Yes, I'm going to as usual analyze week 15 of the NFL skein. But c'mon did you think that I was going to pass up a chance to sound off about the Mitchell report.
When this process was first announced, I thought: OK, now we're going to get a real investigation. We're going to get some definitive actions, people, places events and hardcore info. I thought that it was going to be something akin to a grand jury investigation where it would have been revealed if players had indeed taken performance enhanching drugs or substances. (For the purposes of space and clarity I will refer to them as PEDS) I saw George Mitchell as someone that had federal power and that he was bringing that power to bear to expose what if any shadows that were lurking concerning Major League Baseball and PEDS
But when this whole thing came out, the media was more focused on the name and allegations. Was there any proof? I saw none. Was there any definitive failed tests? Other than allegations from a former trainer naming certain Yankees this report is a 409 page monstrosity. I saw lots of eye catching allegations and enough spin and name dropping to make any socialites head spin. To me, this is what it seems the bottom line is.
This is the case of a disgraced trainer trying to keep his plump rump out of the sling, he figures if he drops enough names and says enough that it will win him points for his upcoming dealings with the courts.
Then you have Bud Selig who after the report was made public, tried to make himself look like the Great Protector of the game by stating that he will deal with the matter on a case by case basis. This in itself is hogwash. I mean, really Bud what are you gonna do? Suspend players who were named in the report? You are going to convict someone on what is at best circumstancial evidence and hearsay? The players union, the MLBPA is in a corner and has no leg to stand on if Selig wants to impose strict, even Draconian standards for testing for PEDs going forward. But Selig would have a real fight on his hands if he wanted to impose punishments on the players that were named in this report. You have no smoking gun, there are no positive tests. Yeah, yeah rail all you want about how Barry Bonds looked different from when he was a slim slender young man out of college to the behemoth crushing tape measure homeruns and now about how Roger Clemens suddenly remade his career in his 40s. I want proof, I want a failed drug test, I want delivery receipts. I dont want a trainer with an axe to grind dropping every name he can think of.
Then there is the curious case of the aforementioned Roger Clemens. The celebrated fireballer. Texas bred, mean and competitive. The Mitchell report alleges that he was one of the more promeinent users of PEDS and that he began taking them in 1998. One then jumps to the conclusion that Clemens career was jump started. The numbers do back up the timing. Clemens was 6-6 in 1998 before allegedly receiving the PEDS then wenr 14-0 after. I did some research and figured out that I actually saw one of these games. Clemens was outdueled by Brad Radke on a Sunday in August 1998 in front of a packed house at the Metrodome. Looking back on it retrospect, was I seeing a rebirth of a career or the start of a PEDS fueled run? But as I've stated before, there is no way to go back retroactively and determine if PEDS were used much less dole out punishment for them.
And then you have Bonds...Barry Bonds. Make no mistake, I like Clemens. I think he is one of my generations great pitchers and I thought so way before the time that the PEDS use was alleged. I also like Bonds (his game, not his attitude) I think both players had Hall of Fame credentials. My wonder is if that Clemens will get a free pass about this or will he be demonized like Bonds has been for years. Clemens has vocieferously proclaimed his innocence and vows to fight to clear his name. Bonds has done much of the same and still gets railed on it. Does having a clean media portrayal give Clemens a leg up in this matter?
I could like ESPN has, go on and on. But I'll save some of my thoughts on it for after I take another read of the report. (Yes, I read the entire thing)
Lets look at the rest of the matchup for Week 15 in the NFL. I thought that the Texans were only marginally better than the Broncos, I did not expect Mario Williams to go buck-whylin' on the Broncos offense. While the Texans may still catch grief for taking him over the more hyped Reggie Bush or Vince Young. I think that they are quite happy with their pick thank you. This week there are plenty of upsets that could be had, but I think many of the teams that are out of or close to being out of contention are starting to mail it in. The odds that are provided are for comparision and I won't be responsible for you losing your kids Wii if bet on the lines.
Saturday, December 15
Bengals (5-8 ) @ 49ers (3-10)
Monster Park, San Francisco 8:15 (NFL Network)
Favorite Bengals by 8.5
Fast Fact The Niners are last in the NFL in point differential (-141)
Two teams headed nowhere fast meet up in a primetime date. The Niners are going through QB's fast and even dug up Chris Weinke as a backup for rookie Shaun Hill. The Bengals while not the most feared defensive team in the world should tee off on the young QB while Carson Palmer leads a solid Bengals offense. The Bengals usually play well in primetime dates and this should be no exception. Why do I have the feeling that Chad Johnson will use this venue to act crazy after reaching the end zone?
Pick-Cincinnati
Sunday, December 16
Cardinals (6-7) @ Saints (6-7)
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Saints by 3.5
Fast Fact According to NFL.com, the Saints are 27-7 when QB Drew Brees has a QB rating of 95 or better
The Cards showed why they are not a team to be taken real serious as they got their collective heads kicked in at Seattle. The Saints are still barely breathing in the playoff race and despite the loss of Reggie Bush have a fairly potent offense. The Cards don't play well on the road and the Saints need the win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. Despite similar records these teams are going in opposite directions.
Pick-New Orleans
Falcons (3-10) @ Buccaneers (8-5)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Buccaneers by 13.5
Fast Fact The Falcons have won 2 of the last 3 meetings
I really want the Falcons to play well under interim coach Emmitt Thomas, so that the long time assistant can get a shot at a full time coaching gig. The problem is that they are facing a Bucs squad coming off a rather embarrassing loss to the Texans and they want to lock up a divisional title as quickly as possible. The Bucs have more on the ball and this won't be pretty at all.
Pick-Tampa Bay
Ravens (4-9) @ Dolphins (0-13)
Dolphins Stadium, Miami 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Ravens by 3
Fast Fact The Dolphins lead the series 4-1
Some pundits think that the way the Ravens pretty much laid down last Sunday Night against the Colts may be indicative of how they will play the rest of the season and the woeful Fins may be the benefactor of this poor play and steal a win. Don't beleive the hype.
Pick-Baltimore
Bills (7-6) @ Browns (8-5)
Browns Stadium, Cleveland 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Browns by 5.5
Fast Fact Browns TE Kellen Winslow is 57 yards shy of reaching 1000 receiving yards for the first time.
When the schedule was drawn up no one suspected that this would be a battle for a playoff spot. Both teams are mystifyingly good. The Browns keep winning in spite of themselves and the Bills have made winning ugly a way of life. Either way, both teams are winning with strong running games. I get the feeling that despite their tendency to wander off in games the Browns are at least playoff material and are tough to beat at home where they are 5-1. Look for Jamal Lewis to get established and make a big contribution. This will be a tightly played game, but the Browns will pull it out.
Pick-Cleveland
Packers (11-2) @ Rams (3-10)
Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Packers by 8.5
Fast Fact Packers WR Donald Driver has caught a pass in 93 consective games
The Pack bounced back from their loss to the Pokes to whip the Raiders while the Rams are already looking for the exit door for the season. The Pack is simply the better team and they know it, better still the Rams know it too.
Pick-Green Bay
Jaguars (9-4) @ Steelers (9-4)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Steelers by 3.5
Fast Fact The Steelers have won 3 of the last 5 but the Jags lead the alltime series 10-8
Another sneaky good matchup, both teams are likely playoff bound and could very well meet again in the playoffs. The Steelers are trying to fight the knock on them that they can't beat an elite team, a moniker that has been dogging the Jags as well. This will be a good old fashioned blood and guts game, won in the trenches. If the Steelers don't have the services of Troy Palomalu, they could be vulnerable. I like the Jags multi-pronged running game to wear the Steelers defense down. It’ll be a tight well played game.
Pick-Jacksonville (Upset of the Week)
NY Jets (3-10) @ New England (13-0)
Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Patriots by 24.5
Fast Fact Jets RB Thomas Jones needs 56 rushing yards to be the first Jet RB since Curtis Martin in 2004 to reach 1000
Spygate bowl II looks to be even uglier than the first mismatch in September. Hoodie Man Belichick is finding all the ways that he can to motivate his squad. But lets be real the Pats are on a different level and I'm sure Roger Goddell is on standby to keep the Pats from dropping 80 on the Jets. You snicker, I wouldn't put it past Hoodie man to leave his starters in well into the 4th up by 6 touchdowns. Ignore the honks and wonks that say that the impending Nor'Easter will slow the Pats down to the point that the Jets could keep it close or spring an upset, this will get ugly and that very quick
Pick-New England (Lock of the Week)
Seattle (9-4) @ Carolina (5-8 )
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Seahawks by 7.5
Fast Fact These teams have split their two regular season meetings
The Seahawks are gearing up for another playoff run while the Panthers are gearing up to go home. Having to make a long road trip usually bodes bad for the Seahawks but the Panthers are horrible at home and are just about as big a hot mess as you can create. The Seahawks are focused the Panthers are not and this is a pretty easy call
Pick-Seattle
Titans (7-6) @ Chiefs (4-9)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Titans by 3.5
Fast Fact Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez has caught a pass in 112 consective games, 2nd only Hall of Famer Ozzie Newsome (150)
The Titans had best be careful here as this game has trap written all over it. No one can be sure which Titans squad will show up and after blowing a 14 point lead against the Chargers last week you cant be sure if they haven't mailed it in.. The Chiefs have no real sparkplug on offense and the Titans have a decent defense. The Titans will play desperate and get this one.
Pick-Tennessee
Colts (11-2) @ Raiders (4-9)
Network Associates Coliseum, Oakland 4:05 (CBS)
Favorite Colts by 10
Fast Fact Since the Colts drafted Peyton Manning in 1998, the Raiders have started 11 different quarterbacks
Lost in all the talk about the Pats pursuit of a 16-0 regular seasonm is that the Colts despite a nasty rash of injuries are still playing pretty good football. The Raiders have shown some improvement but you are really sippin that stuff if you think that they are ready to stay with these guys.
Pick-Indianapolis
Detroit (6-7) @ San Diego (8-5)
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego 4:15 (FOX)
Favorite Chargers by 6
Fast Fact The Chargers have won the last five meetings between these teams after losing the first three.
The Chargers took a couple ill-timed personnel hits as Shawne Merriam is hurting and road paving fullback Lorenzo Neal is out. They are fortunate to catch a slumping Lions team that cant close out games. LT is still good enough to get his and I dont think that Lions are good enough to stop him.
Pick-San Diego
Eagles (5-8 ) @ Cowboys (12-1)
Texas Stadium; Irving, TX 4:15 (FOX)
Favorite Cowboys by 10.5
Fast Fact The Eagles have won 2 of the last 3 meetings but trail the overall series 52-41
The Pokes are getting close to really uncharted waters as their 12-1 start has them atop the NFC and closing in on home field advantage in the playoffs. They need every win to stay ahead of the lurking Pack. The Eagles have slumped badly after getting to .500 and are looking more and more like they are finished. The Pokes are in no mood to be accomadating and will roll.
Pick-Dallas
Redskins (6-7) @ NY Giants (9-4)
Giants Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ 8:15 (NBC)
Favorite Giants by 4.5
Fast Fact The Giants lead the series 85-60-4
The schedule makers got this Sunday Night matchup right as the G-Men are closing in on locking down a wild card spot, the Skins are hanging on to their own playoff hopes by a razor thin margin. While Eli Manning will never play games with the flash and style of his older brother he is getting the job done. Unless the Skins establish a solid running game, a tall order given the G-Men's solid play. Add that the Skins do not play well on the road and Tom Coughlin's seat is only warm cause he's sitting in it solid.
Pick-New York Giants
Monday, December 17
Bears (5-8 ) @ Vikings (7-6)
H.H.H. Metrodome, Minneapolis 8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite Vikings by 10
Fast Fact Vikes QB Tavaris Jackson is 7-2 as a starter this year.
The Vikes won in spite of getting nothing from Adrian Peterson. The Bears will have all sorts of trouble dealing with the Vikes multi-faceted run game and their offense is not strong enough to match with the Vikes suddenly solid defense. Combine this with a rowdy Metrodome crowd and the Bears get sent to hibernation.
Pick-Minnesota
Last Week: 13-3 (Lock correct, Upset Incorrect)
Overall: 130-78 (12-2 Locks, 3-11 Upsets)
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