Spec Sheet 2/20

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/20

20 is an important number today for a lot of reasons. First there are 20 days till selection Sunday, also 20 seems to be a demarcation line for teams that dream of a tourney bid and are not bona fide locks. Today, the 20th of Feburary is Fat Tuesday this year, which is the end of the line for Mardi Gras but means the beginning of a real scramble for slots in the tourney. As promised the team designations change to Lock, Good Shape and Needs help. If the team is in the top 15 only a losing streak to and through a conference tourney with major blowout losses, will ruin a bid. Good Shape means while the team is not a spot on lock, they only need to stay the course to earn a bid. Those in the need help category are those that need to get and stay on a win streak or get an eye-catching win.

The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Bost. College, Duke
Good Shape-Va. Tech,Virginia
Needs Help- Maryland, Clemson, Florida St.At this point, only North Carolina and BC are solid locks. I’m not truly sold on Duke but you don’t think that the powers that be will keep the Dukies out now, will they? Va. Tech now knows what it feels to be the hunted and became the latest NC State victim. I’m not ready to give the Cavs a lock but they are looking very good. Clemson’s 17-0 start is a distant memory and their schedule gets no easier. The Tigers may need to win out and 20 wins here may not even be enough. Florida State are for all intents and purposes, finished.
Key Game: Clemson at Duke 2/22 9:00- If the Tigers even want to start thinking about the NCAA tourney they must win in Cameron…good luck

Atlantic Ten
Good Shape Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
UMass still is very much in the picture after a tough road win at Dayton. The Muskies keep doing what they have to do to win, but the showdown with Rhode Island looms. Still, nothing will be very clear until the A-10 tourney.
Key Game: Rhode Island at Xavier 2/21-7:00 A huge showdown in the A-10 Muskies and Rams are grappling for best position in the A-10 with the winner avoiding a dangerous UMass until the A-10 tourney final.

Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Good Shape- Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs Help-Syracuse, Providence, Villanova
All the teams in Lock status helped their cause with solid wins, except for Marquette whose sudden losing streak is starting to hurt. I still have the Mountaineers in, though their numbers (47 RPI 115 SOS are weak) they have solid wins over UCLA and NC State to offset a bad OT loss to Cincy. Notre Dame hit the magical 20 win mark and barring a 1st round Big East Tourney flameout should be okay though their numbers (47 RPI 125 SOS) still are a big concern. Louisville is making a strong case for itself and are close to 20 themselves. Syracuse, Providence and ‘Nova are all in that dangerous grey area.
Key Game: DePaul at Notre Dame 2/20 7:00- If DePaul wants to force its way into tourney conversation a win over the Irish to complete a regular season sweep would be a good start.

Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Good Shape-Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, PurdueIndiana is getting that February swoon going again, with yet another bad loss. (Maybe it wasn’t just Mike Davis) Right now only Wisconsin and Ohio State are for sure. Illinois has done little to impress me, but they like Michigan and Michigan State are getting close to 20 wins but have all sorts of awful marks on their tourney resume’. Iowa??? Are they really still in the conversation after getting hammered in East Lansing? They aren’t but Purdue is, they have a doable schedule and if they can run the table they may steal a bid.
Key Game: Wisconsin at Michigan St. 2/20 7:00- If Spartans can knock off hi-flying Badgers they’ll look a lot more tourney worthy

Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M,
Good Shape- Kansas State, Texas
Needs Help- Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Kansas was having no part of the Nebraska spoiler party. Their frightening 53 point blitz of the Huskers served notice of that. A&M won ugly and has no real worries. K-State and Texas need only to keep winning to get to Lock status. Don't read too much into the Wildcats loss to Kansas on Monday, they are still in good shape for a tourney run. Oklahoma State went from In to Out in a matter of days and the bad loss to Missouri at home hurts. Tech is still afloat, a win over the Longhorns would look really good. Oklahoma is all but finished and given that they still have Texas, Kansas and Kansas State still on their docket, they have a rough road ahead.
Key Game: Texas Tech at Texas 2/20 9:00- Red Raiders need to keep winning to get off crowded bubble. A win in Austin would turn some heads.

Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State, Loyola
I caught a thrilling game between Butler and SIU Saturday and despite the loss, Butler is still the definition of safe. Wright State may need to run the table to get a bid. Keep your eye on Loyola coming on with a late 6 game win streak. The Ramblers could be the wild-card in all of this.
Key Game: Loyola at Butler 2/22 9:00-Bulldogs need to shake late season slide and Ramblers could use a signature win as springboard to Horizon tourney

Missouri Valley
Locks- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Needs Help- Bradley, Missouri State
SIU and Creighton are going, period. Bradley is looking real good after win over VCU and their numbers (18/9 overall/league 29 RPI 18 SOS) are getting too good to ignore Mo. State blew a chance to improve itself with a loss to Winthrop and may have to win out to the MVC finals now to stay out of bubble talk.
Key Game: Northern Iowa at Bradley 2/20 -8:00- UNI has fallen off the Spec Sheet but that makes them no less dangerous to a Bradley team that need to keep winning

Mountain West
Locks-Air Force, Brigham YoungGood Shape-UNLV
Needs Help-San Diego State
San Diego State hurt itself with a bad loss to lowly Wyoming, while the Runnin’ Rebels won a crucial game in Utah. Air Force and Brigham Young are killing time till an inevitable showdown in the MWC tourney.
Key Game: Air Force at UNLV 2/20 10:00 Rebs could make their tourney case stronger by beating MWC ranked squad.

Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St
Good Shape- Arizona, USC
Needs Help-Stanford, Washington
SC picked a bad time for an ugly loss. Losing to sad sack Arizona State not only is a momentum killer, but also feeds talk that the Trojans aren’t tourney worthy. I don’t believe that myself, but they’ll need to bounce back quick. Oregon is fading fast, but I still have them locked in…for now. But if they keep their middling ways up they might have to beg. Arizona is good shape, but they need to keep winning. I’m suspicious of trusting a young Stanford team any further than a game by game basis. Washington needs to get deep into the Pac-10 tourney now
Key Game: Washington St at Oregon 2/22- 9:00 Ducks have been looking weak lately, a win over the Cougars keeps any bubble talk away.

Southeastern
Lock-Florida,
Good Shape-Alabama, Tennessee, UK, Vanderbilt
Needs Help-Georgia, Ole Miss
UK is trying its best to give away its status as they have gone on a dangerous slide. Vanderbilt is in better shape now, have multiple huge wins and thrashing the streaking Lock status Gators is just the kind resume win the committee can’t ignore. Barring an epic collapse they are in very good shape. Bama is still looking good. Tennessee needs a couple more wins to get to lock status though their numbers are solid . Ole Miss fell hard and I can’t take Georgia seriously as a tourney team
Key Games: LSU at Kentucky 2/20 7:00- UK needs to stop the bleeding and shake bubble talk in the bluegrass, a win over a struggling LSU would do.
Alabama at Tennessee 2/21- 8:00 This game is more for a bid in the big dance than the SEC. Both could use this game as signature win.

West Coast
Good Shape-Gonzaga, Santa Clara
Gonzaga lost a heartbreaker to Memphis in OT, and a chance to shake bubble talk. They may need to get deep in the WCC tourney, if not win it outright now to get a dance ticket
Key Game: Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount 2/24 10:30-Broncos try to keep WCC lead and face last team to hand them a loss.

1 Bid major conferences

Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers won a huge non-conference game in a hostile environment and might have locked a #2 seed up in the process.

Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico St
Nevada has nothing to worry about. New Mexico State is still breathing, albeit barely. Their win against Ohio keeps them looking to the WAC tourney at home in Las Cruces. If they get to the final and lose a close one to Nevada…who knows?

Teams also in consideration:
Drexel-Road warrior Dragons have won at Syracuse and Villanova
Old Dominion-Win against Toledo improved their overall profile
Appalachian State They have beaten Virginia and Vanderbilt, a team that no one wants to face.
Virginia Commonwealth 22 wins might offset mediocre numbers (RPI 57 SOS 127)
Hofstra-Showdown with VCU looms
Winthrop-Unbeaten in Big South and beating Mo. State helps but oooh those numbers (72 RPI 269 SOS) are painful

And remember the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?

Next Update: Feb 23rd