pile up the wins.
Player To Watch-Nate Funk Sr/G- Creighton. His last name bespeaks his game.

Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, UNLV
Work To Do-Brigham Young
The Falcons now have company, UNLV are rolling and have earned their way into solid status for now. BYU now sits in a precarious position and look who’s coming to town: the aforementioned Runnin’ Rebs. A win here would be a nice complement to their upset of Air Force and puts them right in the mix.
Players to Watch:Wink Adams So/G UNLV- Blink and you might miss this quicksilver guard the drives the Rebs

Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Cal Washington
Other folks are still hemming and hawing on SC but I have them solid. Stanford is an interesting case. This team could be a headache for anyone and they could make noise with matchups with both SoCal teams and Gonzaga on the docket. Cal is danger after a disastrous two piece by the visiting SoCal schools. Washington is teetering also but the wins over the Oregon schools keep them here…for now.
Players to watch:Brook and Robin Lopez Fr C/F, Stanford-The most underrated freshmen in the country. The Lopez twins are making big strides and will make the Cardinal hard to handle.

Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do-Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt
UK quieted a lot of critics with a badly needed win against Tennessee, albeit without Chris Lofton. I’m leaving “Bama in for now, but more bad losses would not bode well. Georgia is becoming harder to ignore as is Vanderbilt, both have upcoming games to prove themselves. LSU hangs on to that win at Texas A&M but they keep piling up bad losses.
Player to Watch-Chris Lofton JR/G-Tennessee As this silky shooter goes so do the Vols

Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
The Wolfpack and Aggies will fight to the death for control of this conference. One of the best that you probably know little about. The Aggies host the WAC tourney and will be a handful.
Players to watch: Justin Hawkins, Jr/F New Mexico St.-Averaging better than 16 points. Nick Fazekas SR/F Nevada-Notched 54th Double-Double


1 Bid major conferences

Atlantic Ten
Solid-None
Work To Do-Xavier, Geo. Wash, Rhode Island, UMassUMass has pushed itself into contention but as it stands there are a lot of so-so teams here and with as many bustling conferences out there, so-so gets you only the automatic bid

Conference USA
Solid-Memphis The Tigers are on cruise control…still .

Horizon
Solid-Butler The Bulldogs have a top 15 ranking, only a free fall keeps them out.

West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Bulldogs still okay for now, their solid non-conference schedule makes them hard to ignore as long as they don’t screw up in conference.

Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of grey area.

And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Since this is an early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?