Spec Sheet 2/13

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/13

One Month and counting till Selection Sunday! Let the chase for to be one of the chose 65 begin in earnest.
A wild and wooly weekend saw a hosts of upsets and thrilling games, and not just from the big boy conferences. There were some interesting non conference games as well. The so-called mid-majors could have another big year as the power conference are middling at best. The Pac-10 could send six teams and the Big 12 could send five, but conferences like the Big 10 will be lucky to send four and outside of North Carolina the ACC has no real bona fide locks. The SEC is a mess beyond Florida and maybe UK. So that leaves the bane of Billy Packer, the alleged mid-majors to snatch up at large spots. It is well documented of my beef with the so-called experts like Billy Packer and bleating media wonks like Skip Bayless and JT The Brick who hate the mid-majors and whine that they do not play worthy power conference teams. Teams like Texas, Duke, Pitt and Ohio State know better than to play a rugged so-called mid major like a Creighton, Old Dominion or Butler. They won’t go to them, cause they have no incentive and bringing a team like that in is high-risk of taking an L at home. Wonks like Packer then whine on Selection Sunday when these alleged mid-majors get bids over their pet teams. Recall if you will last year when teams like Bradley, Butler and George Mason proved that they were worthy of their bids and sent power teams home earlier than would have been thought. I’ll get off my soapbox for now…

Key players are listed as usual and I have also added key games as well that have become crucial to teams postseason hopes.

These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, BC, Virginia, Va. Tech
Work to do- Maryland, Clemson, Duke, Virginia, Florida St.Ok, Maryland is now in the picture to stay with their shocking rout of Duke. The Blue Devils stunning slide has gotten them demoted to the second tier line. They could move back up with a win at BC…good luck. Virginia wasted the goodwill they earned with their win over Duke by getting blasted in Blacksburg. Florida State has dropped back with their poor play that even their rock solid numbers (19 RPI, 14 SOS) can't hide anymore.
Player To Watch-Branden Wright So/F-North Carolina In shadow of Tyler Hansbrough but a viable alternate scorer for the Heels
Key Game: Duke at Boston College 2/14 7:30- The Eagles get to prove their shocking rout of the Blue Devils in Durham was no fluke

Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Work To Do- Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville, Villanova
I was reviewing numbers and noticed that ‘Nova has rock solid numbers (16-7, SOS 5, RPI 17) but they have no headliner wins and their 4-5 Big East mark is mediocre at very best. G-Town and West Virginia move up. The Mountaineers do in spite of an ugly home loss vs Pitt but bounced back with a shocking win over 2nd ranked UCLA that got them a whole lotta notice. The Hoyas have earned their move with solid, consistent play. Notre Dame is teetering on the brink of dropping off with bad play and numbers (RPI 51, SOS 125) that are criminal
Player to Watch:Frank Young Sr/F West Virginia Rugged vet leader keeps the Mountaineers on course for a NCAA bid.
Key Game: Seton Hall at UConn 2/14- Only the top 12 teams go to New York for the Big East tourney, if the Huskies want to stay above the drowning line they had better win this one.
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan
As soon as I give Michigan State dap, they go into the tank, Michigan is doing the same and are close to getting the boot (I don’t care if State has 17 wins) Iowa is in 4th in the Big 10+1 but has no big wins, except for Indiana. The Illini are another team too good to ignore, but not good enough to make solid. They wasted a big opportunity to move up by losing to Indiana
Player to Watch: Adam Haluska Sr./G-Iowa Averaging an eye-popping 20.8 ppg and Hawkeyes are riding his dead-eye shooting.
Key Game: Michigan at Michigan St. 2/13 9:00- Could this be a an at-large knockout game for the loser?

Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Texas
Work To Do-, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Kansas State has made its case despite getting shellacked at Allen Fieldhouse. They switch places with Oklahoma State who has taken a dangerous slide but righted themselves with a badly needed win over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are out with their ill-timed losing streak. The Sooners are on the working list for now, to move up they but need to keep winning; games against A&M, Texas and Kansas on the docket present an excellent opportunity to do so.
Player to Watch: Mario Boggan SR/F-C Oklahoma State-The Pokes stretch drive will go as this high scoring big man goes
Key Game: Texas Tech at Texas A&M 2/13 7:00- The Aggies last loss was to Tech in Lubbock by 2. That was the Red Raiders last win, incidentally. You think this might mean something?

Horizon
Solid-Butler
Work To Do-Wright State
The Raiders took a thrilling game before a packed house at the Nutter Center in Dayton Saturday and have barged into the tourney picture. They may still have to win the Horizon tourney outright to get their bid, but you can bet that the other conferences are sweating now. Butler will not get locked out and will take an at-large if need be. This would only be a multiple bid conference if Wright gets the auto bid.
Player to Watch: DeShaun Wood SR/G-Wright State- Dropped 30 on Butler to spark Raiders and make them contenders for the Horizon title.
Key Game: Southern Illinois at Butler 2/17 4:00-Both teams are ranked and safe, and have little to gain or lose in this matchup, but it’ll be a hoot to watch these two top mid-majors square off in a game where the fans are the winner.

Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
SIU won a see-saw contest at home in Carbondale over Creighton but the Bluejays are still very much in the picture. Creighton has to bounce back against a good Northern Iowa team. Mo. State has the best shot of the workers, and can make their case better with a win in Bracket Busters against Winthrop. Northern Iowa took a pair of bad losses at a time they can ill afford them and with a trip to Omaha to face the aforementioned Creighton, the road gets no easier. The Shockers keep hangin’ round but they are getting close to the win it to get in it stage and are running out of time in the regular season.
Player To Watch:Blake Ahern Sr/G-Missouri State. If the Bears are going anywhere, Ahern’s shooting will get them there.
Key Games: Southern Illinois at Missouri St 2/13 8:05 and Northern Iowa at Creighton 2/13- 9:05 SIU and Creighton get no rest after their clash for control of the MVC both have to deal with pursing teams with NCAA dreams of their own.

Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV, San Diego State
Air Force’s loss to San Diego State looks less puzzling now, as the Aztecs are making a late charge into the tourney picture. Air Force and BYU are still very safe but the UNLV-San Diego State tilt is looking like a possible at-large knockout match.
Player to Watch: Brandon Heath, Sr/G San Diego State- Big play scorer has sparked Aztecs late dash into contention
Key Game: UNLV at San Diego St 2/13 11:00 The Aztecs have charged into the MWC title chase and a win over the Rebels helps their cause immensely

Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Washington
Arizona picked itself off the canvas with a badly needed win over Oregon. UCLA got ambushed in Mountaineer country but have no worries. Washington comes back into the picture with a bay area team sweep, an interesting roadie to Pitt follows a toughie versus Wash. St. If the Huskies can get one or both, they will have to be considered more seriously
Player to watch: Nick Young, Jr/G-F USC-High Flying tweener is the engine the drives the Trojans stretch run.
Key Games: USC at Arizona 2/15 and UCLA at Arizona 2/17- If Wildcats want to quash talk of being on the NCAA bubble a split would do fine and a sweep would do it completely

Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt
Bama is closing in on 20 wins but can’t shake the rest of the SEC West pack. UK should be pretty safe despite its heartbreaking loss to Florida. Georgia got a needed win, but need to keep winning before facing UK and Tennessee back to back. Could the SEC send 5 from the east and one from the west?
Player to Watch- Derrick Byars Jr/G-F-Vanderbilt He has been doing it all for the Commodores and may get them a NCAA bid.
Key Game: Alabama at Florida 2/14 Can anyone stop the streaking Gators? The Tide get their shot, but face the Gators at the very hostile O'Connell Center

Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
New Mexico State might just be finished. Their losses to Utah State and Fresno State could not have come at a worse time. The Wolfpack is pulling away and the road gets no easier for the fading Aggies with a trip to Hawai’i and a visit from MAC dark horse Ohio on Bracket Buster weekend.
Players to watch: Ramon Sessions Jr./G-Nevada Giving the WAC-leading Wolfpack yet another scoring option.
Key Game: New Mexico State at Hawai’i 2/13 12:05a-Aggies need to salvage fading NCAA hopes

West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Work to Do-Santa Clara
What looked like a stone cold lock a couple weeks ago has suddenly turned to mush for the Bulldogs. Suspension of Josh Heytvelt bodes ill with hard chargin’ Santa Clara comin’ to town. And a date with Memphis in the Spokane Arena, may not be the type of opponent the reeling Bulldogs need right now. Santa Clara may make this a one bid conference if Gonzaga falls hard.
Player to Watch: Derek Raivio Jr/G-Gonzaga- With Heytvelt out, the load falls even more on the Bulldogs leading scorer.
Key Game: Santa Clara at Gonzaga 2/13 12:00a-Plain and simple, this is a showdown for control of the WCC

1 Bid major conferences

Atlantic Ten
Solid- Xavier
Work To Do- Rhode Island Geo. Wash, Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier has suddenly surged to the top of the A-10. They have moved to solid, but its tenous at best. The others in the working pack still could have some moves to make.

Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
The beat(ings) go on in C-USA as Memphis is running the show


Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth, Vermont and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of the grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC; remember, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets and cinderella tourney runs. But those never happen, right?

Next Update: Feb 16th