Week 4 Picks

Another ten win week for your humble scribe in week 3, and of course the upset did not pan out this week. But the lock remains constant. The first of the bye weeks are upon us, though I think that three weeks is a little too early. Though the Saints might heartily disagree with my assessment; I think that the byes should start in week four, I’m glad that they stopped doing week 1 or 17 byes, that just was aesthetically wrong.
Submitted for your approval and review are this weeks picks, the lines are courtesy of Yahoo Sports and are for entertainment and comparison purposes only. I say this to keep someone from trying to hunt me down cause they went with a bad spread, but in any case here are my picks.



NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 4 All Times EDT
Note: Jacksonville (2-1), New Orleans (0-3), Tennessee (2-1), Washington (2-1). Have a bye this week.

Sunday, September 30

Ravens (2-1) @ Browns (1-2)
Browns Stadium, Cleveland 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Ravens by 4
Fast Fact- Jamal Lewis in week 2 became the first NFL player to rush for 200 yards for and against the same team.

The Ravens have seemed to have shaken off their opening week loss with a pair of wins, though they should be ashamed for letting a beaten Arizona team back into a rather one sided affair. The Browns lost a toughie in Oakland and the gimmes are few and far between. The Cleveland crowd will be vociferous in their hatred of the Ravens but it will make little matter. The Ravens are still way better than the Browns and Derek Anderson will learn how easy he had it two weeks ago now that he is facing a much much less forgiving defense that the Ravens have.
Pick-Baltimore

Bears (1-2) @ Lions (2-1)
Ford Field, Detroit 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Bears by 3
Fast Fact- Jon Kitna threw for a Lions record 446 yards against the Eagles last week.

The Bears have finally benched Wreck Grossman in favor of grizzled vet Brian Griese, I’m not really sure if that is the long term answer to solve the instability that has long plagued that position, but it makes Bears fans happy. The Lions a team that I have long decried a fraud elite team, are trying to recover from the double whammy of the hideous unis and the defensive sieve-like meltdown that happened in Philly last week. Kitna and company will quickly find that though the Bears might not hang 56 on them they will have a hard time matching the 21 that they scored last week as well.
Pick-Chicago


Packers (3-0) @ Vikings (1-2)
HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite- Packers by 1.5
Fast Fact- Brett Favre’s next TD pass puts him past Dan Marino for career TD passes.

The Vikings reeling after an inexplicable loss to woeful Kansas City are catching the Pack at the absolute wrong time. Favre has his offense humming and AJ Hawk looks ready to take his place at the linebacker elite. All of this bodes badly for a Vikings team searching for its identity. As much as it pains me to say it. The Vikes are hopelessly outclassed here and the Pack should roll.
Pick-Green Bay


Texans (2-1) @ Falcons (0-3)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Texans by 3
Fast Fact- Matt Schaub completed passes to ten different receivers last week against the Colts.

Playing the rare role of road bully the Texans look to bounce back from a tough divisional loss. The Falcons will prove to be a welcome tonic. Mario Williams has really begun to assert himself as a real defensive stopper. While Matt Schaub is unspectacular but handles the offense with few flaws. The Falcons are not even close to being ready to handle this up and coming team.
Pick-Houston

Jets (1-2) @ Bills (0-3)
Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard Park, NY 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Jets by 3.5
Fast Fact- The Bills are dead last in the NFL in yardage per game (200)
The Jets got a badly needed win against the Fins, and can right their listing ship with a road win over a Bills squad that had much higher aspirations. Simply put the Bills offense is not ready for prime time and JP Losman is quickly losing the confidence of the fans who were willing to wait through his growing pains. They have yet to see a payoff. I want to see an upset here, but with the Bills hit hard by injuries and the Jets gaining confidence with the return of Chad Pennington, I cant bring myself to call it.
Pick- NY Jets

Raiders (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)
Dolphin Stadium, Miami 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Dolphins by 4
Fast Fact- Dolphins coach Cam Cameron is off the worst start by a first year Dolphins coach since George Wilson lost his first five in 1966.

The Raiders finally got one to fall their way as they sweated out a tight one against the Browns. The Dolphins are fading fast and keep finding ways to lose close winnable games. Daunte Culpepper gets the start and it may be a good bet to say he wants revenge on the team that in his eyes gave up on him too soon. If the Raiders establish a run game, not an easy task against a still respectable Dolphins defense. They should be able to squeak one out. The Raiders defense should be able to push around the Fins puny offense. Only considered an upset since the Raiders have been notoriously bad road team as of late.
Pick Oakland (Upset of the Week)


Rams (0-3) @ Cowboys (3-0)
Texas Stadium; Irving, TX 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Cowboys by 13
Fast Fact Cowboys looking for their first 4-0 start since 1995, their last Super Bowl Season.

Suddenly the chic pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl the Pokes are piling up the points at a furious clip. They will face little resistance from a Rams team that has no clue offensively. Not the best time to face a team that has scored 45, 37 and 34 point in its last three outings. Commissioner Goddell should be on standby to keep the score from getting too crazy.
Pick-Dallas


Seahawks (2-1) @ 49ers (2-1)
Monster Park, San Francisco 4:05 (FOX)
Favorite-Seahawks by 2
Fast Fact-Frank Gore’s 39 yards last week against the Steelers was his lowest rushing total as a starter.

The Seahawks come off a tighter than expected home win over the Bengals while the Niners are still rubbing their collective backside after a sobering beat down against the Steelers. The Niners have won the close ones, but have yet to prove that they can win against good teams.
Pick-Seattle

Buccaneers (2-1) @ Panthers (2-1)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte 4:05 (FOX)
Favorite-Panthers by 3
Fast Fact- Panthers have won seven of the last eight meetings including the last five in Charlotte.

Carolina bounced back nicely to thump a sad sack Falcons teams and the Bucs made a beat down look almost boring and methodical. The two teams meet in a showdown for early control of the NFC South. The Bucs will find out that the Panthers defense will not be as easy to manipulate as the Rams and Saints were. And Carolina though likely tested against the hardy Bucs D should be able to cash in on the inevitable turnovers that the opportunistic Panters D will cause. Jake Delhomme has been hurting but whomever the Panthers start at QB it should be enough to carry the day.
Pick-Carolina


Broncos (2-1) @ Colts (3-0)
RCA Dome, Indianapolis 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite-Colts by 9.5
Fast Fact- The Colts have won 11 straight in the month of September.

The weeks best match up is in Indy where the Colts fresh off a division reasserting win over the Texans come home to face a Denver squad that it has had no trouble beating in their past meetings. Peyton Manning is already in midseason form and that bodes badly for the Broncos who took a bad loss to the Jags last week when they couldn’t get possession much in the game only having the ball barely 21 minutes. The Colts have the horsepower (pun intended) to run (and pass) the Broncos out. Jay Cutler will find the sledding tougher than against the Jags where he struggled. The Colts at home are fierce and this one should be no different.
Pick-Indianapolis


Kansas City (1-2) @ San Diego (1-2)
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite Chargers by 11.5
Fast Fact- The Chiefs lead the all-time series, 49-43-1, but the Chargers have won four of the last six


The Chiefs are feeling good about themselves after an ugly win over the Vikes, but they catch the Chargers at the worst time. Stung after a humiliating loss to the Pats on national TV two weeks ago and a fall from ahead loss to the Pack last week, the Bolts come in mean and mad. The Chiefs one dimensional offense has trouble against athletic fronts like the Chargers and this will be no different. Look for the Chargers to jump out early and pour it on, just so there is no mistaking.
Pick-San Diego (Lock of the Week)

Pittsburgh (3-0) @ Arizona (1-2)
University Of Phoenix Stadium; Glendale, AZ 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite Steelers by 6
Fast Fact- The Steelers look for their first 4-0 since 1979

Princess Katie asked me if I knew who Kurt Warner was and why he may be starting in place of her favorite QB Matt Leinart. I explained that Warner has more experience. She countered but Daddy, Warner is old…he’s older than you how’s he gonna keep from getting hurt? Ouch. The Cards may have moxie but they won’t beat the Steelers.
Pick-Pittsburgh


Eagles (1-2) @ Giants (1-2)
Giants Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ 8:15 (NBC)
Favorite Eagles by 3
Fast Fact- Both teams won on the road in their two meetings last year.

The Eagles rolled up the points last week and that may be the key against the G-men. Getting on them early forces Eli Manning to have to try to win the game with his arm, something he seems increasingly incapable of doing. With his top wideout Plaxico Burress hobbled that task is doubly tough. And while its doubtful that the Giants will leave Kevin Curtis as wide open as the Lions seemed to continuously do last week. Donovan McNabb will spread the ball around enough to make life tough on the Giants and get the seat under Tom Coughlin heated again.
Pick- Philadelphia

Monday, October 1

Patriots (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite Patriots by 7
Fast Fact- The Pats have won the last two meetings, scoring 35+ each time.

This game reminds me of when I used to get into trouble when I was a kid and my mom would succinctly tell me that I was “In for it” when she got home from work. I would sit at home, waiting for her to arrive and wait for the butt whooping that I was due. She might wait for a while but sooner or later out would come the belt and I would really get it. Such is the fate of the Bengals this week against the Patriots. The Bengals know that The Patriots are coming and they know what they are going to get. Though the Bengals seem to play better under the lights, the Pats have too many weapons and must be salivating at the chance to torch the Bengals soft defense. The Bengals offense, hampered by Rudi Johnson's absence, is in the unenviable position of having to match the Pats score for score and when they don’t the scale will tip and the Bengals will get buried.
Pick-New England

Last Week 10-6 (upset not correct, Lock Correct)
Overall 34-14 (2/3 upsets, 3/3 Locks)