Spec Sheet 3/8

2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 3/8

More of the smaller conference crowned champions and handed out berths Tuesday and Wednesday. Led by Wright State stunning Butler for the second time in three weeks and earning the Horizon Conference auto bid. That bodes badly for some bubble teams. Butler will get an at-large bid for sure, but teams like Old Dominion, Illinois, Missouri State and Clemson start to sweat. They need mid-major tourney favorites like Gonzaga to win their respective tournament championship so that they can continue to carp about being tourney worthy. When a good team like Wright State or a Creighton wins an auto bid, no one will deny a Butler or Southern Illinois at large bids. But a smaller conference like the Colonial getting more than one bid is a reach. Sure, George Mason garnered an at-large bid last year and made the most of it, beating three former national champions on their way to the final four. It’ll be an interesting few days to be sure, especially if a Florida State or DePaul make a run into their respective conferences semi-finals or finals.

The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances

Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Duke, Va. Tech, Virginia, Bost. College, Maryland Good Shape- Georgia Tech
Needs Help- Florida St., Clemson
I think 7 is a stretch, lets see what Georgia Tech can do with the momentum beating UNC and BC can do for them. But they aren’t playing in the cozy Alexander Coliseum in Atlanta.
Key Game: Duke vs NC State- 3/8 4p The reeling Blue Devils had better win here or they might be in bubble trouble land.
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament: March 8-11 St. Pete Times Forum, St. Petersburg, Florida

Atlantic Ten
Lock- Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier is on a roll and barring an unexpected early bad loss should roll into the tourney.
Atlantic Ten Confernce Tournament: March 7-10-Boardwalk Hall Atlantic City

Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs Help- West Virginia Villanova, Syracuse
The Orange need to duplicate their tourney title run of last year and beating UConn was a good first step. The top four teams are playing for seeding.
Key Game: Notre Dame vs Syracuse 3/8 2p- If the Orange beat the Irish, they will get a lot longer look
Big East Conference Tournament: March 7-10-Madison Square Garden New York City

Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Good Shape- Illinois, Michigan State
Work To Do- Michigan, Purdue
The Locks are set, Indiana could get in even with a first round loss, but would be best advised not to test that theory. Illinois and Michigan State both need to get at least one win in the tourney
Key Game: Michigan State vs Northwestern 3/8 2:30- The Spartans dare not stumble against perennial Big Ten bottom feeder.
Big Ten Conference Tournament: March 8-11 United Center, Chicago

Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M , Texas
Good Shape- Kansas State
Needs Help- Texas Tech
The scene in OKC is pretty clear, the Locks are playing for seeding, Kansas State needs to win at least one to solidify their bid chances, Tech needs to get to the Semis.
Key Game: Texas Tech vs Colorado: 3/8 – 3p Red Raiders are in the same position as Michigan State with respect to who they are playing and the dire consequences should they lose.
Big 12 Conference Tournament: Mar 8-11 Ford Center, Oklahoma City

Colonial
In-VCU
Hopin’ And Wishin- Drexel, Old Dominion
A new addition to the multiple bid line, shame on me for not giving this solid mid-major more pub. VCU rally past last years tourney darlings George Mason, who was trying to crash the NCAA party with an even louder splash than last year. But the Rams will be a tough out. The real question is a Drexel team that the big boys are praying gets locked out. They have the real potential to not only steal a game in the tourney, but be a real bracket wrecker, like the Patriots were last year. You heard it here first.
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Champion: Virginia Commonwealth over George Mason 65-59

Horizon
In-Wright State
Looking Good-Butler
I erroneously listed this championship in Indy and better than 10,000 at the Nutter Center in Dayton were enthusiactically behind their Raiders who’s late dash to an improbable regular season and conference tourney titles give them their first NCAA berth in 14 years. The Bulldogs are still in line for a well-deserved at large berth.
Horizon Conference Championship: Wright State over Butler 65-59

Missouri Valley
In- Creighton
Good Shape- Southern Illinois
Hopin’ and Wishin’ Bradley, Missouri State
Bravo to the Bluejays! Their solid win over a ranked Southern Illinois guarantees that they will only worry about where they are going, not if. The Salukis are going to dance as well but may get a 6 or 7 seed where winning the MVC tourney to go along with their regular season title would have gotten them as high as a 4 seed. Bradley lost a heartbreaker to the Salukis and Mo State got routed by Creighton in the MVC semis and are hoping for the best, I still think that this league should get four like last year but will probably only get two.
Missouri Valley Conference Champions: Creighton 67-61 over Southern Illinois

Mountain West
Locks- Brigham Young
Good Shape-UNLV, Air Force, San Diego State
I know Mormons don’t bet, but their team in Vegas is the only real money lock. UNLV, Air Force and San Diego State need but to get to semis. The Aztecs are the shakiest of the latter three in terms of tourney worthiness. BYU is the only team that could take an early L in the WAC tourney and still get a tourney invite.
Key Game: Air Force vs Wyoming 3/8 5:30- Could the Falcons get locked out? If they lose badly to a decent Cowboys squad, it could happen
Mountain West Conference Tournament: Mar 6, 8-10 Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas

Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Good Shape-Arizona
Needs Help- Washington
The Huskies could realistically get to the Pac-10 finals, beating the Sun Devils then Wash. St would help. A matchup with USC would loom then. UCLA will hammer who ever they get in their first game. If Washington gets to the final and loses honorably…who knows. Five bids are realistic but if the Huskies get to Saturday they could sneak in.
Key Game: Stanford vs USC 3/8 9p- If Cardinal want to get seriously considered they need to beat the Trojans.
Pacific Ten Tournament: March 7-10 Staples Center, Los Angeles

Southeastern
Lock-Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Good Shape- UK
Work to do- Georgia, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama
Only UK is really in any kind of real danger. The Work to do quartet need to get to Saturday.
Key Game: Kentucky vs Alabama Mar 8 1p UK needs to win this game to squash bubble trouble talk.
Southeastern Conference Tournament: March 8-11 Georgia Dome, Atlanta

West Coast
In-Gonzaga
Hopin and Wishin’-Santa Clara
The Bulldogs capture the bid behind a stellar performance by Derrick Ravio. The Broncos deserved a bid and their coach Dick Davey deserves better than the treatment that Santa Clara’s AD is giving them. The big boys breath a bit easier because it is unlikely that the WCC will get more than Gonzaga in
West Coast Conference Tournament Champions:Gonzaga, 77-68 over Santa Clara

1 Bid major conferences

Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers victory lap around C-USA starts today
Conference USA Championships: Mar 7-10 FedEx Forum, Memphis

Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico St, Utah St.Nevada is in the same situation as Memphis, though a trio of big wins would get them a 3 seed. Both Aggies (New Mexico State and Utah State both have the same nickname) need to get to the finals if not win it all.
Western Athletic Conference Tournament: Mar 6-10 Pan American Center Las Cruces, New Mexico

The following conference tournament winners will also receive an automatic bid (those that have earned a bid are listed with conference in parentheses) : Amer. East, Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Big Sky, Winthrop (Big South), Big West , Winthrop (Colonial) Penn (Ivy), MAC, MAAC (Niagara) , MEAC, Mid-Continent (Oral Roberts) ,Central Connecticut (Northeast), Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley), Davidson (Southern) , Southland, Sun Belt (North Texas) , SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?

Next Update: Mar 9th