Spec Sheet 3/6

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 3/6

Dance tickets are being printed already. Nine schools received automatic bids to the NCAA tournament over the weekend. Penn clinched the Ivy league by beating Princeton Friday. Since the Ivy is the only league with no tournament, the Quakers get the automatic bid by finishing first. Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South), Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley), Davidson (SoCon) and Creighton (Missouri Valley) all wrapped up their league titles and the auto bids that come with them over the weekend. Niagara (MAAC), Gonzaga (West Coast), VMI (Colonial) earned their invites Monday. This spec sheet is shorter, the key games of the big boy conferences will be detailed more on Thursday when some of the opening round games are out of the way. That spec sheet will hopefully be published before the games

The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Duke, Va. Tech, Virginia, Bost. College, Maryland
Good Shape- Georgia Tech
Needs Help- Florida St., Clemson
The ugly loss at the Dean Dome Sunday might hurt the Dukies more with the loss of Gerald Henderson. Georgia Tech’s late run of shocking wins has put them in a real position to be a factor in the ACC tourney. Florida State needed a miracle to beat Miami and Clemson is still hanging on. The Locks are all beyond reproach and no matter what happens in St. Pete are playing for seeding. Can the ACC get 7 teams in?
Key Game: Duke vs NC State- 3/8 4p The reeling Blue Devils had better win here or they might be in bubble trouble land.
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament: March 8-11 St. Pete Times Forum, St. Petersburg, Florida

Atlantic Ten
Lock- Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier is on a roll and barring an unexpected early bad loss should roll into the tourney. The Rams and Minutemen need to get to the final to have any kind of chance, and a win over the Muskies would help matters.
Atlantic Ten Confernce Tournament: March 7-10-Boardwalk Hall Atlantic City

Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs Help- Villanova, Syracuse
The ‘Cuse has nothing but excuses after a damaging loss to Villanova. Road loss or no, the Orange now have to get at least to the Big East Semis. 5 is the most realistic number I can see coming out of the Big East
Key Game: Connecticut vs Syracuse 3/7 2p- The Orange won four in four last year, a repeat may not be needed to get to the tourney, but a loss to UConn would kill any tournament chances.
Big East Conference Tournament: March 7-10-Madison Square Garden New York City

Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Good Shape- Illinois, Michigan State
Work To Do- Michigan, Purdue
The Locks are set, Indiana could get in even with a first round loss, but would be best advised not to test that theory. Illinois and Michigan State both need to get at least one win in the tourney
Big Ten Conference Tournament: March 8-11 United Center, Chicago

Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M , Texas
Good Shape- Kansas State
Needs Help- Texas Tech
The scene in OKC is pretty clear, the Locks are playing for seeding, Kansas State needs to win at least one to solidify their bid chances, Tech needs to get to the Semis.
Big 12 Conference Tournament: Mar 8-11 Ford Center, Oklahoma City

Colonial
In-VCU
Hopin’ And Wishin- Drexel
A new addition to the multiple bid line, shame on me for not giving this solid mid-major more pub. VCU rally past last years tourney darlings George Mason, who was trying to crash the NCAA party with an even louder splash than last year. But the Rams will be a tough out. The real question is a Drexel team that the big boys are praying gets locked out. They have the real potential to not only steal a game in the tourney, but be a real bracket wrecker, like the Patriots were last year. You heard it here first.
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Championship: Virginia Commonwealth over George Mason 65-59

Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State
This is the matchup that this conference tourney was waiting for. Both Wright State and Butler are tough teams but I think Butler can afford the loss.
Horizon Conference Tournament Championship: Wright State at Butler, Hinkle Fieldhouse Indianapolis Tonight

Missouri Valley
In- Creighton
Good Shape- Southern Illinois
Hopin’ and Wishin’ Bradley, Missouri State
Bravo to the Bluejays! Their solid win over a ranked Southern Illinois guarantees that they will only worry about where they are going, not if. The Salukis are going to dance as well but may get a 6 or 7 seed where winning the MVC tourney to go along with their regular season title would have gotten them as high as a 4 seed. Bradley lost a heartbreaker to the Salukis and Mo State got routed by Creighton in the MVC semis and are hoping for the best, I still think that this league should get four like last year but will probably only get two.
Missouri Valley Conference Championship: Creighton 67-61 over Southern Illinois

Mountain West
Locks- Brigham Young
Good Shape-UNLV, Air Force, San Diego State
I know Mormons don’t bet, but their team in Vegas is the only real money lock. UNLV, Air Force and San Diego State need but to get to semis. The Aztecs are the shakiest of the latter three in terms of tourney worthiness. BYU is the only team that could take an early L in the WAC tourney and still get a tourney invite.
Mountain West Conference Tournament: Mar 6, 8-10 Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas

Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Good Shape-Arizona
Needs Help- Washington Arizona helped itself with a tough OT win at Stanford. Unless the Cardinal win four games in four days, they are done. Washington is still in the picture with its stunning upset of UCLA.
Key Game: Washington vs Arizona State 3/7 10:30p- Huskies need to get at least to the Pac-10 semis, a loss versus the cellar dwelling Sun Devils would be a fatal blow.
Pacific Ten Tournament: March 7-10 Staples Center, Los Angeles

Southeastern
Lock-Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Good Shape- UK
Work to do- Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama
UK is still not in real deep bubble trouble…yet. If they get beat by ‘Bama in the SEC first round (no bye for them this year), Wildcat nation starts to sweat. Bama took a pair of awful losses and now need to get at least to the weekend to be okay.
Key Game: Kentucky vs Alabama Mar 8 1p UK needs to win this game to squash bubble trouble talk.
Southeastern Conference Tournament: March 8-11 Georgia Dome, Atlanta

West Coast
In-Gonzaga
Hopin and Wishin’-Santa Clara
The Bulldogs capture the bid behind a stellar performance by Derrick Ravio. The Broncos deserved a bid and their coach Dick Davey deserves better than the treatment that Santa Clara’s AD is giving them. The big boys breath a bit easier because it is unlikely that the WCC will get more than Gonzaga in
West Coast Conference Tournament Championship:-Gonzaga, 77-68 over Santa Clara

1 Bid major conferences

Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers are killing time till Selection Sunday, though a strong run through their invitional...err the C-USA tourney would bode well to get them a #2 seed.
Conference USA Championships: Mar 7-10 FedEx Forum, Memphis

Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico St, Utah St.
Nevada is in the same situation as Memphis, though a trio of big wins would get them a 3 seed. Both Aggies (New Mexico State and Utah State both have the same nickname) need to get to the finals if not win it all.
Western Athletic Conference Tournament Mar 6-10 Pan American Center Las Cruces, New Mexico

The following conference tournament winners will also receive an automatic bid (those that have earned a bid are listed with conference in parentheses) : Amer. East, Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Big Sky, Winthrop (Big South), Big West , VMI (Colonial) Penn (Ivy), MAC, MAAC (Niagara) , MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley), Davidson (Southern) , Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?

Next Update: Mar 8th