Week 5 NFL Picks

I should have known better than to taunt the football gods, here I was rolling along the first three weeks of the 2007 season and had the nerve to complain about a 10-win week. It seems that a 6-8 week will put some humility in you in a hurry. The upset panned out (Thanks Daunte you came through for once) The Lock didn’t (Don’t you think the Chargers wish they hadn’t run Marty Schottenheimer off???) Oh well, Princess Katie (who just turned 11) tells me “Shake it off, daddy everyone has a brain fart from time to time.” On that bit of wisdom, I’ll submit for your review and approval this weeks picks and as always the spreads from USA Today Sports are for entertainment and comparison purposes only. If you got cleaned out last week or this week for that matter, its on you.

NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 5 All Times EDT
Note: Cincinnati (1-3), Minnesota (1-3), Philadelphia (1-3) and Oakland (2-2) all have a bye this week

Sunday, October 7

Cardinals (2-2) @ Rams (0-4)
Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite- Cardinals by 3.5
Fast Fact- The Rams offense haven’t gotten to the end zone since the 2nd quarter of game 2 against the 49ers

The Rams are coming apart and fast, what was once a promising offense has sputtered and a shaky defense has gotten repeatedly burned. The Cards are coming off a shocking win against the Steelers, but have a brewing QB controversy with ageless Kurt Warner making it look easy and taking the job from franchise QB Matt Leinart. The Rams are beatable, but I can’t bank on the Cards on the road just yet.
Pick-St. Louis


Atlanta (1-3) @ Tennessee (2-1)
LP Field, Nashville 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite- Titans by 9
Fast Fact- Though these teams are but 245 miles apart, they have only played once in the past eight years.

Joey Harrington had his once a year good game as the Falcons beat the Texans, they will not get as lucky against a well rested Titans team. Vince Young is looking more and more like the dangerous passer/scrambler that he was in college and looks as if he is adapting to the pro game fast. A soft Falcons running game will have lots of trouble against a fast, mobile and hard hitting Titans defense and that puts the pressure on Harrington who usually cracks under such circumstances.
Pick-Tennessee


Carolina (2-2) @ New Orleans (0-3)
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans 1:00 FOX
Favorite- Saints by 3
Fast Fact- The Saints are winless in the first three games for the first time since 1997

The Saints cant catch a break, losing versatile RB Deuce McCallister to a season ending knee injury. Their offense already struggling loses a valuable component . The wildly inconsistent Panthers lose the home games that they should win and win the road games that they should lose. That maddening trend will continue.
Pick-Carolina

Cleveland (2-2) @ New England (4-0)
Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite- Patriots by 16.5
Fast Fact- The Patriots have won the last three meetings

The Browns are feeling their oats after a shocking domination of their hated rival Ravens. The problem is the Patriots are not on the same level. People might forget that uber-genius Bill Belichick was a laconic coach of so-so Browns teams in the early 90’s. Its amazing how talent and a GM that can get it can make you smarter. Brady, Moss, Stallworth, Maroney. Compare that to Anderson, Winslow, Edwards and Lewis. The Browns will keep it interesting but the Pats wont get caught looking ahead to the matchup with the Cowboys
Pick-New England

Detroit (3-1) @ Washington (2-1)
FedEx Field; Landover, MD 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite- Redskins by 3.5
Fast Fact- The Lions are 0-20 against the Redskins in DC, including 3 playoff losses by a combined score of 99-30

Surprisingly this is one of the weeks better matchups. But the rested Skins are wary of the Lions scoring punch, this team can score and in a hurry as Jon Kitna has taken well to Martz’s offensive schemes. The Skins would like to pound away with Clinton Portis. They say streaks gotta end sometime. If the Lions break this one, this might be a special season…who am I kidding. The Lions have never won in Washington and that wont change.
Pick-Washington

Jacksonville (2-1) @ Kansas City (2-2)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite- Jaguars by 2.5
Fast Fact- The teams have split their last four meetings both winning once on each others turf.

The Chiefs are fresh off a shocking rout of the Chargers and come home to face a rested Jaguars team that despite a sluggish offense has started 2-1. The Chiefs are not as good as their record. This will be a grinding type game, I’ll flip a coin and probably be wrong, but I have a feeling that Larry Johnson is due. The Chiefs steal a tight one at home and Herm Edwards continues to confound his critics…including me.
Pick-Kansas City

Miami (0-4) @ Houston (2-2)
Reliant Stadium, Houston 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Texans by 5.5
Fast Fact-The Dolphins have never beaten the Texans.

The Texans blew a chance to strengthen their rep by blowing a winnable game in Atlanta. They get another very winnable game, this time at home versus a Dolphins team that is rapidly disintegrating. If the Raiders punchless offense can drop 35 on them, what will a decently balanced Texan offense do. Matt Schaub now has another Andre to throw to as Andre Davis may make a suitable complement to Andre Johnson. The Dolphins offense is Ronnie Brown and that won’t be nearly enough.
Pick-Houston

Jets (1-3) @ Giants (2-2)
Giants Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-
Fast Fact-The Jets make the NFL’s shortest road trip, they keep their locker room though in Giants Stadium.

Both of Gotham’s teams have gotten off to slow starts though the G-Men have found their legs and showed a newfound defensive ferocity in a rugged win against the Eagles. The Jets blew a winnable road game despite the solid play of Chad Pennington. If Thomas Jones has another 16 carry 35 yard day against a Giant defense much better than a beat up Bills squad, it will be long one indeed
Pick-New York Giants

Seattle (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (3-1)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite- Steelers by 6
Fast Fact-This is the Seahawks first visit to Heinz Field

This is another solid matchup, the Steelers are coming off a puzzling loss to the Cards, something the Seahawks can relate to as well. Expect a tight brusing game, but the Steelers solid run game spearheaded by “Fast” Willie Parker will give the Seahawks suspect run defense a bunch of trouble.
Pick-Pittsburgh


Tampa Bay (3-1) @ Indianapolis (4-0)
RCA Dome, Indianapolis 4:05 (FOX)
Favorite- Colts by 11
Fast Fact- These teams one meeting in the past eight years was a wild 38-35 OT shootout, won by the Colts

Most expected the Colts to be 4-0, but the Bucs fast start has turned some heads, The Bucs will be without Cadillac Williams who is out with a year-ending knee injury. This puts pressure on Jeff Garcia. The Colts have been hit with the injuries as well. If Manning offensive linchpins Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai are slowed, things could get interesting.
Not interesting enough for an upset, but interesting enough to be a close game.
Pick-Indianapolis

Baltimore (2-2) @ San Francisco (2-2)
Monster Park, San Francisco 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite- Ravens by 3
Fast Fact- Trent Dilfer will start against the team that he wona Super Bowl with 7 years ago.

Dilfer? Is he still in this league?? Apparently so, and he will get an emergency start against the team that got him that Super Bowl ring, the Ravens smarting from an unexpected beat down by the Browns are too good to get ambushed twice. But continued ragged play by Steve McNair won’t help matters.
Pick Baltimore

San Diego (1-3) @ Denver (2-2)
Invesco Field @ Mile High Stadium, Denver 4:15 (CBS)
Favorite- Broncos by 1.5
Fast Fact- Its been 40 years since the Chargers have won consecutive games in Denver (67-68)

Both of these teams are off to slow starts, but believe it or not the Broncos are tied for the division lead and the Chargers are but a game behind. The Broncos are a hard team to figure, their defense can’t keep bailing out an offense that is stuck in neutral and hampered their recent inability to finish scoring drives. The Broncos usual strong running game has not cashed in on the scoring chances that they have had. LaDainian Tomlinson is way overdue for a breakout game, and I’m not saying that because hes on my fantasy teams. But I can’t see the Broncos losing back to back home games. The Chargers are kicking themselves more every week for letting Marty Schottenheimer go.
Pick-Denver

Chicago (1-3) @ Green Bay (4-0)
Lambeau Field, Green Bay 8:15 (NBC)
Favorite- Packers by 3.5
Fast Fact- The Packers are off to their best start in ten years

The last time these two teams met, it was supposed to be a last hurrah for Brett Favre a primetime farewell in an otherwise meaningless game. Favre and the Pack beat the Bears but it was hardly his last game. Favre has suddenly developed a case of flashback, his solid play has got the Pack off to a fast start. Brian Griese has proven to be no more effective than Rex Grossman was in winning games. I doubt that playing at a raucous Lambeau will change his fortunes.
Pick-Green Bay

Monday, October 8

Dallas (4-0) @ Buffalo (1-3)
Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard Park, NY 8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite-Cowboys by 10
Fast Fact-This is the Cowboys first trip to Buffalo since 1996

The Pokes are flying high as their offense continues to crank out points at an obscene clip. The Bills pedestrian offense got a surprise boost from the play of rookie QB Trent Edwards. The problem is there is a big difference from playing the Jets and playing the Cowboys on Monday Night. The ‘Boys defense will force mistakes and it will be another night of listening to more blatherings by Tony Kornheiser…yuck
Pick-Dallas

Last Week 6-8 (Upset Correct, Lock incorrect)
Overall 40-22 (3-1 Upset Specials, 3-1 Lock Picks)