Spec Sheet 2/16

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/16

The shuffling continues and the status lines will change next update. You will now see three lines. Locks: Teams that have all but assured themselves an NCAA berth and are playing for better seeding or a favorable locale. Good Shape: Teams that are just that and just need to keep winning or not a go on a prolonged losing streak or take ill-timed loss. Need Help: Teams in this designation either need to go on a hot streak or worse yet win everything including their conference tournament to get a berth. But those will start next week. Key Games only are listed in this update

The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, BC, Virginia, Va. Tech
Work to do- Maryland, Clemson, Duke, Virginia, Florida St.Duke stopped their slide with a badly needed win at BC. They still have work to do though. Coach K might ride his rep into a bid, but the Dukies still have wins over G-Town. Gonzaga, Indiana, and Air Force to bank a bid against. Maryland is creeping closer with solid road wins. Florida State’s loss at G-Tech has damaged their tourney hopes…possibly irreparably
Key Game: UNC at Boston College 2/17 9:00- The Eagles get little time to lick their wounds after getting beat by Duke, an angry UNC team comes a-calling

Atlantic Ten
Solid- Xavier
Work To Do- Rhode Island, UMass
The A-10 has moved to the multiple bid conference side of the ledger, but beyond Xavier, I’m not sold on anyone else in this conference. The Muskies can’t coast, though they only travel outside Ohio once more in the regular season, they have that tendency to wander and I’m expecting that to happen once more before the season is done. The Colonials are all but finished after getting blasted at home.
Key Game: Charlotte at Rhode Island 2/17-2:00 Rams need to keep winning to stay ahead of hard charging Muskies who are a ½ game back.

Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Work To Do- Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse
I’ve never been a big fan of Louisville and less a fan of Rick Pitino but the Cards have to get some dap after their shocking rout of Pitt in the Oakland Zoo. That moves them to the front of the Worker line. I’m treating Notre Dame like I used to treat Indiana in years past, they need to prove that they are worthy. The same mantra goes for Syracuse, who returns to the list. 18 wins for the Orange don’t fully cover up some bad losses
Key Game: Notre Dame at Cincy 2/18 2:00- A danger game for the Irish, the Cats are struggling but are always tough at the ‘Shoe.

Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan is off the list completely losing an ugly one in East Lansing. I’m not convinced that a 14-11 Iowa team is in. Only three bids from the Big 10 + 1? Right now that’s all that they deserve
Key Game: Iowa at Michigan St. 2/17 2:30- another knockout game for the Spartans, can the Hawkeyes prove they still belong in tourney talk?

Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Texas
Work To Do-, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Nebraska is playing spoiler, they put Tech on life support last week and have made K-State sweat. Oh, I haven’t forgotten those that doubted me when I said Texas was safe? Then Longhorns thrashing of the Pokes should quash all talk of the Longhorns being a bubble team. The Pokes are what would be a good shape team, but they have to bounce back and they have a favorable schedule to do so. Texas Tech might have saved their season with their last second win in College Station but still have mass work to do though
Key Game: Texas A&M at Oklahoma 2/17 3:30- The Sooners were on a serious roll till they stumbled against Iowa State, they could turn a lot of heads if they upset the Aggies

Horizon
Solid-Butler
Work To Do-Wright State
Butler bounced back but their win over a no-name non D-1 team counts for zip. Wright State avoided the classic letdown by thumping Cleveland State, it’ll be interesting to see how they handle Cal-State Fullerton on Bracket Buster Saturday
Key Game: Southern Illinois at Butler 2/17 4:00-Both teams are ranked and safe, and have little to gain or lose besides seeding in this matchup, but it’ll be a hoot to watch these two top mid-majors square off in a game where the fans are the winner.

Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Missouri State
Creighton handled their business against UNI and for all intents and purposes are safe. Mo. State is hangin’ around but the time is growing short, the bracket buster game vs. Winthrop is a needed win. Bradley escaped Evansville and stay on the list. UNI has lost four straight and are off the list
Key Game: Winthrop at Missouri State 2/16 -7:05- First Bracketbuster game of the weekend is a needed one for both. Mo. State can improve their resume with win over Big South leading Eagles

Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV, San Diego State
UNLV may be in some trouble, their loss to red hot San Diego State puts them just a half game ahead of the surging Aztecs. Could the MWC send more teams than the Big 10 +1? I can already hear the carping by Billy Packer now.
Key Game: San Diego St at Wyoming 2/17 3:00 The Aztecs need to win the winnable ones. A trip to high-altitude Wyoming will be a test.

Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, USC
Work To Do-Stanford, Washington
The Huskies are running out of time and opportunities to make a tourney case, after losing to Wazzu. A roadie to Pitt might be their last chance to strengthen their tourney resume before the Pac-10 tourney
Key Game: Washington at Pitt 2/17 Huskies need a marquee win, but the Panthers are smarting after a stunning rout by the ‘Ville. The Oakland Zoo will be rockin’

Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
Tennessee proved to a lot of people what I’ve been saying for a while. They are safe. The team to watch suddenly is Ole Miss. Andy Kennedy has the Rebs coming on strong, and they have suddenly emerged on top of the SEC West they still have work to do, but deserve some dap.
Key Game: Ole Miss at Arkansas 2/17- 5:30 Rebs need to win to stay king of the hill in the SEC West

West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga,
Work to Do-Santa Clara
Santa Clara went to the Kennel and cleaned it out. The Broncos are now in control of the WCC and as long as they keep winning they improve their shot . Gonzaga has a solid enough resume (wins over UNC, Texas and Washington) despite so-so numbers (RPI 66 SOS 86) but if they can stop the white-hot Memphis Tigers this weekend they could still be in line for an at-large bid no matter what happens in the WCC tourney
Key Game: Memphis vs Gonzaga at Spokane Arena 2/17 12:00a-Not a Bracket Buster game, but a win that both teams could use as statement wins.

1 Bid major conferences

Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
Tigers are safe and sound, but beating Gonzaga in hostile Spokane would quiet those that knock Memphis’ conference competition

Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico StThe late fall by New Mexico State pushes this conference to 1 bid major. Nevada is going, while the Aggies need to win out. 20 wins or no, they have atrocious numbers (81 RPI, 259 SOS) and too many bad losses.

Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth, Vermont and Hofstra.
Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of the grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?

Next Update: Feb 20th