Spec Sheet 3/10

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 3/10

Friday was an extremely busy day and I apologize for not posting as promised but there was lots of upsets, wild games and just plain great basketball. I’ll post who I think is in now and who is hoping for the best and the final word on how many bids will be handed out. I got 63 of the 65 last year. But for all intents and purposes this is the last best spec on who goes and who bubble will burst. The NIT is now controlled by the NCAA so it's anyones guess at how that will work out, but the teams are all fighting to be one of the chosen 65, and that number has already shrunk to 50 this morning and by days end 11 more auto bids will be handed out, reducing the available spots to 39 and the final five auto bids are won Sunday. Which leaves the 35 at large berths. It may be called madness, but it is so much fun.

The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Duke, Va. Tech, Virginia, Bost. College, Maryland Hopin’ For the Best Georgia Tech, Florida State , NC State
Bids Predicted-7
Duke will sweat all day Sunday, as long as NC State doesn’t do something crazy like win the ACC, the should still be in. They do so undeservedly but I think the selection committee gives Coach K and his team the lifetime achievement pass and gives them a sympathy bid. Maryland should be worried as well, their 1st round loss, may have the selection committee questioning their worthiness. But I think if Duke’s name pops up tomorrow, the Terps should be there. Georgia Tech’s numbers are good enough, but Florida State needed a better performance against North Carolina. If the ACC gets 7 Georgia Tech is the one that gets in, but the ‘Noles are on the outside looking in, but I still say neither gets in.
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament: March 8-11 St. Pete Times Forum, St. Petersburg, Florida

Atlantic Ten
Lock- Xavier
Hopin for the Best-Rhode Island, St. Louis
Bids Predicted-2
Xavier might have cost itself a 5 or 6 seed with its loss to Rhode Island. Two teams get in here. I would be stunned if X gets locked out. Atlantic Ten Confernce Championship: Rhode Island vs George Washington 7p-Boardwalk Hall Atlantic City

Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville
Hopin For the Best- West Virginia Villanova, Syracuse
Bids Predicted-5
Pitt and G-Town are playing for seeding. Notre Dame and Louisville have no worries and Marquette will get a lower seed but will be in. Pundits have Nova in, but if they get in how do you overlook West Virginia??? I can’t see them one in and one out. If you see Nova in, the Mountaineers had better be. But I don’t think either deserve it.
Big East Conference Championship: Pitt vs Georgetown
8p-Madison Square Garden New York City

Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Good Shape Illinois, Purdue
Hopin For The Best- Michigan, Michigan State
Bids Predicted-5
Of The five in the second line. I’m conflicted. I really don’t like any of them, but I know better than to think that the Big Ten will only get three. If Illinois gets to the final, they get in. But MSU is the one team that let me down, they will sweat all day Sunday. Purdue getting bounced in the Big 10 semis, may have doomed them. They would have caught some dap with a win over Big Ten bully OSU. I have five in, though of the GS and Hopin group, they are too close to call.
Big Ten Conference Tournament: March 8-11 United Center, Chicago

Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M , Texas
Good Shape- Kansas State
Hopin for the best- Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Bids Predicted-4
Oh now I get it, Oklahoma State now wants to play ball. Their late dash down the stretch in a pitiful attempt to get late sympathy may work with the media wonks but I’m not buyin’ it. These same media wonks want you to believe that Kansas State is not worthy of a bid, but the way they slammed Tech on Friday made that talk look foolish. Tech is going home for an NIT game, and so are the Pokes unless they take the title outright, but four is all I see here
Big 12 Conference Tournament: Mar 8-11 Ford Center, Oklahoma City

Colonial
In-VCU
Hopin’ And Wishin- Drexel, Old Dominion
Bids Predicted-2
VCU is in and that’s a fact not spec. The one who is hopin’ is Drexel and I want them to go. Billy Packer and his ilk may whine, but this is a team no one wants to face in the tourney. The same holds true for Old Dominion who swept the Dragons. I’ve got one more in addition to VCU
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Champion: Virginia Commonwealth over George Mason 65-59

Conference USA
In-Memphis
Ho-Hum, the Tigers won their invitational…err the C-USA tourney and are in with the first unbeaten C-USA season and tourney championship (Cincy went unbeaten in the 99-00 season but lost in the C-USA quarters)
Conference USA Championship: Memphis 71-59 over Houston

Horizon
In-Wright State
Looking Good-Butler
Bids Predicted-2
The Raiders are waiting to see where they’ll go and Butler just won’t have the auto bid title next to their name, but they are going too.
Horizon Conference Tournament Championship: Wright State 65 Butler 59

Missouri Valley
In- Creighton
Good Shape- Southern Illinois
Hopin’ and Wishin’ Bradley, Missouri State
Bids Predicted-3
Bluejays won the auto bid, and the Salukis are beyond reproach. The in list might not extend to Missouri State who despite a solid resume might get caught on the wrong side. I’ve got three here, but that’s a shaky number.
Missouri Valley Conference Champion: Creighton 67-61 over Southern Illinois

Mountain West
Locks- Brigham Young, UNLV
Hopin and Wishin’- Air Force
Bids Predicted-2
In what looked to be a four bids league two weeks ago, now might only get two bids. Air Force has done a frightening nose dive and their shameful loss to MWC also ran Wyoming might have sent them to the NIT. The Cougars and Rebels are merely playing for seeding. The Rebels are the “road” team on their own court.
Mountain West Conference Championship: BYU vs UNLV
7p Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas

Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St, USC, Arizona
Hopin’ and Wishin’-Stanford, Washington
Bids Predicted-5
The Locks are set and going, Arizona needed to get to the Pac-10 semis, did so and will go. Had Stanford beat SC, they would have gotten to lock status, but their fall from ahead loss, puts them out. The Huskies did too little too late and their lackluster loss to Wazzu puts them on the outside as well.
Pacific Ten Championship: Oregon vs Southern Cal- 6p Staples Center, Los Angeles

Southeastern
Locks-Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Good Shape- UK
Hopin’ And Wishin’ Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Bids Predicted-5
Oh hush Wildcat Nation, you are going and you know it. Those numbers are too damn good to justify keeping you out. I was thinking at first that one of the three in the H&W class will go. But with Ole Miss and Mississipi State both out, The bubble team left is Arkansas and I think they would need to win it to get in.
Southeastern Conference Tournament: March 8-11 Georgia Dome, Atlanta

Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Hopin For the Best New Mexico St, Utah St
Bids Predicted-2
Utah State made the bubble teams sweat more with their stunning upset over Nevada. The Wolfpack are in, but I can guarantee that a team nicknamed the Aggies will win the WAC. (Both teams have that nickname) If New Mexico State wins the auto berth they will have done it despite trying very hard to give it away.
Western Athletic Conference Championship: Utah State vs New Mexico State 9p Pan American Center Las Cruces, New Mexico


West Coast
In-Gonzaga
Hopin and Wishin’-Santa Clara
Bids Predicted-1
Gonzaga has remade itself with a nice WCC tourney run. Santa Clara gave it a go, but I can’t them getting in.
West Coast Conference Tournament Champions:-Gonzaga, 77-68 over Santa Clara


Other teams in the Mix:
Appalachian State-They have solid numbers but are from a small conference and lost to College of Charleston in the SoCon Semis
Akron-Still could get the auto bid outright with a win over Miami-Ohio but have decent enough numbers to get an at-large berth
UMass-Flu bug bit and may sent the Minutemen to the NIT
NC State- Only if they win the ACC title, do they get in
San Diego State- I was championing for the Aztecs until their loss to Colorado State in the MWC quarters 10 losses and a weak profile dooms them.

The following conference tournament winners will also receive an automatic bid (those that have earned a bid are listed with conference in parentheses) : Albany (Amer. East) , Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Weber St. (Big Sky), Winthrop (Big South), Big West , Winthrop (Colonial) Penn (Ivy), MAC, MAAC (Niagara) , MEAC, Mid-Continent (Oral Roberts) ,Central Connecticut (Northeast), Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley), Holy Cross (Patriot) Davidson (Southern) , Southland, Sun Belt (North Texas) , SWAC
The Spec review will be on Monday with a regional preview Wednesday