Week 8 Picks

Another so-so week at 8-6, but its not a losing one. I was about to get real happy when the Texans rallied from 32-7 down to take the lead. But the game slipped away (sigh) I was looking pretty prescient when the Vikes were up 14-7, then it all fell apart (dang!) We already know about how the Lions keep jacking me up and the Eagles have no excuse for blowing that game against the Eagles. Well now that I’ve made excuses for almost all of my losses, its time to just time to move on to this week. There are a couple of trap games on the docket this week. Submitted for your inspection review and approval are this weeks picks, with the odds provided courtesy of USA Today Sports Weekly. Those odds are for comparison and entertainment purposes only. I add that caveat so you don’t mistake me for a bookie or odds maker and want to hit me up when you bet your kids college fund on that Redskins-Pats line and lose.

NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 8
Schedule Notes: Arizona (3-4); Atlanta (1-6); Baltimore (4-3); Dallas (6-1); Kansas City (4-3); Seattle (4-3). Are on a bye this week.
The Texans-Chargers game may be played at a different locale due to the wildfires in Southern California.
The Dolphins are the designated home team in their matchup against the Giants in London.
There is no Sunday night game this week as the NFL defers to game 4 of the World Series

Sunday, October 28

Browns (3-3) @ Rams (0-7)
Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Browns by 3
Fast Fact-The Rams have been outscored 114-19 in their last four road games, scoring only 1 touchdown total.
Breakdown- The Rams are offensive, no not the offensive type like they used to be from 99-03. They are offensively putrid. Getting Marc Bulger back may be some sort of help, but not much. The Browns feeling frisky with a 3-3 record, why do I want to say the Rams pull the stunning upset? Though the Browns have been alternating wins and losses, I think they break that pattern this week.
Pick-Cleveland

Lions (4-2) @ Bears (3-4)
Soldier Field, Chicago 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Bears by 5
Fast Fact- The Lions have been outscored 80-24 in their last two road games
The Lions are a tough team to figure, scoring like mad one week and then needing a map to the end zone the next. The Bears have been just as maddening and they are still smarting over giving up 34 4th quarter points in a fall from ahead loss to these same Lions 4 weeks ago. The Bears need to control the game with an smart concise running game. While the Lions want to get offensively bonkers. I’ve been hating on the Lions all year and I don’t think I’ll stop now.
Pick-Chicago

Colts (6-0) @ Panthers (4-2)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Colts by 6.5
Fast Fact- The Colts are the first team since 2004 to follow a road Monday night game with another road game (Minnesota was the last team to have to do that in 2004)
This looks like a game that could be a trap for the Colts, looking past the Panthers at the second game of the century against the Pats. For the Panthers, will it be Carr or Testaverde at QB? The Panthers are ready and rested coming off of their bye. Testaverde proved a lot of folks wrong with his efficient performance against the Cards in week 6, but the Colts ain’t the Cards and their defense is much faster and sharper. Peyton Manning has been his usual pinpoint self, and if he gets rolling it won’t matter who is under center for the Panthers, as they will not survive a high scoring affair.
Pick-Indianapolis

NY Giants (5-2) vs. Dolphins (0-7)
Wembley Stadium; London, England 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Giants by 4
Fast Fact-This is the first NFL regular season game played in England and the second game to be played internationally (Cardinals beat Niners 31-14 in Mexico City in 2005)
The G-Men have put their horrid 0-2 start far behind them and have been winning with a nasty defense and a solid if unspectacular running game. I’ve officially decided to stop being so critical of Eli Manning; he won’t duplicate his more heralded older brother, but he has settled nicely into a good game manager. The Dolphins had better enjoy their international spotlight as the British will see how bad a football team can be.
Pick-New York Giants (Lock of the Week)

Raiders (2-4) @ Titans (4-2)
LP Field, Nashville 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Titans by 7
Fast Fact The Titans Rob Bironas kicked 8 FG at Houston last week breaking the NFL record of 7 held by 4 different kickers.
Aside from a beat down of the hapless Dolphins, the Raiders are horrid on the road losing 13 of their last 14. The Titans nearly gave away their win last week and needed Bironas’ accuracy to bail them out. Vince Young looks to be back under center but he won’t need to scramble as much. If the Titans can establish their run game, which should be easy to do against the Swiss-cheese like Raiders run defense, they should be able to grind out a win
Pick-Tennessee

Eagles (2-4) @ Vikings (2-4)
H.H.H. Metrodome, Minneapolis 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite-Eagles by 1.5
Fast Fact- The Eagles have not won in Minnesota since 1985
The Eagles are coming off a heartbreaking last second loss to the Bears and suddenly Andy Reid’s seat has gotten a tad warm. The Vikes got hosed by the Cowboys hindered by puzzling non-use of Adrian Peterson who was held to a career low 63 yards a week after his club record 224 yard performance. The Eagles will load the box up and dare struggling Tavaris Jackson to beat them. Something tells me that while he might not have a breakout game, he’ll do just enough to loosen up the Eagles defense for AP to break off a run or two and win a close one.
Pick-Minnesota

Steelers (4-2) @ Bengals (2-4)
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite-Steelers by 3.5
Fast Fact-Neither Carson Palmer (0-4) or Marvin Lewis (0-5) has led the Bengals to a home victory against the Steelers
Kill all the madness the media wants you to believe, The Steelers do not hold the Bengals in a rivalry regard, they instead consider them more like the annoying little brother that will never be more than a pest. Angered over a bad loss in Denver, the Steelers will take it out on the Bengals who are teetering on the brink of a collapse. Willie Parker has always feasted on the Bengals soft run defense and its highly doubtful that Kenny Watson will duplicate his 31 carry 130 yard effort. As much I loath to do so, I can’t see the Bengals getting the win here.
Pick-Pittsburgh

Bills (2-4) @ NY Jets (1-6)
The Meadowlands; East Rutherford, NJ 4:05 (CBS)
Favorite Jets by 3
Fast Fact The Bills have only played two road game and have scored a total of ten points
The Jets are fading fast but Eric Mangini is sticking with embattled QB Chad Pennington who looked decent in the loss to the Bengals last week throwing for 3 scores. The Bills have a struggling offense and have been showing themselves incapable of scoring much on the road. The Jets cant really use this as any kind of measuring stick, but will get a needed win
Pick-New York Jets

Titans (3-4) vs. Chargers (3-3)
Game Time and location still TBD due to southern California wildfire status (CBS)
Favorite-Game has been taken off of most odds boards
Fast Fact-The Texans have only been to San Diego once in their brief history and lost 24-3 in their first season.
The Texans saw a furious 29 point 4th quarter all go for naught as they let the Titans off the hook in a painful loss. They get a Chargers team that despite having a bye week to recharge (no pun intended) are on the run due to the wildfires in the San Diego area, but the Chargers are still the better team and LT will get his and then some against the Texans soft defense.
Pick-San Diego

Jaguars (4-2) @ Buccaneers (4-3)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa 4:05 (CBS)
Favorite-Jaguars by 3.5
Fast Fact-This is the Jags first trip to Raymond James Stadium
The Jags are coming off a nasty beat down against the Colts on Monday Night, and have lost David Garrard to an ankle injury, not the best time to face a tough Tampa Bay defense. If the Bucs offense can duplicate the bushel of yards that they racked up against the Lions and turn them into points they could roll. The Jags continued questions at QB make them a risky pick on the road. I call this an upset since the odds makers have the Jags as a questionable road favorite.
Pick-Tampa Bay (Upset of the Week)

Saints (2-4) @ Niners (2-4)
Monster Park, San Francisco 4:15 (FOX)
Favorite Saints by 3
Fast Fact The Saints have won the last three meetings.
The Niners looked a mess in Gotham last week while the Saints won an ugly one against the Falcons. Both teams have the same record but are going in opposite directions. The Saints have rebounded from their horrid 0-4 start while the Niners are fading fast after winning their first two. Alex Smith returns to the starting lineup for the Niners but the feeling is here that he will have to shake off rust and with a withering Saints pass rush led by Charles Grant, Smith will have to be wary especially since Grant will be facing rookie LT Joe Staley. The prospects don’t look good for the Niners.
Pick-New Orleans

Redskins (4-2) @ Patriots (7-0)
Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA 4:15 (FOX)
Favorite- Patriots by 17 (That’s not a misprint)
Fast Fact: The Patriots have not beaten the Redskins since 1972 losing the last six meetings.
I looked twice at that point spread, and why do I keep thinking that this game should and could be closer than expected. The Patriots are looking more and more offensively scary every week, while the Redskins are the first tough team that the Pats have had to face. Could the Pats be caught looking past the ‘Skins to the super matchup with the Colts? I cant do it, it’ll be close but the Pats still are too much to handle
Pick-New England

Monday, October 29

Packers (5-1) @ Broncos (3-3)
Invesco Field @ Mile High 8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite-Broncos by 3
Fast Fact-These teams have not lost at home in their series The Pack are 4-0-1 in Wisconsin, The Broncos are 4-0 in Denver
Breakdown On paper the Pack should roll easy, Brett Favre and the Pack are rested and ready, but going into Denver is never a fun prospect for teams that don’t do it every year. The Pack’s lack of a running game will bite them since they have to lean more on Favre. The Broncos have a much better defense than one thinks, aside from embarrassing losses to the Colts and Chargers the Broncos defense doesn’t give up much. I’m not making this pick because I dislike the Pack, I just don’t think they are as good as their 5-1 record and I don’t think the Broncos are as bad as their 3-3 record
Pick-Denver

Last Week 8-6 (Lock correct, upset incorrect)
Overall 65-38 (6-1 Locks, 3-4 Upsets)

Until Next Post Fellow Sports Fans!