Spec Sheet 2/23

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/23

I love this time of the year, the teams that you think are cruising get blindsided and the teams that you leave for dead rise from their supposed ashes and blast a favored team. The intensity of the games are ratcheting up a few notches and teams that are desperate for a win are plentiful. Christmas is supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year, but for the basketball enthusiast like us, this is the closest thing to Christmas before December.

The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Duke
Good Shape-Va. Tech, Virginia, Bost. College, Maryland
Needs Help- Florida St.
BC has started that fall apart thing too. Maryland is doing everything it needs to do to get and keep the selection committee’s attention with their timely win streak. Va Tech is getting real close to a lock, their resume is too good to ignore. Virginia lost a very winnable game at Miami, but are still pretty safe for now. Clemson is all but done with their 2-8 slide after a 17-0 start, they’ll need to get to ACC title game to get anymore consideration
Key Game: UNC at Maryland 2/25 5:30- Terrapins could turn heads with a win over ACC leader.

Atlantic Ten
Good Shape Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier is now in the A-10 drivers seat after their sound whipping of Rhode Island. Nothing is locked up, but the Muskies are in full control of their tourney destiny now.
Key Game: Xavier at Dayton 2/24 6:00- Flyers aren’t tourney material but they always give the Muskies a hard time at UD Arena, a place well known for loud crazy fans.

Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Good Shape- Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs Help-Syracuse, Providence, Villanova
Louisville is starting to look more and more like a lock as is Notre Dame. Villanova is still in limbo despite great numbers (RPI 18/SOS 4) Providence may need to win out and Syracuse (RPI 64/SOS 57) has no real marquee wins to offset their so-so numbers. All the teams that are mentioned here have 20 wins except for West Virginia at 19. Could the Big East send eight teams again like last year???
Key Game: Syracuse at Providence 2/24 12:00- Two bubble teams in a possible knockout game both need the win to strengthen their tourney resume.

Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Good Shape-Indiana, Michigan State
Work To Do- Illinois, Michigan, PurdueOkay I will admit it, Michigan State has really opened eyes with its throttling of the Badgers Tuesday, and that makes them a lot safer. Purdue despite its bad loss to Iowa needs to just win these upcoming winnables and they will move to good shape too. Illinois got a needed win while Michigan may have seen their chances evaporate. Indiana keeps solidifying their tourney resume and unlike years past may not need to carp and whine to get an invite. I’ll ignore the squawking that is coming from Iowa City, the Hawkeyes need to get real deep in the Big 10 tourney to get back into the conversation.
Key Game: Wisconsin at Ohio State 2/25 4:00- Both teams are locks, but its #1 vs #2 and could be a Big Ten Championship preview game

Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M,
Good Shape- Kansas State, Texas
Needs Help- Oklahoma State, Missouri
Tech got slaughtered in Austin and that’s the last thing a bubble team like that needs. They and Oklahoma who got blitzed by Mizzou are off the list. The Tigers are now on the list but need to keep winning into the Big 12 tourney to have a serious shot. Oklahoma State has gone from a lock to just about finished, and have slid right out of contention.
Key Game: Oklahoma State at Texas Tech 2/24 12:00-Could be a knockout game, both teams desperately need the win

Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State, Loyola
Wright State now has the #1 seed in the Horizon Tourney in spite of taking a bad loss to Youngstown State, Loyola has to be get notice after its stunning win in Hinkle over the suddenly reeling Bulldogs. I still think Butler is a lock to get in, but the Ramblers and Raiders are fast learning the combination.
Key Game: Detroit at Butler 2/24 2:00-Bulldogs need big win to stave off bubble talk.

Missouri Valley
Lock- Southern Illinois,
Good Shape- Missouri State, Creighton
Needs Help Bradley
This conference is too good for its own good. Valley teams keep beating each other and sullying their cases for outright inclusion in tourney talk. Creighton and Bradley are both picking the absolute wrong time to stumble. The Blue Jays have dropped to GS and Bradley needs now to win and maybe get to the Valley final. Mo. State has an inside track now, with solid numbers and a coveted signature win over Wisconsin they are in good shape.
Key Game: Wichita State at Creighton 2/24 5:05-Last chance Blue Jays get to stop their skid before MVC tourney in St. Louis

Mountain West
Locks-Air Force, Brigham Young
Good Shape-UNLV
Needs Help-San Diego State
The minute you write off SDSU and UNLV, they both bounce back. UNLV has been winning critical games and their beating of Air Force makes them a boatload of trouble for other teams looking for an at-large. Air Force and BYU are still safe, but the Falcons are jeopardizing a good seed with this sudden swoon.
Key Game: BYU at San Diego St 2/24 6:00- Aztecs could get a signature win with a victory over solid Cougar squad.

Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St
Good Shape, Arizona, SC
Needs Help-Stanford, Washington
Arizona has the ugliest resume of any Pac-10 team, they have gotten beatdowns from both LA schools and there’s that massacre that UNC gave them at home. But the Wildcats are still in good shape. SC needs to rebound from the stinging loss to Arizona State. Oregon was getting close to slipping down a level but after beating Washington State are now more than likely safe.
Key Game: Stanford at UCLA 2/24 6:00- If Stanford wants to have any legit shot at a tourney invite, upsetting the Bruins is a must.

Southeastern
Lock-Florida,
Good Shape-Alabama, Tennessee, UK, Vanderbilt
Work to do- Georgia, Ole Miss
UK was staring hard at a spot on the bubble after falling behind a Big-Baby less LSU but rallied nicely. They are not back in lock status, but stay in good shape because of their pristine numbers (8 RPI/ 2). Tennessee’s numbers are beautiful but their inconsistent play keeps them in the good shape category. I still think Bama and Vandy are still in good shape despite their losses as long as it doesn’t turn into a prolonged losing streak
Key Game: Kentucky at Vanderbilt 2/25 2:00 Who’da thunk that the Wildcats would be the bubble team struggling for a big win.

West Coast
Good Shape-Gonzaga, Santa Clara
Simply put, this may be a 1-bid conference. Both teams are good, but not good enough for both to get in.
Key Game: Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount 2/24 10:30-Broncos try to keep WCC lead and face last team to hand them a loss.

1 Bid major conferences

Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers won a huge non-conference game in a hostile environment and might have locked a #2 seed up in the process.

Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico StNevada has nothing to worry about. New Mexico State is still breathing, albeit barely. Their win against Ohio keeps them looking to the WAC tourney at home in Las Cruces. If they get to the final and lose a close one to Nevada…who knows?

And remember the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West , Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?

Next Update: Feb 26th