Spec Sheet 3/2

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 3/2

The madness begins in earnest as the calendar has officially turned to March. Many of the key matchups to look out for this weekend are listed
The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Duke, Va. Tech, Virginia, Bost. College, Maryland
Good Shape-
Needs Help- Florida St.
The Terrapins win over UNC makes them a spot on lock, the Cavs and Hokies have had their collective foot on the gas for a while. The Noles have to win out and go deep in the ACC tourney to get any consideration. Georgia Tech remains on the fringes of the tourney picture with their win over Carolina Thursday, but are in the same boat with Florida State.
Key Game: UNC at Duke- Mar 4th 4p Though not for an ACC regular season title, both teams could use this win as a springboard to and ACC tourney run.
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament: March 8-11 St. Pete Times Forum, St. Petersburg, Florida

Atlantic Ten
Good Shape Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier is getting the job done and barring a bad loss in the A-10 quarters should be getting ready to dance. UMass and URI both need to get to the A-10 final to have any kind of shot. Though I doubt that the A-10 would send two unless the aforementioned beat Xavier in the final.
Atlantic Ten Confernce Tournament: March 7-10-Boardwalk Hall Atlantic City

Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville
Good Shape- Syracuse
Needs Help- Villanova
Notre Dame earned its lock after rallying to beat Marquette. Louisville closed the deal and even though I’m making them a lock I’m not sold yet but I’ll give it to them. I know they are 3rd in the Big East, but. Syracuse is still very much in the picture, their win over Georgetown puts them in much better shape. The same cant be said for Providence who’s loss to the Orange put them is serious trouble. Nova needs to win out and the Mountaineers just don’t have the numbers to keep their lock. They’re still in good shape, but I’ll like them better if they get a win or two in NYC. Providence is done with their tough loss to the ‘Cuse.
Key Game: Syracuse at Villanova 3/3 2p- If Nova wants to make any statement, a win here would help
Big East Conference Tournament: March 7-10-Madison Square Garden New York City

Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Good Shape- Illinois, Michigan State
Work To Do- Michigan, Purdue
Michigan State needs to prove that they can win away from the Breslin Center and their status change is a direct reflection of that. Finally, everyone is saying that Iowa is done, as they’re loss to Penn State has more or less evaporated any at large chances.
Key Game: Michigan State at Wisconsin 3/3 3p- Badgers are hungry to avenge beating they took in East Lansing and Spartans could use a road win to strengthen their resume
Big Ten Conference Tourney: March 8-11 United Center, Chicago

Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M , Texas
Good Shape- Kansas State
Needs Help- Texas Tech
Kansas State stumbled badly in Stillwater but the Pokes are getting no breaks from this scribe. Mario Boggan’s stupid head butt will cost him a game and with Oklahoma State needing every win they can get can ill afford their leading scorer’s absence. Getting back to the Wildcats, their profile isn’t the best and aside from wins over tourney bound Texas and USC, they have no big wins. Tech is still in the picture and will be waiting with baited breath on the 11th. If they don’t win the Big 12 tourney they will be a big bubble team.
Key Game: Texas Tech at Iowa State 3/3 8p- A win for Tech gets them to 20 wins before the Big 12 tourney, which they’ll need a couple there to get considered
Big 12 Conference Tournament: Mar 8-11 Ford Center, Oklahoma City

Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State, Loyola
Butler is waiting for a possible rematch with Wright State, but that’s only team that would not have to win at Hinkle Fieldhouse as the Raiders have the Horizon top seed.
Horizon Conference Tournanment: Feb 27th First Round Campus Sites (First Round) Mar 2-3 Nutter Center, Dayton (Quarterfinals and Semi-Finals) Finals Mar 6th Highest Seed Campus

Missouri Valley
Lock- Southern Illinois,
Good Shape- Missouri State, Creighton
Needs Help Bradley
Only the Salukis are a dead-lock no matters what happens in St. Louis. Mo. State and Creighton needs to only avoid first game upsets and the deeper Bradley gets the better their chances are.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament: Mar 1-4 Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Mountain West
Locks- Brigham Young
Good Shape-UNLV, Air Force, San Diego State
BYU is the only real lock now, they are not losing at home. Vegas and Air Force are in good shape, though the Falcons swan dive is seriously damaging their seeding. I’d feel better about the Aztecs if they made the MWC semis or finals. I still like at least three teams to come out of this conference
Key Game: Air Force at BYU 3/3 7:30p- Falcons need a win to have some kind of momentum going to Vegas. But the Cougars are extremely tough to beat at the Marriott Center.
Mountain West Conference Tournament: Mar 6-10 Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas

Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Good Shape-Arizona
Needs Help-Stanford, Washington
As soon as I give teams dap in this conference, they go off the deep end and the moment I write off a team, they resurrect. Washington won’t go away and Stanford is still in the mix. The Locks are still that way though SC keeps looking shaky with their inconsistent play in the stretch. I’m not sold on Arizona, but as long as they don’t get beat in the Pac-10 quarters they should be in. Key Game: Arizona at Stanford 3/3 3:30p-Both teams need this win, “Zona to quiet the bubble critics, Stanford to stay out of the “Win it to get In It” class.
Pacific Ten Tournament: March 7-10 Staples Center, Los Angeles

Southeastern
Lock-Florida,Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Good Shape- UK
Work to do- Georgia, Ole Miss
UK still needs to avoid a bad loss in the SEC tourney. They are not going to win in Gainesville in what may be Joakim Noah’s last home game. Tennessee punched their dance ticket with a rout of the Gators. Georgia is on life support. Ole Miss has some intriguing numbers, but they have no eye catching wins. The latter two teams would be best advised to make a deep run in the dome to get any serious look.
Key Game: Kentucky at Florida Mar 4 Noon If UK can complete Florida’s late season slump with a win at the O’Connell Center no one will deny them their tourney worthiness.
Southeastern Conference Tournament: March 8-11 Georgia Dome, Atlanta

West Coast
Good Shape-Gonzaga, Santa Clara
I chatted with Andrew Glockner of ESPN.com and he thinks that Gonzaga’s better than 50/50 to get the bid, but not if they lose in the WCC tourney. I concur. But I see it as a two horse race between them and the Broncos.
West Coast Conference Tournament: March 2-5 Chiles Center, Portland Ore.

1 Bid major conferences

Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers are basketballs best kept secret, though I’m annoyed at Calipari’s carping for a high seed.
Conference USA Championships: Mar 7-10 FedEx Forum, Memphis

Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico St, Utah St.
New Mexico State’s loss to Fresno State pushed them to must win the tourney, Utah State barged its way into tourney talk with its OT win over WAC leader Nevada who is all kinds of safe.
Western Athletic Conference Tournament Mar 6-10 Las Cruces, New Mexico
And remember the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West , Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?

Next Update: Mar 6th