Week 3 Picks

Hold on a minute, let me adjust my hearing aid and you know my lumbago and senility are starting to get the best of me. Most folks complain loudly about getting older. Me, I'm sharper at 35 than I was at 21. And my picks are still pretty sharp too. These picks will be the first I make on the back side of my thirties and should be just as good.
Last week while respectable at 10-6, was full of picks that could have easily went the other way. Shame on the Rams, Vikes and Saints for losing winnable games and the Bengals I'm not even sure what happened there. But while so many picked the Bengals as a lock. I knew better. And sooner or later when I pick the upset, you'll listen and just so you don't forget I'll let you know with the designation upset special. This weeks games have plenty of flava to them...
(Lines provided courtesy of USA TODAY Sports weekly and are for comparison and entertainment purposes only, so don't come crying to me if you get took to the cleaners on the lines!)

NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 3

Sunday, September 23 All Times EDT

Cardinals (1-1) @ Ravens (1-1)
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Ravens by 10.5
Fast Fact-The Number 20 means a lot to these two 1-1 teams The Ravens have scored 20 in both games and the Cards have allowed 20 in both games

The Cards are bound and determined to run the ball. Good luck with that philosophy against a run-stingy Ravens D. The Cards need to get a quick lead and take the crowd out. If Matt Leinart has to roll the dice against Ed Reed and company he might very well come up snake eyes. The Cards are a young team on the rise, but they are not near as ready to go into a tough venue and win.
Pick-Baltimore

Bills (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro MA 1:00 CBS
Patriots by 15.5
Fast Fact The Pats have a six game home winning streak against the Bills

A study in contrasts, the Bills have struggled with an offensive that is not holding up its end to complement a sturdy defense. Don't let the score in against the Steelers last week fool ya. The Bills hung tough in the Steel City before fading late. The Pats on the other hands seem to have found their stride early as identical 38-14 beatdowns of the Jets and Chargers have shown. The Bills defense will again play tough only to watch their offense do nothing and get beat late
Pick-New England (Lock Pick of The Week)

Lions (2-0) @ Eagles (0-2)
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 1:00 FOX
Favorite-Eagles by 7
Fast Fact-The Lions have not won in Philadelphia since 1986

You are a stone cold lie if you said you thought that the motor city kitties would be the 2-0 team in this matchup. The Illadelph is in full panic with two painful losses and DMcNabb is doing them no favors with his pointed critcism. As much as I would love to call this the upset. I'll hold off on the Lions for one more week and say the Eagles get a badly needed win.
Pick-Philadelphia

Colts (2-0) @ Texans (2-0)
Reliant Stadium, Houston 1:00 CBS
Favorite Colts by 5
Fast Fact The Texans were the last team to have beaten the Colts in a regular or postseason game. (27-24 in week 16 last year)

The biggest game so far in the Texans short history, they are feeling oh so good about themselves after a stunning rout of the Panthers last week. The learning curve gets a lot steeper and dont think the Colts are mindful of the aforementioned fast fact so they will be on guard. Without Andre Johnson the Texans are without a key offensive cog and you need everyone you have to keep up with the Colts highpowered offense. The Texans aren't ready to make that step to the big time yet.
Pick-Indianapolis

Dolphins (0-2) @ NY Jets (0-2)
The Meadowlands; East Rutherford, NJ 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Jets by 3
Fast Fact The Jets have won five of the last six meetings

Though Kellen Clemens was decent in rallying the Jets to a near upset in Baltimore, he's not ready to lead the Jets just yet. The men of Gotham/East Jersey need Chad Pennington to be under center. Meanwhile the Dolphins are a mess, and their offense is going nowhere with no real gamebreaking receivers to take the pressure off of a slow starting running game and lets not start on the Fins suddenly suspect defense who has taken a steep fall from their respectbale showing of a year before. If the Jets can get their running game on track, the game is very much theirs for the taking.
Pick-New York Jets


Vikings (1-1) @ Chiefs (0-2)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City 1:00 FOX
Favorite Chiefs by 2.5
Fast Fact The Vikings have lost their last seven games played outside

The Chiefs and Vikes have two of the most stagnant offenses this side of Notre Dame, whichever team can establish a better ground presence will slug out the win. I'm gonna go against my gut here, since the Chiefs are usually very strong in front of the loyal loud crowd. The Vikes steal this one.
Pick-Minnesota


Chargers (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)
Lambeau Field, Green Bay 1:00 FOX
Favorite Chargers by 4
Fast Fact This is the Chargers first trip to Green Bay since 1996

After catching a serious beatdown on Sunday Night in New England the Chargers have another tough roadie in Green Bay. Brett Favre may not like having to keep an eye on the kids, but his young offense played well last week rolling up over 400 yards against the Giants and the defense has been solid in two outings giving up 13 points in each game. That said the Pack have their work cut out for them, this will be the best offense that they have dealt with so far and that young Pack offense had best be advised to keep tabs on Shawne Merriman leading a volitale pass rush that could make the afternoon long for Favre. The Chargers offense and LT are overdue for a breakout game.
Pick-San Diego


49ers (2-0) @ Steelers (2-0)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Steelers by 8.5
Fast Fact The Steelers are 11-1 against the NFC the past three years
Both these teams are unbeaten but in very different ways. The Steelers have yet to be really challenged in routs of the Browns and Bills. The Niners are a couple of plays from being 0-2 as they rallied to beat the Cards and Rams. The Steelers new look offense has Big Ben throwing all over the place, the Niners had best get a lead. Alex Smith can not be trusted to rally a team from behind on the road just yet and in a hostile venue like Pittsburgh it simply can not be done.
Pick-Pittsburgh

Rams (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Buccaneers by 4
Fast Fact-The Rams and Bucs have played in each other twice in the playoffs with the Rams winning both times to advance to the Super Bowl

Many pundits looked at the Rams as a dark horse for the NFC West title but their offense is coming apart fast with injuries on the offensive line. Steven Jackson cant get yards and Marc Bulger cant go downfield if they are picking themselves off the ground behind the line of scrimmage more often than not. Look for the Bucs to pick on the Rams weak secondary and get a lead, the Rams while offensively gifted at the skill positions will be betrayed by their weak line
Pick-Tampa Bay


Bengals (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)
Qwest Field, Seattle 4:05 (CBS)
Favorite Seahawks by 7
This is the Bengals first appearance in Qwest Field and their first trip to Seattle since 1999
The Bengals are still reeling from their 51 point defensive diarrhea against the Browns who probably wont score 51 in their next four games. A 401 yard 6 TD performance by Carson Palmer was wasted as was a sparkling 11 catch 209 yard day by Chad Johnson. The Bengals offense looked good, their defense needs to tighten up and not let Shawn Alexnader get heated up, he can break a big run off at anytime. The Bengals are notoriously bad on the road and Qwest Field gives the Seahawks a marked edge. In a bizzaro season so far, this looks like another game that should go one way that goes so much in the opposite.
Pick-Cincinnati (Upset Special of the Week)


Browns (1-1) @ Raiders (0-2)
McAfee Coliseum, Oakland 4:05 CBS
Favorite-Raiders by 3
Fast Fact-The Browns have won the last three meetings

Derek Anderson torched the Bengals for 328 yards and five scores last week. He wont have as easy a time against a good Raider defense. Though the silver and black have struggled offensively they gave the Broncos all they could handle in Denver losing a tough OT decision. The Browns offense wont put up the kind of numbers that they did last week and the honeymoon for Anderson will be a short one indeed as Brown fans will renew their calls for Brady Quinn after this week.
Pick-Oakland

Jaguars (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)
Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver 4:05 (CBS)
Favorite Broncos by 3
Fast Fact-The Broncos were the first team since 2004 to win back to back decisions on the games final play.

Both teams are searching for their offense. David Garrard is still looking over his shoulder and his play has reflected it. Jay Cutler has made good plays but has had some Homer Simpson-like moments, but he doesn't beat himself and the Broncos are starting to trust his leadership. That said the Broncos can ill afford to let the combo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew gobble up yards like LaMont Jordan did for the Raiders. The Jags running game has the tools and talent to make it a long afternoon. The Broncos have always played well at home and the Jags are not the best of road teams. The Broncos will continue to live on the edge but wont get burned this week.
Pick-Denver

Panthers (1-1) @ Falcons (0-2)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta 4:15 (FOX)
Favorite-Panthers by 4
Fast Fact The Panthers have won three of the past four meetings
The Panthers, stung by a wholly unexpected beatdown from the Texans look to take it out on a woefully offensive inept Falcons squad. Look for the Falcons to try to keep the game low scoring to have any kind of chance, but if Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith get on a roll, look out.
Pick-Carolina


NY Giants (0-2) @ Redskins (2-0)
FedEx Field; Landover, MD 4:15 (FOX)
Favorite-Redskins by 3.5
Fast Fact The Giants swept the season series with the Redskins in 2006
The G-Men are a rout away from full meltdown. The Skins dont have the offense to roll up the points but do have a solid 1-2 running game punch with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Jason Campbell is learning how to manage a game and has done so with aplomb. That seat is starting to sizzle under Tom Coughlin and a loss to their long time rivals will cool it none.
Pick-Washington



Dallas (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)
Soldier Field, Chicago 8:15 (NBC)
Favorite-Bears by 3
Fast Fact These two teams will appear on primetime a total of 12 times this season.

The Pokes offense has been humming, though the Bears present more resistance than the Giants or Dolphins have in the past two weeks. Wreck Grossman is doing his usual self destructon and it will undoubtedly cost the Monsters of the Midway a game or four. Mistakes can not be made against the Cowboys who will take advantage of any miscue and turn it into points. That is something that the Bears can't produce in large quantites under Grossman's offensive stewardship.
Pick-Dallas



Monday, September 24

Titans (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans 8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite-Saints by 5
Fast Fact-The Saints have the NFL's worst record on Monday Night (7-15)

The Titans are quickly becoming a handful as they nearly stole one from the Colts last week. Vince Young has not played spectacular but has played good enough to keep the Titans in the ballgame. The Saints meanwhile are reekling after two shocking blowouts on the road. The Big Easy has waited a while to welcome their feelgood story back home. I should know better, but I think a bit of home cooking will be just the tonic to get a better than they have looked Saints squad off the mat.
Pick-New Orleans

Last Week 10-6 (Upset Picked Correctly)
Overall 24-8 (2/2 Upsets)