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2007 NCAA Spec SheetPicks as of 2/27
Its moving day for a lot of teams in this weeks spec sheet. A lot of teams handled their business and solidified their tourney status.
The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Duke, Va. Tech, Virginia, Bost. College, Maryland
Good Shape-
Needs Help- Florida St.
The Terrapins win over UNC makes them a spot on lock, the Cavs and Hokies have had their collective foot on the gas for a while. The Noles have to win out and go deep in the ACC tourney to get any consideration.
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament: March 8-11 St. Pete Times Forum, St. Petersburg, Florida
Atlantic Ten
Good Shape Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier is charging hard to a tourney slot and their record might even get them an at-large should something bad happen in Atlantic City. But the Muskies must finish the regular season strong.
Atlantic Ten Confernce Tournament: March 7-10-Boardwalk Hall Atlantic City
Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville
Good Shape- Syracuse
Needs Help- Villanova
Notre Dame earned its lock after rallying to beat Marquette. Louisville closed the deal and even though I’m making them a lock I’m not sold yet but I’ll give it to them.I know they are 3rd in the Big East, but. Syracuse is still very much in the picture, their win over Georgetown puts them in much better shape. The same cant be said for Providence who’s loss to the Orange put them is serious trouble. Nova needs to win out and the Mountaineers just don’t have the numbers to keep their lock. They’re still in good shape, but I’ll like them better if they get a win or two in NYC. Providence is done with their tough loss to the ‘Cuse.
Big East Conference Tournament: March 7-10-Madison Square Garden New York City
Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State
Good Shape-Indiana , Illinois
Work To Do- Michigan, Purdue
Illinois has moved into the GS category with its 6 wins in their last 7. The only thing that got settled in Columbus Sunday was that the Bucks get the #1 seed in the Big 10 tourney in Chicago and unless they take an unlikely pratfall in the Big 10 quarters, should be a regional #1 as well. Michigan State has locked themselves in with a gritty stretch drive that included wins over locked Wisconsin and an all but locked Indiana. I’ve held them out saying that they had to prove that they were tourney worthy and they are.
Big Ten Conference Tourney: March 8-11 United Center, Chicago
Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M , Texas
Good Shape- Kansas State
Needs Help- Texas Tech
Tech is back on the list and Oklahoma State is off. The Pokes shocking slide from Lock to out is complete. This is a far cry from the team that beat in Texas in 3OT and started 15-1. This same team has went 4-8 since that start. Mizzou is out after their loss to Nebraska. Texas has all but locked up their spot and Kansas State needs to keep winning. I cant see them getting locked out with 23 wins. Tech needs to win out and get 1 or two wins in the Big 12 tourney.
Big 12 Conference Tournament: Mar 8-11 Ford Center, Oklahoma City
Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State, Loyola
Butler won and should be focused for the Horizon tourney. It’ll be interesting to see how the Ramblers and Raiders do. All of these teams need to get to the final to stay in the hunt…three teams, two spots. Call it March Math; someone will get on the wrong side of this equation.
Horizon Conference Tournanment: Feb 27th First Round Campus Sites (First Round) Mar 2-3 Nutter Center, Dayton (Quarterfinals and Semi-Finals) Finals Mar 6th Highest Seed Campus
Missouri Valley
Lock- Southern Illinois,
Good Shape- Missouri State, Creighton
Needs Help Bradley
Now the fun really begins as the “Arch” Madness starts in St. Louis later this week. The Salukis are safe, the Bears and Bluejays need only avoid first round defeats and they should be good to go. Creighton got a badly needed win against Wichita State which should steady them for any kind of tourney run.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament: Mar 1-4 Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Mountain West
Locks-Air Force, Brigham Young
Good Shape-UNLV
Needs Help-San Diego State
On the real, is Air Force in trouble? Their sudden swoon has dropped them to third in the Mountain West and their shocking loss to cellar dweller TCU has made me rethink their lock status. The so-called power conferences are happy, as a swoon by one of the contenders here would free up an at-large for an Iowa, Clemson or other middling power conference team. The Aztecs are forcing their way into the tourney with attention grabbing wins.
Mountain West Conference Tournament: Mar 6-10 Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas
Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Good Shape- Arizona
Needs Help-Stanford, Washington
SC rebounded nicely and has locked up their tourney chances. Arizona struggled with sad sack Arizona State and the jury still is out on them. Washington is out and Stanford may need to win out to still be in consideration.
Pacific Ten Tournament: March 7-10 Staples Center, Los Angeles
Southeastern
Lock-Florida,Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Good Shape- UK
Work to do- Georgia, Ole Miss
Wildcat nation is apoplectic after another loss to Vandy. The Commodores are just about home free as only a swan dive kills their tourney chances and even then their overall profile is too good to leave out. Georgia and Ole Miss pretty much need to get to the SEC title game if not outright win it to get a look.
Southeastern Conference Tournament: March 8-11 Georgia Dome, Atlanta
West Coast
Good Shape-Gonzaga, Santa Clara
It’s a photo finish for the regular season title. You could very well see the Bulldogs and Broncos in a winner take all WCC title game.
West Coast Conference Tournament: March 2-5 Chiles Center, Portland Ore.
1 Bid major conferences
Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers are playing for a #1 seed, playing your conference tourney in your own arena is almost unfair
Conference USA Championships: Mar 7-10 FedEx Forum, Memphis
Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico St
The Wolfpack is the only lock no matter what happens in Las Cruces. New Mexico States chances fell into the win it to get in it class when they lost to Fresno State.
Western Athletic Conference Tournament Mar 6-10 Las Cruces, New Mexico
And remember the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West , Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?
Next Update: Mar 2nd
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Friday, February 23, 2007
Spec Sheet 2/23
2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/23
I love this time of the year, the teams that you think are cruising get blindsided and the teams that you leave for dead rise from their supposed ashes and blast a favored team. The intensity of the games are ratcheting up a few notches and teams that are desperate for a win are plentiful. Christmas is supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year, but for the basketball enthusiast like us, this is the closest thing to Christmas before December.
The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Duke
Good Shape-Va. Tech, Virginia, Bost. College, Maryland
Needs Help- Florida St.
BC has started that fall apart thing too. Maryland is doing everything it needs to do to get and keep the selection committee’s attention with their timely win streak. Va Tech is getting real close to a lock, their resume is too good to ignore. Virginia lost a very winnable game at Miami, but are still pretty safe for now. Clemson is all but done with their 2-8 slide after a 17-0 start, they’ll need to get to ACC title game to get anymore consideration
Key Game: UNC at Maryland 2/25 5:30- Terrapins could turn heads with a win over ACC leader.
Atlantic Ten
Good Shape Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier is now in the A-10 drivers seat after their sound whipping of Rhode Island. Nothing is locked up, but the Muskies are in full control of their tourney destiny now.
Key Game: Xavier at Dayton 2/24 6:00- Flyers aren’t tourney material but they always give the Muskies a hard time at UD Arena, a place well known for loud crazy fans.
Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Good Shape- Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs Help-Syracuse, Providence, Villanova
Louisville is starting to look more and more like a lock as is Notre Dame. Villanova is still in limbo despite great numbers (RPI 18/SOS 4) Providence may need to win out and Syracuse (RPI 64/SOS 57) has no real marquee wins to offset their so-so numbers. All the teams that are mentioned here have 20 wins except for West Virginia at 19. Could the Big East send eight teams again like last year???
Key Game: Syracuse at Providence 2/24 12:00- Two bubble teams in a possible knockout game both need the win to strengthen their tourney resume.
Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Good Shape-Indiana, Michigan State
Work To Do- Illinois, Michigan, PurdueOkay I will admit it, Michigan State has really opened eyes with its throttling of the Badgers Tuesday, and that makes them a lot safer. Purdue despite its bad loss to Iowa needs to just win these upcoming winnables and they will move to good shape too. Illinois got a needed win while Michigan may have seen their chances evaporate. Indiana keeps solidifying their tourney resume and unlike years past may not need to carp and whine to get an invite. I’ll ignore the squawking that is coming from Iowa City, the Hawkeyes need to get real deep in the Big 10 tourney to get back into the conversation.
Key Game: Wisconsin at Ohio State 2/25 4:00- Both teams are locks, but its #1 vs #2 and could be a Big Ten Championship preview game
Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M,
Good Shape- Kansas State, Texas
Needs Help- Oklahoma State, Missouri
Tech got slaughtered in Austin and that’s the last thing a bubble team like that needs. They and Oklahoma who got blitzed by Mizzou are off the list. The Tigers are now on the list but need to keep winning into the Big 12 tourney to have a serious shot. Oklahoma State has gone from a lock to just about finished, and have slid right out of contention.
Key Game: Oklahoma State at Texas Tech 2/24 12:00-Could be a knockout game, both teams desperately need the win
Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State, Loyola
Wright State now has the #1 seed in the Horizon Tourney in spite of taking a bad loss to Youngstown State, Loyola has to be get notice after its stunning win in Hinkle over the suddenly reeling Bulldogs. I still think Butler is a lock to get in, but the Ramblers and Raiders are fast learning the combination.
Key Game: Detroit at Butler 2/24 2:00-Bulldogs need big win to stave off bubble talk.
Missouri Valley
Lock- Southern Illinois,
Good Shape- Missouri State, Creighton
Needs Help Bradley
This conference is too good for its own good. Valley teams keep beating each other and sullying their cases for outright inclusion in tourney talk. Creighton and Bradley are both picking the absolute wrong time to stumble. The Blue Jays have dropped to GS and Bradley needs now to win and maybe get to the Valley final. Mo. State has an inside track now, with solid numbers and a coveted signature win over Wisconsin they are in good shape.
Key Game: Wichita State at Creighton 2/24 5:05-Last chance Blue Jays get to stop their skid before MVC tourney in St. Louis
Mountain West
Locks-Air Force, Brigham Young
Good Shape-UNLV
Needs Help-San Diego State
The minute you write off SDSU and UNLV, they both bounce back. UNLV has been winning critical games and their beating of Air Force makes them a boatload of trouble for other teams looking for an at-large. Air Force and BYU are still safe, but the Falcons are jeopardizing a good seed with this sudden swoon.
Key Game: BYU at San Diego St 2/24 6:00- Aztecs could get a signature win with a victory over solid Cougar squad.
Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St
Good Shape, Arizona, SC
Needs Help-Stanford, Washington
Arizona has the ugliest resume of any Pac-10 team, they have gotten beatdowns from both LA schools and there’s that massacre that UNC gave them at home. But the Wildcats are still in good shape. SC needs to rebound from the stinging loss to Arizona State. Oregon was getting close to slipping down a level but after beating Washington State are now more than likely safe.
Key Game: Stanford at UCLA 2/24 6:00- If Stanford wants to have any legit shot at a tourney invite, upsetting the Bruins is a must.
Southeastern
Lock-Florida,
Good Shape-Alabama, Tennessee, UK, Vanderbilt
Work to do- Georgia, Ole Miss
UK was staring hard at a spot on the bubble after falling behind a Big-Baby less LSU but rallied nicely. They are not back in lock status, but stay in good shape because of their pristine numbers (8 RPI/ 2). Tennessee’s numbers are beautiful but their inconsistent play keeps them in the good shape category. I still think Bama and Vandy are still in good shape despite their losses as long as it doesn’t turn into a prolonged losing streak
Key Game: Kentucky at Vanderbilt 2/25 2:00 Who’da thunk that the Wildcats would be the bubble team struggling for a big win.
West Coast
Good Shape-Gonzaga, Santa Clara
Simply put, this may be a 1-bid conference. Both teams are good, but not good enough for both to get in.
Key Game: Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount 2/24 10:30-Broncos try to keep WCC lead and face last team to hand them a loss.
1 Bid major conferences
Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers won a huge non-conference game in a hostile environment and might have locked a #2 seed up in the process.
Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico StNevada has nothing to worry about. New Mexico State is still breathing, albeit barely. Their win against Ohio keeps them looking to the WAC tourney at home in Las Cruces. If they get to the final and lose a close one to Nevada…who knows?
And remember the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West , Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?
Next Update: Feb 26th
Picks as of 2/23
I love this time of the year, the teams that you think are cruising get blindsided and the teams that you leave for dead rise from their supposed ashes and blast a favored team. The intensity of the games are ratcheting up a few notches and teams that are desperate for a win are plentiful. Christmas is supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year, but for the basketball enthusiast like us, this is the closest thing to Christmas before December.
The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Duke
Good Shape-Va. Tech, Virginia, Bost. College, Maryland
Needs Help- Florida St.
BC has started that fall apart thing too. Maryland is doing everything it needs to do to get and keep the selection committee’s attention with their timely win streak. Va Tech is getting real close to a lock, their resume is too good to ignore. Virginia lost a very winnable game at Miami, but are still pretty safe for now. Clemson is all but done with their 2-8 slide after a 17-0 start, they’ll need to get to ACC title game to get anymore consideration
Key Game: UNC at Maryland 2/25 5:30- Terrapins could turn heads with a win over ACC leader.
Atlantic Ten
Good Shape Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier is now in the A-10 drivers seat after their sound whipping of Rhode Island. Nothing is locked up, but the Muskies are in full control of their tourney destiny now.
Key Game: Xavier at Dayton 2/24 6:00- Flyers aren’t tourney material but they always give the Muskies a hard time at UD Arena, a place well known for loud crazy fans.
Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Good Shape- Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs Help-Syracuse, Providence, Villanova
Louisville is starting to look more and more like a lock as is Notre Dame. Villanova is still in limbo despite great numbers (RPI 18/SOS 4) Providence may need to win out and Syracuse (RPI 64/SOS 57) has no real marquee wins to offset their so-so numbers. All the teams that are mentioned here have 20 wins except for West Virginia at 19. Could the Big East send eight teams again like last year???
Key Game: Syracuse at Providence 2/24 12:00- Two bubble teams in a possible knockout game both need the win to strengthen their tourney resume.
Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Good Shape-Indiana, Michigan State
Work To Do- Illinois, Michigan, PurdueOkay I will admit it, Michigan State has really opened eyes with its throttling of the Badgers Tuesday, and that makes them a lot safer. Purdue despite its bad loss to Iowa needs to just win these upcoming winnables and they will move to good shape too. Illinois got a needed win while Michigan may have seen their chances evaporate. Indiana keeps solidifying their tourney resume and unlike years past may not need to carp and whine to get an invite. I’ll ignore the squawking that is coming from Iowa City, the Hawkeyes need to get real deep in the Big 10 tourney to get back into the conversation.
Key Game: Wisconsin at Ohio State 2/25 4:00- Both teams are locks, but its #1 vs #2 and could be a Big Ten Championship preview game
Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M,
Good Shape- Kansas State, Texas
Needs Help- Oklahoma State, Missouri
Tech got slaughtered in Austin and that’s the last thing a bubble team like that needs. They and Oklahoma who got blitzed by Mizzou are off the list. The Tigers are now on the list but need to keep winning into the Big 12 tourney to have a serious shot. Oklahoma State has gone from a lock to just about finished, and have slid right out of contention.
Key Game: Oklahoma State at Texas Tech 2/24 12:00-Could be a knockout game, both teams desperately need the win
Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State, Loyola
Wright State now has the #1 seed in the Horizon Tourney in spite of taking a bad loss to Youngstown State, Loyola has to be get notice after its stunning win in Hinkle over the suddenly reeling Bulldogs. I still think Butler is a lock to get in, but the Ramblers and Raiders are fast learning the combination.
Key Game: Detroit at Butler 2/24 2:00-Bulldogs need big win to stave off bubble talk.
Missouri Valley
Lock- Southern Illinois,
Good Shape- Missouri State, Creighton
Needs Help Bradley
This conference is too good for its own good. Valley teams keep beating each other and sullying their cases for outright inclusion in tourney talk. Creighton and Bradley are both picking the absolute wrong time to stumble. The Blue Jays have dropped to GS and Bradley needs now to win and maybe get to the Valley final. Mo. State has an inside track now, with solid numbers and a coveted signature win over Wisconsin they are in good shape.
Key Game: Wichita State at Creighton 2/24 5:05-Last chance Blue Jays get to stop their skid before MVC tourney in St. Louis
Mountain West
Locks-Air Force, Brigham Young
Good Shape-UNLV
Needs Help-San Diego State
The minute you write off SDSU and UNLV, they both bounce back. UNLV has been winning critical games and their beating of Air Force makes them a boatload of trouble for other teams looking for an at-large. Air Force and BYU are still safe, but the Falcons are jeopardizing a good seed with this sudden swoon.
Key Game: BYU at San Diego St 2/24 6:00- Aztecs could get a signature win with a victory over solid Cougar squad.
Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St
Good Shape, Arizona, SC
Needs Help-Stanford, Washington
Arizona has the ugliest resume of any Pac-10 team, they have gotten beatdowns from both LA schools and there’s that massacre that UNC gave them at home. But the Wildcats are still in good shape. SC needs to rebound from the stinging loss to Arizona State. Oregon was getting close to slipping down a level but after beating Washington State are now more than likely safe.
Key Game: Stanford at UCLA 2/24 6:00- If Stanford wants to have any legit shot at a tourney invite, upsetting the Bruins is a must.
Southeastern
Lock-Florida,
Good Shape-Alabama, Tennessee, UK, Vanderbilt
Work to do- Georgia, Ole Miss
UK was staring hard at a spot on the bubble after falling behind a Big-Baby less LSU but rallied nicely. They are not back in lock status, but stay in good shape because of their pristine numbers (8 RPI/ 2). Tennessee’s numbers are beautiful but their inconsistent play keeps them in the good shape category. I still think Bama and Vandy are still in good shape despite their losses as long as it doesn’t turn into a prolonged losing streak
Key Game: Kentucky at Vanderbilt 2/25 2:00 Who’da thunk that the Wildcats would be the bubble team struggling for a big win.
West Coast
Good Shape-Gonzaga, Santa Clara
Simply put, this may be a 1-bid conference. Both teams are good, but not good enough for both to get in.
Key Game: Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount 2/24 10:30-Broncos try to keep WCC lead and face last team to hand them a loss.
1 Bid major conferences
Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers won a huge non-conference game in a hostile environment and might have locked a #2 seed up in the process.
Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico StNevada has nothing to worry about. New Mexico State is still breathing, albeit barely. Their win against Ohio keeps them looking to the WAC tourney at home in Las Cruces. If they get to the final and lose a close one to Nevada…who knows?
And remember the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West , Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?
Next Update: Feb 26th
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Spec Sheet 2/20
2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/20
20 is an important number today for a lot of reasons. First there are 20 days till selection Sunday, also 20 seems to be a demarcation line for teams that dream of a tourney bid and are not bona fide locks. Today, the 20th of Feburary is Fat Tuesday this year, which is the end of the line for Mardi Gras but means the beginning of a real scramble for slots in the tourney. As promised the team designations change to Lock, Good Shape and Needs help. If the team is in the top 15 only a losing streak to and through a conference tourney with major blowout losses, will ruin a bid. Good Shape means while the team is not a spot on lock, they only need to stay the course to earn a bid. Those in the need help category are those that need to get and stay on a win streak or get an eye-catching win.
The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Bost. College, Duke
Good Shape-Va. Tech,Virginia
Needs Help- Maryland, Clemson, Florida St.At this point, only North Carolina and BC are solid locks. I’m not truly sold on Duke but you don’t think that the powers that be will keep the Dukies out now, will they? Va. Tech now knows what it feels to be the hunted and became the latest NC State victim. I’m not ready to give the Cavs a lock but they are looking very good. Clemson’s 17-0 start is a distant memory and their schedule gets no easier. The Tigers may need to win out and 20 wins here may not even be enough. Florida State are for all intents and purposes, finished.
Key Game: Clemson at Duke 2/22 9:00- If the Tigers even want to start thinking about the NCAA tourney they must win in Cameron…good luck
Atlantic Ten
Good Shape Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
UMass still is very much in the picture after a tough road win at Dayton. The Muskies keep doing what they have to do to win, but the showdown with Rhode Island looms. Still, nothing will be very clear until the A-10 tourney.
Key Game: Rhode Island at Xavier 2/21-7:00 A huge showdown in the A-10 Muskies and Rams are grappling for best position in the A-10 with the winner avoiding a dangerous UMass until the A-10 tourney final.
Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Good Shape- Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs Help-Syracuse, Providence, Villanova
All the teams in Lock status helped their cause with solid wins, except for Marquette whose sudden losing streak is starting to hurt. I still have the Mountaineers in, though their numbers (47 RPI 115 SOS are weak) they have solid wins over UCLA and NC State to offset a bad OT loss to Cincy. Notre Dame hit the magical 20 win mark and barring a 1st round Big East Tourney flameout should be okay though their numbers (47 RPI 125 SOS) still are a big concern. Louisville is making a strong case for itself and are close to 20 themselves. Syracuse, Providence and ‘Nova are all in that dangerous grey area.
Key Game: DePaul at Notre Dame 2/20 7:00- If DePaul wants to force its way into tourney conversation a win over the Irish to complete a regular season sweep would be a good start.
Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Good Shape-Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, PurdueIndiana is getting that February swoon going again, with yet another bad loss. (Maybe it wasn’t just Mike Davis) Right now only Wisconsin and Ohio State are for sure. Illinois has done little to impress me, but they like Michigan and Michigan State are getting close to 20 wins but have all sorts of awful marks on their tourney resume’. Iowa??? Are they really still in the conversation after getting hammered in East Lansing? They aren’t but Purdue is, they have a doable schedule and if they can run the table they may steal a bid.
Key Game: Wisconsin at Michigan St. 2/20 7:00- If Spartans can knock off hi-flying Badgers they’ll look a lot more tourney worthy
Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M,
Good Shape- Kansas State, Texas
Needs Help- Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Kansas was having no part of the Nebraska spoiler party. Their frightening 53 point blitz of the Huskers served notice of that. A&M won ugly and has no real worries. K-State and Texas need only to keep winning to get to Lock status. Don't read too much into the Wildcats loss to Kansas on Monday, they are still in good shape for a tourney run. Oklahoma State went from In to Out in a matter of days and the bad loss to Missouri at home hurts. Tech is still afloat, a win over the Longhorns would look really good. Oklahoma is all but finished and given that they still have Texas, Kansas and Kansas State still on their docket, they have a rough road ahead.
Key Game: Texas Tech at Texas 2/20 9:00- Red Raiders need to keep winning to get off crowded bubble. A win in Austin would turn some heads.
Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State, Loyola
I caught a thrilling game between Butler and SIU Saturday and despite the loss, Butler is still the definition of safe. Wright State may need to run the table to get a bid. Keep your eye on Loyola coming on with a late 6 game win streak. The Ramblers could be the wild-card in all of this.
Key Game: Loyola at Butler 2/22 9:00-Bulldogs need to shake late season slide and Ramblers could use a signature win as springboard to Horizon tourney
Missouri Valley
Locks- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Needs Help- Bradley, Missouri State
SIU and Creighton are going, period. Bradley is looking real good after win over VCU and their numbers (18/9 overall/league 29 RPI 18 SOS) are getting too good to ignore Mo. State blew a chance to improve itself with a loss to Winthrop and may have to win out to the MVC finals now to stay out of bubble talk.
Key Game: Northern Iowa at Bradley 2/20 -8:00- UNI has fallen off the Spec Sheet but that makes them no less dangerous to a Bradley team that need to keep winning
Mountain West
Locks-Air Force, Brigham YoungGood Shape-UNLV
Needs Help-San Diego State
San Diego State hurt itself with a bad loss to lowly Wyoming, while the Runnin’ Rebels won a crucial game in Utah. Air Force and Brigham Young are killing time till an inevitable showdown in the MWC tourney.
Key Game: Air Force at UNLV 2/20 10:00 Rebs could make their tourney case stronger by beating MWC ranked squad.
Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St
Good Shape- Arizona, USC
Needs Help-Stanford, Washington
SC picked a bad time for an ugly loss. Losing to sad sack Arizona State not only is a momentum killer, but also feeds talk that the Trojans aren’t tourney worthy. I don’t believe that myself, but they’ll need to bounce back quick. Oregon is fading fast, but I still have them locked in…for now. But if they keep their middling ways up they might have to beg. Arizona is good shape, but they need to keep winning. I’m suspicious of trusting a young Stanford team any further than a game by game basis. Washington needs to get deep into the Pac-10 tourney now
Key Game: Washington St at Oregon 2/22- 9:00 Ducks have been looking weak lately, a win over the Cougars keeps any bubble talk away.
Southeastern
Lock-Florida,
Good Shape-Alabama, Tennessee, UK, Vanderbilt
Needs Help-Georgia, Ole Miss
UK is trying its best to give away its status as they have gone on a dangerous slide. Vanderbilt is in better shape now, have multiple huge wins and thrashing the streaking Lock status Gators is just the kind resume win the committee can’t ignore. Barring an epic collapse they are in very good shape. Bama is still looking good. Tennessee needs a couple more wins to get to lock status though their numbers are solid . Ole Miss fell hard and I can’t take Georgia seriously as a tourney team
Key Games: LSU at Kentucky 2/20 7:00- UK needs to stop the bleeding and shake bubble talk in the bluegrass, a win over a struggling LSU would do.
Alabama at Tennessee 2/21- 8:00 This game is more for a bid in the big dance than the SEC. Both could use this game as signature win.
West Coast
Good Shape-Gonzaga, Santa Clara
Gonzaga lost a heartbreaker to Memphis in OT, and a chance to shake bubble talk. They may need to get deep in the WCC tourney, if not win it outright now to get a dance ticket
Key Game: Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount 2/24 10:30-Broncos try to keep WCC lead and face last team to hand them a loss.
1 Bid major conferences
Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers won a huge non-conference game in a hostile environment and might have locked a #2 seed up in the process.
Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico St
Nevada has nothing to worry about. New Mexico State is still breathing, albeit barely. Their win against Ohio keeps them looking to the WAC tourney at home in Las Cruces. If they get to the final and lose a close one to Nevada…who knows?
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel-Road warrior Dragons have won at Syracuse and Villanova
Old Dominion-Win against Toledo improved their overall profile
Appalachian State They have beaten Virginia and Vanderbilt, a team that no one wants to face.
Virginia Commonwealth 22 wins might offset mediocre numbers (RPI 57 SOS 127)
Hofstra-Showdown with VCU looms
Winthrop-Unbeaten in Big South and beating Mo. State helps but oooh those numbers (72 RPI 269 SOS) are painful
And remember the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?
Next Update: Feb 23rd
Picks as of 2/20
20 is an important number today for a lot of reasons. First there are 20 days till selection Sunday, also 20 seems to be a demarcation line for teams that dream of a tourney bid and are not bona fide locks. Today, the 20th of Feburary is Fat Tuesday this year, which is the end of the line for Mardi Gras but means the beginning of a real scramble for slots in the tourney. As promised the team designations change to Lock, Good Shape and Needs help. If the team is in the top 15 only a losing streak to and through a conference tourney with major blowout losses, will ruin a bid. Good Shape means while the team is not a spot on lock, they only need to stay the course to earn a bid. Those in the need help category are those that need to get and stay on a win streak or get an eye-catching win.
The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Locks- North Carolina, Bost. College, Duke
Good Shape-Va. Tech,Virginia
Needs Help- Maryland, Clemson, Florida St.At this point, only North Carolina and BC are solid locks. I’m not truly sold on Duke but you don’t think that the powers that be will keep the Dukies out now, will they? Va. Tech now knows what it feels to be the hunted and became the latest NC State victim. I’m not ready to give the Cavs a lock but they are looking very good. Clemson’s 17-0 start is a distant memory and their schedule gets no easier. The Tigers may need to win out and 20 wins here may not even be enough. Florida State are for all intents and purposes, finished.
Key Game: Clemson at Duke 2/22 9:00- If the Tigers even want to start thinking about the NCAA tourney they must win in Cameron…good luck
Atlantic Ten
Good Shape Xavier
Needs Help Rhode Island, UMass
UMass still is very much in the picture after a tough road win at Dayton. The Muskies keep doing what they have to do to win, but the showdown with Rhode Island looms. Still, nothing will be very clear until the A-10 tourney.
Key Game: Rhode Island at Xavier 2/21-7:00 A huge showdown in the A-10 Muskies and Rams are grappling for best position in the A-10 with the winner avoiding a dangerous UMass until the A-10 tourney final.
Big East
Locks- Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Good Shape- Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs Help-Syracuse, Providence, Villanova
All the teams in Lock status helped their cause with solid wins, except for Marquette whose sudden losing streak is starting to hurt. I still have the Mountaineers in, though their numbers (47 RPI 115 SOS are weak) they have solid wins over UCLA and NC State to offset a bad OT loss to Cincy. Notre Dame hit the magical 20 win mark and barring a 1st round Big East Tourney flameout should be okay though their numbers (47 RPI 125 SOS) still are a big concern. Louisville is making a strong case for itself and are close to 20 themselves. Syracuse, Providence and ‘Nova are all in that dangerous grey area.
Key Game: DePaul at Notre Dame 2/20 7:00- If DePaul wants to force its way into tourney conversation a win over the Irish to complete a regular season sweep would be a good start.
Big Ten
Locks-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Good Shape-Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, PurdueIndiana is getting that February swoon going again, with yet another bad loss. (Maybe it wasn’t just Mike Davis) Right now only Wisconsin and Ohio State are for sure. Illinois has done little to impress me, but they like Michigan and Michigan State are getting close to 20 wins but have all sorts of awful marks on their tourney resume’. Iowa??? Are they really still in the conversation after getting hammered in East Lansing? They aren’t but Purdue is, they have a doable schedule and if they can run the table they may steal a bid.
Key Game: Wisconsin at Michigan St. 2/20 7:00- If Spartans can knock off hi-flying Badgers they’ll look a lot more tourney worthy
Big 12
Locks-Kansas, Texas A&M,
Good Shape- Kansas State, Texas
Needs Help- Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Kansas was having no part of the Nebraska spoiler party. Their frightening 53 point blitz of the Huskers served notice of that. A&M won ugly and has no real worries. K-State and Texas need only to keep winning to get to Lock status. Don't read too much into the Wildcats loss to Kansas on Monday, they are still in good shape for a tourney run. Oklahoma State went from In to Out in a matter of days and the bad loss to Missouri at home hurts. Tech is still afloat, a win over the Longhorns would look really good. Oklahoma is all but finished and given that they still have Texas, Kansas and Kansas State still on their docket, they have a rough road ahead.
Key Game: Texas Tech at Texas 2/20 9:00- Red Raiders need to keep winning to get off crowded bubble. A win in Austin would turn some heads.
Horizon
Lock-Butler
Needs Help-Wright State, Loyola
I caught a thrilling game between Butler and SIU Saturday and despite the loss, Butler is still the definition of safe. Wright State may need to run the table to get a bid. Keep your eye on Loyola coming on with a late 6 game win streak. The Ramblers could be the wild-card in all of this.
Key Game: Loyola at Butler 2/22 9:00-Bulldogs need to shake late season slide and Ramblers could use a signature win as springboard to Horizon tourney
Missouri Valley
Locks- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Needs Help- Bradley, Missouri State
SIU and Creighton are going, period. Bradley is looking real good after win over VCU and their numbers (18/9 overall/league 29 RPI 18 SOS) are getting too good to ignore Mo. State blew a chance to improve itself with a loss to Winthrop and may have to win out to the MVC finals now to stay out of bubble talk.
Key Game: Northern Iowa at Bradley 2/20 -8:00- UNI has fallen off the Spec Sheet but that makes them no less dangerous to a Bradley team that need to keep winning
Mountain West
Locks-Air Force, Brigham YoungGood Shape-UNLV
Needs Help-San Diego State
San Diego State hurt itself with a bad loss to lowly Wyoming, while the Runnin’ Rebels won a crucial game in Utah. Air Force and Brigham Young are killing time till an inevitable showdown in the MWC tourney.
Key Game: Air Force at UNLV 2/20 10:00 Rebs could make their tourney case stronger by beating MWC ranked squad.
Pacific 10
Locks- UCLA, Oregon, Wash. St
Good Shape- Arizona, USC
Needs Help-Stanford, Washington
SC picked a bad time for an ugly loss. Losing to sad sack Arizona State not only is a momentum killer, but also feeds talk that the Trojans aren’t tourney worthy. I don’t believe that myself, but they’ll need to bounce back quick. Oregon is fading fast, but I still have them locked in…for now. But if they keep their middling ways up they might have to beg. Arizona is good shape, but they need to keep winning. I’m suspicious of trusting a young Stanford team any further than a game by game basis. Washington needs to get deep into the Pac-10 tourney now
Key Game: Washington St at Oregon 2/22- 9:00 Ducks have been looking weak lately, a win over the Cougars keeps any bubble talk away.
Southeastern
Lock-Florida,
Good Shape-Alabama, Tennessee, UK, Vanderbilt
Needs Help-Georgia, Ole Miss
UK is trying its best to give away its status as they have gone on a dangerous slide. Vanderbilt is in better shape now, have multiple huge wins and thrashing the streaking Lock status Gators is just the kind resume win the committee can’t ignore. Barring an epic collapse they are in very good shape. Bama is still looking good. Tennessee needs a couple more wins to get to lock status though their numbers are solid . Ole Miss fell hard and I can’t take Georgia seriously as a tourney team
Key Games: LSU at Kentucky 2/20 7:00- UK needs to stop the bleeding and shake bubble talk in the bluegrass, a win over a struggling LSU would do.
Alabama at Tennessee 2/21- 8:00 This game is more for a bid in the big dance than the SEC. Both could use this game as signature win.
West Coast
Good Shape-Gonzaga, Santa Clara
Gonzaga lost a heartbreaker to Memphis in OT, and a chance to shake bubble talk. They may need to get deep in the WCC tourney, if not win it outright now to get a dance ticket
Key Game: Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount 2/24 10:30-Broncos try to keep WCC lead and face last team to hand them a loss.
1 Bid major conferences
Conference USA
Lock-Memphis
The Tigers won a huge non-conference game in a hostile environment and might have locked a #2 seed up in the process.
Western Athletic
Lock-Nevada
Needs Help- New Mexico St
Nevada has nothing to worry about. New Mexico State is still breathing, albeit barely. Their win against Ohio keeps them looking to the WAC tourney at home in Las Cruces. If they get to the final and lose a close one to Nevada…who knows?
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel-Road warrior Dragons have won at Syracuse and Villanova
Old Dominion-Win against Toledo improved their overall profile
Appalachian State They have beaten Virginia and Vanderbilt, a team that no one wants to face.
Virginia Commonwealth 22 wins might offset mediocre numbers (RPI 57 SOS 127)
Hofstra-Showdown with VCU looms
Winthrop-Unbeaten in Big South and beating Mo. State helps but oooh those numbers (72 RPI 269 SOS) are painful
And remember the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?
Next Update: Feb 23rd
Friday, February 16, 2007
Spec Sheet 2/16
2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/16
The shuffling continues and the status lines will change next update. You will now see three lines. Locks: Teams that have all but assured themselves an NCAA berth and are playing for better seeding or a favorable locale. Good Shape: Teams that are just that and just need to keep winning or not a go on a prolonged losing streak or take ill-timed loss. Need Help: Teams in this designation either need to go on a hot streak or worse yet win everything including their conference tournament to get a berth. But those will start next week. Key Games only are listed in this update
The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, BC, Virginia, Va. Tech
Work to do- Maryland, Clemson, Duke, Virginia, Florida St.Duke stopped their slide with a badly needed win at BC. They still have work to do though. Coach K might ride his rep into a bid, but the Dukies still have wins over G-Town. Gonzaga, Indiana, and Air Force to bank a bid against. Maryland is creeping closer with solid road wins. Florida State’s loss at G-Tech has damaged their tourney hopes…possibly irreparably
Key Game: UNC at Boston College 2/17 9:00- The Eagles get little time to lick their wounds after getting beat by Duke, an angry UNC team comes a-calling
Atlantic Ten
Solid- Xavier
Work To Do- Rhode Island, UMass
The A-10 has moved to the multiple bid conference side of the ledger, but beyond Xavier, I’m not sold on anyone else in this conference. The Muskies can’t coast, though they only travel outside Ohio once more in the regular season, they have that tendency to wander and I’m expecting that to happen once more before the season is done. The Colonials are all but finished after getting blasted at home.
Key Game: Charlotte at Rhode Island 2/17-2:00 Rams need to keep winning to stay ahead of hard charging Muskies who are a ½ game back.
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Work To Do- Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse
I’ve never been a big fan of Louisville and less a fan of Rick Pitino but the Cards have to get some dap after their shocking rout of Pitt in the Oakland Zoo. That moves them to the front of the Worker line. I’m treating Notre Dame like I used to treat Indiana in years past, they need to prove that they are worthy. The same mantra goes for Syracuse, who returns to the list. 18 wins for the Orange don’t fully cover up some bad losses
Key Game: Notre Dame at Cincy 2/18 2:00- A danger game for the Irish, the Cats are struggling but are always tough at the ‘Shoe.
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan is off the list completely losing an ugly one in East Lansing. I’m not convinced that a 14-11 Iowa team is in. Only three bids from the Big 10 + 1? Right now that’s all that they deserve
Key Game: Iowa at Michigan St. 2/17 2:30- another knockout game for the Spartans, can the Hawkeyes prove they still belong in tourney talk?
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Texas
Work To Do-, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Nebraska is playing spoiler, they put Tech on life support last week and have made K-State sweat. Oh, I haven’t forgotten those that doubted me when I said Texas was safe? Then Longhorns thrashing of the Pokes should quash all talk of the Longhorns being a bubble team. The Pokes are what would be a good shape team, but they have to bounce back and they have a favorable schedule to do so. Texas Tech might have saved their season with their last second win in College Station but still have mass work to do though
Key Game: Texas A&M at Oklahoma 2/17 3:30- The Sooners were on a serious roll till they stumbled against Iowa State, they could turn a lot of heads if they upset the Aggies
Horizon
Solid-Butler
Work To Do-Wright State
Butler bounced back but their win over a no-name non D-1 team counts for zip. Wright State avoided the classic letdown by thumping Cleveland State, it’ll be interesting to see how they handle Cal-State Fullerton on Bracket Buster Saturday
Key Game: Southern Illinois at Butler 2/17 4:00-Both teams are ranked and safe, and have little to gain or lose besides seeding in this matchup, but it’ll be a hoot to watch these two top mid-majors square off in a game where the fans are the winner.
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Missouri State
Creighton handled their business against UNI and for all intents and purposes are safe. Mo. State is hangin’ around but the time is growing short, the bracket buster game vs. Winthrop is a needed win. Bradley escaped Evansville and stay on the list. UNI has lost four straight and are off the list
Key Game: Winthrop at Missouri State 2/16 -7:05- First Bracketbuster game of the weekend is a needed one for both. Mo. State can improve their resume with win over Big South leading Eagles
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV, San Diego State
UNLV may be in some trouble, their loss to red hot San Diego State puts them just a half game ahead of the surging Aztecs. Could the MWC send more teams than the Big 10 +1? I can already hear the carping by Billy Packer now.
Key Game: San Diego St at Wyoming 2/17 3:00 The Aztecs need to win the winnable ones. A trip to high-altitude Wyoming will be a test.
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, USC
Work To Do-Stanford, Washington
The Huskies are running out of time and opportunities to make a tourney case, after losing to Wazzu. A roadie to Pitt might be their last chance to strengthen their tourney resume before the Pac-10 tourney
Key Game: Washington at Pitt 2/17 Huskies need a marquee win, but the Panthers are smarting after a stunning rout by the ‘Ville. The Oakland Zoo will be rockin’
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
Tennessee proved to a lot of people what I’ve been saying for a while. They are safe. The team to watch suddenly is Ole Miss. Andy Kennedy has the Rebs coming on strong, and they have suddenly emerged on top of the SEC West they still have work to do, but deserve some dap.
Key Game: Ole Miss at Arkansas 2/17- 5:30 Rebs need to win to stay king of the hill in the SEC West
West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga,
Work to Do-Santa Clara
Santa Clara went to the Kennel and cleaned it out. The Broncos are now in control of the WCC and as long as they keep winning they improve their shot . Gonzaga has a solid enough resume (wins over UNC, Texas and Washington) despite so-so numbers (RPI 66 SOS 86) but if they can stop the white-hot Memphis Tigers this weekend they could still be in line for an at-large bid no matter what happens in the WCC tourney
Key Game: Memphis vs Gonzaga at Spokane Arena 2/17 12:00a-Not a Bracket Buster game, but a win that both teams could use as statement wins.
1 Bid major conferences
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
Tigers are safe and sound, but beating Gonzaga in hostile Spokane would quiet those that knock Memphis’ conference competition
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico StThe late fall by New Mexico State pushes this conference to 1 bid major. Nevada is going, while the Aggies need to win out. 20 wins or no, they have atrocious numbers (81 RPI, 259 SOS) and too many bad losses.
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth, Vermont and Hofstra.
Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of the grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?
Next Update: Feb 20th
Picks as of 2/16
The shuffling continues and the status lines will change next update. You will now see three lines. Locks: Teams that have all but assured themselves an NCAA berth and are playing for better seeding or a favorable locale. Good Shape: Teams that are just that and just need to keep winning or not a go on a prolonged losing streak or take ill-timed loss. Need Help: Teams in this designation either need to go on a hot streak or worse yet win everything including their conference tournament to get a berth. But those will start next week. Key Games only are listed in this update
The following conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, BC, Virginia, Va. Tech
Work to do- Maryland, Clemson, Duke, Virginia, Florida St.Duke stopped their slide with a badly needed win at BC. They still have work to do though. Coach K might ride his rep into a bid, but the Dukies still have wins over G-Town. Gonzaga, Indiana, and Air Force to bank a bid against. Maryland is creeping closer with solid road wins. Florida State’s loss at G-Tech has damaged their tourney hopes…possibly irreparably
Key Game: UNC at Boston College 2/17 9:00- The Eagles get little time to lick their wounds after getting beat by Duke, an angry UNC team comes a-calling
Atlantic Ten
Solid- Xavier
Work To Do- Rhode Island, UMass
The A-10 has moved to the multiple bid conference side of the ledger, but beyond Xavier, I’m not sold on anyone else in this conference. The Muskies can’t coast, though they only travel outside Ohio once more in the regular season, they have that tendency to wander and I’m expecting that to happen once more before the season is done. The Colonials are all but finished after getting blasted at home.
Key Game: Charlotte at Rhode Island 2/17-2:00 Rams need to keep winning to stay ahead of hard charging Muskies who are a ½ game back.
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Work To Do- Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse
I’ve never been a big fan of Louisville and less a fan of Rick Pitino but the Cards have to get some dap after their shocking rout of Pitt in the Oakland Zoo. That moves them to the front of the Worker line. I’m treating Notre Dame like I used to treat Indiana in years past, they need to prove that they are worthy. The same mantra goes for Syracuse, who returns to the list. 18 wins for the Orange don’t fully cover up some bad losses
Key Game: Notre Dame at Cincy 2/18 2:00- A danger game for the Irish, the Cats are struggling but are always tough at the ‘Shoe.
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan is off the list completely losing an ugly one in East Lansing. I’m not convinced that a 14-11 Iowa team is in. Only three bids from the Big 10 + 1? Right now that’s all that they deserve
Key Game: Iowa at Michigan St. 2/17 2:30- another knockout game for the Spartans, can the Hawkeyes prove they still belong in tourney talk?
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Texas
Work To Do-, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Nebraska is playing spoiler, they put Tech on life support last week and have made K-State sweat. Oh, I haven’t forgotten those that doubted me when I said Texas was safe? Then Longhorns thrashing of the Pokes should quash all talk of the Longhorns being a bubble team. The Pokes are what would be a good shape team, but they have to bounce back and they have a favorable schedule to do so. Texas Tech might have saved their season with their last second win in College Station but still have mass work to do though
Key Game: Texas A&M at Oklahoma 2/17 3:30- The Sooners were on a serious roll till they stumbled against Iowa State, they could turn a lot of heads if they upset the Aggies
Horizon
Solid-Butler
Work To Do-Wright State
Butler bounced back but their win over a no-name non D-1 team counts for zip. Wright State avoided the classic letdown by thumping Cleveland State, it’ll be interesting to see how they handle Cal-State Fullerton on Bracket Buster Saturday
Key Game: Southern Illinois at Butler 2/17 4:00-Both teams are ranked and safe, and have little to gain or lose besides seeding in this matchup, but it’ll be a hoot to watch these two top mid-majors square off in a game where the fans are the winner.
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Missouri State
Creighton handled their business against UNI and for all intents and purposes are safe. Mo. State is hangin’ around but the time is growing short, the bracket buster game vs. Winthrop is a needed win. Bradley escaped Evansville and stay on the list. UNI has lost four straight and are off the list
Key Game: Winthrop at Missouri State 2/16 -7:05- First Bracketbuster game of the weekend is a needed one for both. Mo. State can improve their resume with win over Big South leading Eagles
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV, San Diego State
UNLV may be in some trouble, their loss to red hot San Diego State puts them just a half game ahead of the surging Aztecs. Could the MWC send more teams than the Big 10 +1? I can already hear the carping by Billy Packer now.
Key Game: San Diego St at Wyoming 2/17 3:00 The Aztecs need to win the winnable ones. A trip to high-altitude Wyoming will be a test.
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, USC
Work To Do-Stanford, Washington
The Huskies are running out of time and opportunities to make a tourney case, after losing to Wazzu. A roadie to Pitt might be their last chance to strengthen their tourney resume before the Pac-10 tourney
Key Game: Washington at Pitt 2/17 Huskies need a marquee win, but the Panthers are smarting after a stunning rout by the ‘Ville. The Oakland Zoo will be rockin’
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
Tennessee proved to a lot of people what I’ve been saying for a while. They are safe. The team to watch suddenly is Ole Miss. Andy Kennedy has the Rebs coming on strong, and they have suddenly emerged on top of the SEC West they still have work to do, but deserve some dap.
Key Game: Ole Miss at Arkansas 2/17- 5:30 Rebs need to win to stay king of the hill in the SEC West
West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga,
Work to Do-Santa Clara
Santa Clara went to the Kennel and cleaned it out. The Broncos are now in control of the WCC and as long as they keep winning they improve their shot . Gonzaga has a solid enough resume (wins over UNC, Texas and Washington) despite so-so numbers (RPI 66 SOS 86) but if they can stop the white-hot Memphis Tigers this weekend they could still be in line for an at-large bid no matter what happens in the WCC tourney
Key Game: Memphis vs Gonzaga at Spokane Arena 2/17 12:00a-Not a Bracket Buster game, but a win that both teams could use as statement wins.
1 Bid major conferences
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
Tigers are safe and sound, but beating Gonzaga in hostile Spokane would quiet those that knock Memphis’ conference competition
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico StThe late fall by New Mexico State pushes this conference to 1 bid major. Nevada is going, while the Aggies need to win out. 20 wins or no, they have atrocious numbers (81 RPI, 259 SOS) and too many bad losses.
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth, Vermont and Hofstra.
Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of the grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Remember, this is spec and nothing here is solid yet though that will change and you know that there is no chance that there will be upsets or an unseen team making a mess of this right?
Next Update: Feb 20th
Monday, February 12, 2007
Spec Sheet 2/13
2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/13
One Month and counting till Selection Sunday! Let the chase for to be one of the chose 65 begin in earnest.
A wild and wooly weekend saw a hosts of upsets and thrilling games, and not just from the big boy conferences. There were some interesting non conference games as well. The so-called mid-majors could have another big year as the power conference are middling at best. The Pac-10 could send six teams and the Big 12 could send five, but conferences like the Big 10 will be lucky to send four and outside of North Carolina the ACC has no real bona fide locks. The SEC is a mess beyond Florida and maybe UK. So that leaves the bane of Billy Packer, the alleged mid-majors to snatch up at large spots. It is well documented of my beef with the so-called experts like Billy Packer and bleating media wonks like Skip Bayless and JT The Brick who hate the mid-majors and whine that they do not play worthy power conference teams. Teams like Texas, Duke, Pitt and Ohio State know better than to play a rugged so-called mid major like a Creighton, Old Dominion or Butler. They won’t go to them, cause they have no incentive and bringing a team like that in is high-risk of taking an L at home. Wonks like Packer then whine on Selection Sunday when these alleged mid-majors get bids over their pet teams. Recall if you will last year when teams like Bradley, Butler and George Mason proved that they were worthy of their bids and sent power teams home earlier than would have been thought. I’ll get off my soapbox for now…
Key players are listed as usual and I have also added key games as well that have become crucial to teams postseason hopes.
These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, BC, Virginia, Va. Tech
Work to do- Maryland, Clemson, Duke, Virginia, Florida St.Ok, Maryland is now in the picture to stay with their shocking rout of Duke. The Blue Devils stunning slide has gotten them demoted to the second tier line. They could move back up with a win at BC…good luck. Virginia wasted the goodwill they earned with their win over Duke by getting blasted in Blacksburg. Florida State has dropped back with their poor play that even their rock solid numbers (19 RPI, 14 SOS) can't hide anymore.
Player To Watch-Branden Wright So/F-North Carolina In shadow of Tyler Hansbrough but a viable alternate scorer for the Heels
Key Game: Duke at Boston College 2/14 7:30- The Eagles get to prove their shocking rout of the Blue Devils in Durham was no fluke
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Work To Do- Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville, Villanova
I was reviewing numbers and noticed that ‘Nova has rock solid numbers (16-7, SOS 5, RPI 17) but they have no headliner wins and their 4-5 Big East mark is mediocre at very best. G-Town and West Virginia move up. The Mountaineers do in spite of an ugly home loss vs Pitt but bounced back with a shocking win over 2nd ranked UCLA that got them a whole lotta notice. The Hoyas have earned their move with solid, consistent play. Notre Dame is teetering on the brink of dropping off with bad play and numbers (RPI 51, SOS 125) that are criminal
Player to Watch:Frank Young Sr/F West Virginia Rugged vet leader keeps the Mountaineers on course for a NCAA bid.
Key Game: Seton Hall at UConn 2/14- Only the top 12 teams go to New York for the Big East tourney, if the Huskies want to stay above the drowning line they had better win this one.
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan
As soon as I give Michigan State dap, they go into the tank, Michigan is doing the same and are close to getting the boot (I don’t care if State has 17 wins) Iowa is in 4th in the Big 10+1 but has no big wins, except for Indiana. The Illini are another team too good to ignore, but not good enough to make solid. They wasted a big opportunity to move up by losing to Indiana
Player to Watch: Adam Haluska Sr./G-Iowa Averaging an eye-popping 20.8 ppg and Hawkeyes are riding his dead-eye shooting.
Key Game: Michigan at Michigan St. 2/13 9:00- Could this be a an at-large knockout game for the loser?
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Texas
Work To Do-, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Kansas State has made its case despite getting shellacked at Allen Fieldhouse. They switch places with Oklahoma State who has taken a dangerous slide but righted themselves with a badly needed win over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are out with their ill-timed losing streak. The Sooners are on the working list for now, to move up they but need to keep winning; games against A&M, Texas and Kansas on the docket present an excellent opportunity to do so.
Player to Watch: Mario Boggan SR/F-C Oklahoma State-The Pokes stretch drive will go as this high scoring big man goes
Key Game: Texas Tech at Texas A&M 2/13 7:00- The Aggies last loss was to Tech in Lubbock by 2. That was the Red Raiders last win, incidentally. You think this might mean something?
Horizon
Solid-Butler
Work To Do-Wright State
The Raiders took a thrilling game before a packed house at the Nutter Center in Dayton Saturday and have barged into the tourney picture. They may still have to win the Horizon tourney outright to get their bid, but you can bet that the other conferences are sweating now. Butler will not get locked out and will take an at-large if need be. This would only be a multiple bid conference if Wright gets the auto bid.
Player to Watch: DeShaun Wood SR/G-Wright State- Dropped 30 on Butler to spark Raiders and make them contenders for the Horizon title.
Key Game: Southern Illinois at Butler 2/17 4:00-Both teams are ranked and safe, and have little to gain or lose in this matchup, but it’ll be a hoot to watch these two top mid-majors square off in a game where the fans are the winner.
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
SIU won a see-saw contest at home in Carbondale over Creighton but the Bluejays are still very much in the picture. Creighton has to bounce back against a good Northern Iowa team. Mo. State has the best shot of the workers, and can make their case better with a win in Bracket Busters against Winthrop. Northern Iowa took a pair of bad losses at a time they can ill afford them and with a trip to Omaha to face the aforementioned Creighton, the road gets no easier. The Shockers keep hangin’ round but they are getting close to the win it to get in it stage and are running out of time in the regular season.
Player To Watch:Blake Ahern Sr/G-Missouri State. If the Bears are going anywhere, Ahern’s shooting will get them there.
Key Games: Southern Illinois at Missouri St 2/13 8:05 and Northern Iowa at Creighton 2/13- 9:05 SIU and Creighton get no rest after their clash for control of the MVC both have to deal with pursing teams with NCAA dreams of their own.
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV, San Diego State
Air Force’s loss to San Diego State looks less puzzling now, as the Aztecs are making a late charge into the tourney picture. Air Force and BYU are still very safe but the UNLV-San Diego State tilt is looking like a possible at-large knockout match.
Player to Watch: Brandon Heath, Sr/G San Diego State- Big play scorer has sparked Aztecs late dash into contention
Key Game: UNLV at San Diego St 2/13 11:00 The Aztecs have charged into the MWC title chase and a win over the Rebels helps their cause immensely
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Washington
Arizona picked itself off the canvas with a badly needed win over Oregon. UCLA got ambushed in Mountaineer country but have no worries. Washington comes back into the picture with a bay area team sweep, an interesting roadie to Pitt follows a toughie versus Wash. St. If the Huskies can get one or both, they will have to be considered more seriously
Player to watch: Nick Young, Jr/G-F USC-High Flying tweener is the engine the drives the Trojans stretch run.
Key Games: USC at Arizona 2/15 and UCLA at Arizona 2/17- If Wildcats want to quash talk of being on the NCAA bubble a split would do fine and a sweep would do it completely
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt
Bama is closing in on 20 wins but can’t shake the rest of the SEC West pack. UK should be pretty safe despite its heartbreaking loss to Florida. Georgia got a needed win, but need to keep winning before facing UK and Tennessee back to back. Could the SEC send 5 from the east and one from the west?
Player to Watch- Derrick Byars Jr/G-F-Vanderbilt He has been doing it all for the Commodores and may get them a NCAA bid.
Key Game: Alabama at Florida 2/14 Can anyone stop the streaking Gators? The Tide get their shot, but face the Gators at the very hostile O'Connell Center
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
New Mexico State might just be finished. Their losses to Utah State and Fresno State could not have come at a worse time. The Wolfpack is pulling away and the road gets no easier for the fading Aggies with a trip to Hawai’i and a visit from MAC dark horse Ohio on Bracket Buster weekend.
Players to watch: Ramon Sessions Jr./G-Nevada Giving the WAC-leading Wolfpack yet another scoring option.
Key Game: New Mexico State at Hawai’i 2/13 12:05a-Aggies need to salvage fading NCAA hopes
West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Work to Do-Santa Clara
What looked like a stone cold lock a couple weeks ago has suddenly turned to mush for the Bulldogs. Suspension of Josh Heytvelt bodes ill with hard chargin’ Santa Clara comin’ to town. And a date with Memphis in the Spokane Arena, may not be the type of opponent the reeling Bulldogs need right now. Santa Clara may make this a one bid conference if Gonzaga falls hard.
Player to Watch: Derek Raivio Jr/G-Gonzaga- With Heytvelt out, the load falls even more on the Bulldogs leading scorer.
Key Game: Santa Clara at Gonzaga 2/13 12:00a-Plain and simple, this is a showdown for control of the WCC
1 Bid major conferences
Atlantic Ten
Solid- Xavier
Work To Do- Rhode Island Geo. Wash, Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier has suddenly surged to the top of the A-10. They have moved to solid, but its tenous at best. The others in the working pack still could have some moves to make.
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
The beat(ings) go on in C-USA as Memphis is running the show
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth, Vermont and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of the grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC; remember, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets and cinderella tourney runs. But those never happen, right?
Next Update: Feb 16th
Picks as of 2/13
One Month and counting till Selection Sunday! Let the chase for to be one of the chose 65 begin in earnest.
A wild and wooly weekend saw a hosts of upsets and thrilling games, and not just from the big boy conferences. There were some interesting non conference games as well. The so-called mid-majors could have another big year as the power conference are middling at best. The Pac-10 could send six teams and the Big 12 could send five, but conferences like the Big 10 will be lucky to send four and outside of North Carolina the ACC has no real bona fide locks. The SEC is a mess beyond Florida and maybe UK. So that leaves the bane of Billy Packer, the alleged mid-majors to snatch up at large spots. It is well documented of my beef with the so-called experts like Billy Packer and bleating media wonks like Skip Bayless and JT The Brick who hate the mid-majors and whine that they do not play worthy power conference teams. Teams like Texas, Duke, Pitt and Ohio State know better than to play a rugged so-called mid major like a Creighton, Old Dominion or Butler. They won’t go to them, cause they have no incentive and bringing a team like that in is high-risk of taking an L at home. Wonks like Packer then whine on Selection Sunday when these alleged mid-majors get bids over their pet teams. Recall if you will last year when teams like Bradley, Butler and George Mason proved that they were worthy of their bids and sent power teams home earlier than would have been thought. I’ll get off my soapbox for now…
Key players are listed as usual and I have also added key games as well that have become crucial to teams postseason hopes.
These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, BC, Virginia, Va. Tech
Work to do- Maryland, Clemson, Duke, Virginia, Florida St.Ok, Maryland is now in the picture to stay with their shocking rout of Duke. The Blue Devils stunning slide has gotten them demoted to the second tier line. They could move back up with a win at BC…good luck. Virginia wasted the goodwill they earned with their win over Duke by getting blasted in Blacksburg. Florida State has dropped back with their poor play that even their rock solid numbers (19 RPI, 14 SOS) can't hide anymore.
Player To Watch-Branden Wright So/F-North Carolina In shadow of Tyler Hansbrough but a viable alternate scorer for the Heels
Key Game: Duke at Boston College 2/14 7:30- The Eagles get to prove their shocking rout of the Blue Devils in Durham was no fluke
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia
Work To Do- Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville, Villanova
I was reviewing numbers and noticed that ‘Nova has rock solid numbers (16-7, SOS 5, RPI 17) but they have no headliner wins and their 4-5 Big East mark is mediocre at very best. G-Town and West Virginia move up. The Mountaineers do in spite of an ugly home loss vs Pitt but bounced back with a shocking win over 2nd ranked UCLA that got them a whole lotta notice. The Hoyas have earned their move with solid, consistent play. Notre Dame is teetering on the brink of dropping off with bad play and numbers (RPI 51, SOS 125) that are criminal
Player to Watch:Frank Young Sr/F West Virginia Rugged vet leader keeps the Mountaineers on course for a NCAA bid.
Key Game: Seton Hall at UConn 2/14- Only the top 12 teams go to New York for the Big East tourney, if the Huskies want to stay above the drowning line they had better win this one.
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan
As soon as I give Michigan State dap, they go into the tank, Michigan is doing the same and are close to getting the boot (I don’t care if State has 17 wins) Iowa is in 4th in the Big 10+1 but has no big wins, except for Indiana. The Illini are another team too good to ignore, but not good enough to make solid. They wasted a big opportunity to move up by losing to Indiana
Player to Watch: Adam Haluska Sr./G-Iowa Averaging an eye-popping 20.8 ppg and Hawkeyes are riding his dead-eye shooting.
Key Game: Michigan at Michigan St. 2/13 9:00- Could this be a an at-large knockout game for the loser?
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Texas
Work To Do-, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Kansas State has made its case despite getting shellacked at Allen Fieldhouse. They switch places with Oklahoma State who has taken a dangerous slide but righted themselves with a badly needed win over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are out with their ill-timed losing streak. The Sooners are on the working list for now, to move up they but need to keep winning; games against A&M, Texas and Kansas on the docket present an excellent opportunity to do so.
Player to Watch: Mario Boggan SR/F-C Oklahoma State-The Pokes stretch drive will go as this high scoring big man goes
Key Game: Texas Tech at Texas A&M 2/13 7:00- The Aggies last loss was to Tech in Lubbock by 2. That was the Red Raiders last win, incidentally. You think this might mean something?
Horizon
Solid-Butler
Work To Do-Wright State
The Raiders took a thrilling game before a packed house at the Nutter Center in Dayton Saturday and have barged into the tourney picture. They may still have to win the Horizon tourney outright to get their bid, but you can bet that the other conferences are sweating now. Butler will not get locked out and will take an at-large if need be. This would only be a multiple bid conference if Wright gets the auto bid.
Player to Watch: DeShaun Wood SR/G-Wright State- Dropped 30 on Butler to spark Raiders and make them contenders for the Horizon title.
Key Game: Southern Illinois at Butler 2/17 4:00-Both teams are ranked and safe, and have little to gain or lose in this matchup, but it’ll be a hoot to watch these two top mid-majors square off in a game where the fans are the winner.
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
SIU won a see-saw contest at home in Carbondale over Creighton but the Bluejays are still very much in the picture. Creighton has to bounce back against a good Northern Iowa team. Mo. State has the best shot of the workers, and can make their case better with a win in Bracket Busters against Winthrop. Northern Iowa took a pair of bad losses at a time they can ill afford them and with a trip to Omaha to face the aforementioned Creighton, the road gets no easier. The Shockers keep hangin’ round but they are getting close to the win it to get in it stage and are running out of time in the regular season.
Player To Watch:Blake Ahern Sr/G-Missouri State. If the Bears are going anywhere, Ahern’s shooting will get them there.
Key Games: Southern Illinois at Missouri St 2/13 8:05 and Northern Iowa at Creighton 2/13- 9:05 SIU and Creighton get no rest after their clash for control of the MVC both have to deal with pursing teams with NCAA dreams of their own.
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV, San Diego State
Air Force’s loss to San Diego State looks less puzzling now, as the Aztecs are making a late charge into the tourney picture. Air Force and BYU are still very safe but the UNLV-San Diego State tilt is looking like a possible at-large knockout match.
Player to Watch: Brandon Heath, Sr/G San Diego State- Big play scorer has sparked Aztecs late dash into contention
Key Game: UNLV at San Diego St 2/13 11:00 The Aztecs have charged into the MWC title chase and a win over the Rebels helps their cause immensely
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Washington
Arizona picked itself off the canvas with a badly needed win over Oregon. UCLA got ambushed in Mountaineer country but have no worries. Washington comes back into the picture with a bay area team sweep, an interesting roadie to Pitt follows a toughie versus Wash. St. If the Huskies can get one or both, they will have to be considered more seriously
Player to watch: Nick Young, Jr/G-F USC-High Flying tweener is the engine the drives the Trojans stretch run.
Key Games: USC at Arizona 2/15 and UCLA at Arizona 2/17- If Wildcats want to quash talk of being on the NCAA bubble a split would do fine and a sweep would do it completely
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt
Bama is closing in on 20 wins but can’t shake the rest of the SEC West pack. UK should be pretty safe despite its heartbreaking loss to Florida. Georgia got a needed win, but need to keep winning before facing UK and Tennessee back to back. Could the SEC send 5 from the east and one from the west?
Player to Watch- Derrick Byars Jr/G-F-Vanderbilt He has been doing it all for the Commodores and may get them a NCAA bid.
Key Game: Alabama at Florida 2/14 Can anyone stop the streaking Gators? The Tide get their shot, but face the Gators at the very hostile O'Connell Center
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
New Mexico State might just be finished. Their losses to Utah State and Fresno State could not have come at a worse time. The Wolfpack is pulling away and the road gets no easier for the fading Aggies with a trip to Hawai’i and a visit from MAC dark horse Ohio on Bracket Buster weekend.
Players to watch: Ramon Sessions Jr./G-Nevada Giving the WAC-leading Wolfpack yet another scoring option.
Key Game: New Mexico State at Hawai’i 2/13 12:05a-Aggies need to salvage fading NCAA hopes
West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Work to Do-Santa Clara
What looked like a stone cold lock a couple weeks ago has suddenly turned to mush for the Bulldogs. Suspension of Josh Heytvelt bodes ill with hard chargin’ Santa Clara comin’ to town. And a date with Memphis in the Spokane Arena, may not be the type of opponent the reeling Bulldogs need right now. Santa Clara may make this a one bid conference if Gonzaga falls hard.
Player to Watch: Derek Raivio Jr/G-Gonzaga- With Heytvelt out, the load falls even more on the Bulldogs leading scorer.
Key Game: Santa Clara at Gonzaga 2/13 12:00a-Plain and simple, this is a showdown for control of the WCC
1 Bid major conferences
Atlantic Ten
Solid- Xavier
Work To Do- Rhode Island Geo. Wash, Rhode Island, UMass
Xavier has suddenly surged to the top of the A-10. They have moved to solid, but its tenous at best. The others in the working pack still could have some moves to make.
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
The beat(ings) go on in C-USA as Memphis is running the show
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth, Vermont and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of the grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC; remember, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets and cinderella tourney runs. But those never happen, right?
Next Update: Feb 16th
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Spec Sheet 2/8
2007 NCAA Spec SheetPicks as of 2/8
“This is for you new ones.”
I used a lot of terminology here. Words like numbers have been explained, the newest one is the slash “/” First number is referring to overall wins and the second is conference wins. All teams want to get the automatic bid but to get an at-large bid a number of factors go into selection process. Two that are crucial are overall wins (anything over 20 is good) and conference wins (10 or more in power conference, 12 or more in a smaller conference)
Key players are listed, and key matchups will be listed soon as well
These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, Duke, BC, Virginia, Florida St. Va. Tech
Work to do- Maryland, Clemson Lotsa moving in the ACC both ways, Clemson falls as their hot start is distant memory. The Cavs and Eagles are solid right now because they are 1-2 in the ACC thus they move up. The Hokies are in the most trouble of the solid teams, getting blasted at BC doesn’t help matters. But the UNC/Duke daily double keeps them safe and solid for now. Florida State needs to keep winning but they have the best numbers of the working teams. Maryland needs a win over Duke Saturday and then we can talk.
Player To Watch-Jared Dudley Sr/F-Boston College Keeping the Eagles the surprise leader in the ACC averaging better than 19 a game
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette
Work to do- West Virginia, G-Town, Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville Providence came dangerously close to taking an ill-timed L to Cincy, The Hoyas are on the cusp of solid and another couple wins should firm them up. If the Irish win 4 of their last 6, a doable task they’ll be solid. The Mountaineers have a brutal schedule still, but they can solidify themselves at that magical 20/10 win plateau with three wins two of those can be had with home wins over Seton Hall and Cincy
Players to Watch-Jerrel McNeal & Dominic James So./G-Marquette Speedy slasher (McNeal) works good with smallish point guard (James) to form a potent backcourt for the Golden Eagles
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, MichiganState has a brutal stretch run but 17 wins (as of 2/7 ) is too hard to ignore, Illinois have a lot of road work but if they can get to say 20 and 9. They’ll be hard to overlook
Player to Watch: Greg Oden Fr./C-Ohio State Just because I gave Alando Tucker props last time doesn’t mean that Oden isn’t a force. His impact cannot be ignored.
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Work To Do-Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas StateTech picked the worst time to take a home loss. The Red Raiders fall from ahead loss to Nebraska puts Knight’s gang in trouble. The Pokes are still solid, though any more losses to bottom feeders like Colorado will make them shaky. Texas’ have soft numbers but have respectable road losses, no shame in getting run down and out in College Station. K-State is getting hard to justify keeping out.
Player To Watch :Cartier Martin SR/G-F Kansas State-Huggins always make decent players better and Martin is no exception. A classic tweener who can score and plays tough defense
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
SIU is safe even if they lose to Creighton and the Blue Jays further solidify themselves if they win. Mo. State has the best shot of the workers, and can make their case better with a win in Bracket Busters against Winthrop. Northern Iowa took a pair of bad losses at a time they can ill afford them. The Shockers keep hangin’ round but they are getting close to the win it to get in it stage.
Player To Watch:Daniel Ruffin Jr/G-Bradley. A solid scorer who can drop a dime or two, Ruffin has the Braves still in the NCAA mix a year after their sweet 16 run.
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV
Air Force put itself in trouble with a puzzling loss to San Diego State. But can the MWC send three teams? With conferences like the A-10 and C-USA looking more and more like 1 bid conferences, it’s looking more and more possible.
Player to Watch: Dan Nwaelele, Sr/F Air Force- A solid scorer and hes in astronautics…that’s just cool in itself.
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Cal The Wildcats are trying to give their birthright NCAA bid away, but are still on the solid line…for now. Stanford is a ahead of nationally ranked Oregon, but has more work to firm up their numbers. Washington and Cal had better get right or they will get left too
Player to watch: Arron Afflalo, Jr/G UCLA-Keeping the Bruins thinking of a return trip to the Final Four
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt
Tennessee is still okay right now, Alabama is back solid only because they are on top of the SEC West. Vanderbilt keeps making its case stronger and stronger. Georgia has a lot of work to do still but are in the picture. Player to Watch- Randolph Morris Jr/F-C-Kentucky Wildcats will need his solid post play to deal with Noah in Florida
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
Aggies picked an awful time for a bad loss. They may need to run the table and get to the WAC final at home. Nevada is on that docket as well, can the Aggies take both games?
Players to watch: Jaycee Carroll Jr./G-Utah State Leading scorer in WAC leads Aggies to big upset and has them as a WAC Dark Horse.
West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Work to Do-Santa ClaraBulldogs took a bad L to Loyola and suddenly Santa Clara is in the mix. The Bulldogs have the better resume and with home games the rest of the way, get the inside track This conference on get multiples only if Broncos get the auto bid
1 Bid major conferences
Atlantic Ten
Solid-
Work To Do- Rhode Island Geo. Wash, Xavier, Rhode Island, UMass
Rhode Island sits on top here, but the Colonials and Muskies are still in contention and the Minutemen lurk. This conference still looks like it will only get one bid
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
Memphis’ has yet to lose in the 2007 calendar year, I can’t see ‘em losing again till the big dance
Horizon
Solid-Butler
You can bank on the Bulldogs going and making some noise.
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Since this is an early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
“This is for you new ones.”
I used a lot of terminology here. Words like numbers have been explained, the newest one is the slash “/” First number is referring to overall wins and the second is conference wins. All teams want to get the automatic bid but to get an at-large bid a number of factors go into selection process. Two that are crucial are overall wins (anything over 20 is good) and conference wins (10 or more in power conference, 12 or more in a smaller conference)
Key players are listed, and key matchups will be listed soon as well
These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, Duke, BC, Virginia, Florida St. Va. Tech
Work to do- Maryland, Clemson Lotsa moving in the ACC both ways, Clemson falls as their hot start is distant memory. The Cavs and Eagles are solid right now because they are 1-2 in the ACC thus they move up. The Hokies are in the most trouble of the solid teams, getting blasted at BC doesn’t help matters. But the UNC/Duke daily double keeps them safe and solid for now. Florida State needs to keep winning but they have the best numbers of the working teams. Maryland needs a win over Duke Saturday and then we can talk.
Player To Watch-Jared Dudley Sr/F-Boston College Keeping the Eagles the surprise leader in the ACC averaging better than 19 a game
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette
Work to do- West Virginia, G-Town, Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville Providence came dangerously close to taking an ill-timed L to Cincy, The Hoyas are on the cusp of solid and another couple wins should firm them up. If the Irish win 4 of their last 6, a doable task they’ll be solid. The Mountaineers have a brutal schedule still, but they can solidify themselves at that magical 20/10 win plateau with three wins two of those can be had with home wins over Seton Hall and Cincy
Players to Watch-Jerrel McNeal & Dominic James So./G-Marquette Speedy slasher (McNeal) works good with smallish point guard (James) to form a potent backcourt for the Golden Eagles
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, MichiganState has a brutal stretch run but 17 wins (as of 2/7 ) is too hard to ignore, Illinois have a lot of road work but if they can get to say 20 and 9. They’ll be hard to overlook
Player to Watch: Greg Oden Fr./C-Ohio State Just because I gave Alando Tucker props last time doesn’t mean that Oden isn’t a force. His impact cannot be ignored.
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Work To Do-Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas StateTech picked the worst time to take a home loss. The Red Raiders fall from ahead loss to Nebraska puts Knight’s gang in trouble. The Pokes are still solid, though any more losses to bottom feeders like Colorado will make them shaky. Texas’ have soft numbers but have respectable road losses, no shame in getting run down and out in College Station. K-State is getting hard to justify keeping out.
Player To Watch :Cartier Martin SR/G-F Kansas State-Huggins always make decent players better and Martin is no exception. A classic tweener who can score and plays tough defense
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
SIU is safe even if they lose to Creighton and the Blue Jays further solidify themselves if they win. Mo. State has the best shot of the workers, and can make their case better with a win in Bracket Busters against Winthrop. Northern Iowa took a pair of bad losses at a time they can ill afford them. The Shockers keep hangin’ round but they are getting close to the win it to get in it stage.
Player To Watch:Daniel Ruffin Jr/G-Bradley. A solid scorer who can drop a dime or two, Ruffin has the Braves still in the NCAA mix a year after their sweet 16 run.
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV
Air Force put itself in trouble with a puzzling loss to San Diego State. But can the MWC send three teams? With conferences like the A-10 and C-USA looking more and more like 1 bid conferences, it’s looking more and more possible.
Player to Watch: Dan Nwaelele, Sr/F Air Force- A solid scorer and hes in astronautics…that’s just cool in itself.
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Cal The Wildcats are trying to give their birthright NCAA bid away, but are still on the solid line…for now. Stanford is a ahead of nationally ranked Oregon, but has more work to firm up their numbers. Washington and Cal had better get right or they will get left too
Player to watch: Arron Afflalo, Jr/G UCLA-Keeping the Bruins thinking of a return trip to the Final Four
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt
Tennessee is still okay right now, Alabama is back solid only because they are on top of the SEC West. Vanderbilt keeps making its case stronger and stronger. Georgia has a lot of work to do still but are in the picture. Player to Watch- Randolph Morris Jr/F-C-Kentucky Wildcats will need his solid post play to deal with Noah in Florida
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
Aggies picked an awful time for a bad loss. They may need to run the table and get to the WAC final at home. Nevada is on that docket as well, can the Aggies take both games?
Players to watch: Jaycee Carroll Jr./G-Utah State Leading scorer in WAC leads Aggies to big upset and has them as a WAC Dark Horse.
West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Work to Do-Santa ClaraBulldogs took a bad L to Loyola and suddenly Santa Clara is in the mix. The Bulldogs have the better resume and with home games the rest of the way, get the inside track This conference on get multiples only if Broncos get the auto bid
1 Bid major conferences
Atlantic Ten
Solid-
Work To Do- Rhode Island Geo. Wash, Xavier, Rhode Island, UMass
Rhode Island sits on top here, but the Colonials and Muskies are still in contention and the Minutemen lurk. This conference still looks like it will only get one bid
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
Memphis’ has yet to lose in the 2007 calendar year, I can’t see ‘em losing again till the big dance
Horizon
Solid-Butler
You can bank on the Bulldogs going and making some noise.
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Since this is an early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
2/6 NCAA Spec Sheet
NCAA Spec Sheet Update
Info and stats as of 2/6
As soon as you think that things make sense, things get topsy-turvy. UNC gets bounced in Raleigh. Oregon catches a beatdown in LA and UNLV gets its head kicked in Provo. And Duke goes sour at home no less against Florida State. Folks its gonna get a lot crazier before too long and we haven’t even gotten to the conference tournaments!
These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances to earn those bids
I’ve also included players to watch whose play is crucial to a teams postseason chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, Duke, Clemson Va. Tech
Work to do- Florida State, Maryland, BC, Virginia
Florida State got back on steadier ground with a thrilling rally at Cameron Indoor, their first win in Durham in 16 tries. Clemson stays on the solid line for now…but they are one more bad loss away from falling. BC and Virginia on the other hand are getting harder to justify keeping them out of the Solid status add to boot they are 1 and 2 in the ACC respectively.
Player To Watch: Sean Singletary Jr/G, Virginia The “single” most reason that the Cavs took down the Dukies last week he’s averaging over 19 points a game.
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette
Work to do- West Virginia, G-Town, Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville
Just when you start to get sold on Notre Dame they take a bad loss to Big East bottom feeder South Florida. Nova is of the list despite beating Louisville and the Cards stay on...for now. West Virginia is getting closer to solid status.
Player to Watch: Roy Hibbert Jr./C, Georgetown Solid rebounder and with a soft touch around the basket. Hibbert is yet another in a long line of solid Hoya big men.
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan
Ok, I am a man of my word. The Hoosiers have solidified their tourney status with a gritty, gutty win over Wisconsin but then turned around, got beat in Iowa despite a late rally and make me want to revoke it. Michigan State is getting harder to ignore (as usual) and Purdue is off the list with losing three of their last five. Iowa is going to need to pile the wins up to get more than a cursory glance and if Adam Huruska keeps tossing in 33. They may get that look.
Player to Watch: Greg Oden Fr./C, Ohio State Just because I gave Alando Tucker props last time doesn’t mean that Oden isn’t a force. His impact cannot be ignored.
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Work To Do-Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
A&M is the best team no one’s talking about. All the focus is on Texas and Kansas, but the Aggies are the team no one wants to deal with. Kansas State continues to make people realize the Bob Huggins is a pretty good coach and the Wildcats are piling up the wins.
Player To Watch :Acie Earl IV- Sr/G, Texas A&M-Best player on a team you know little about. But that won’t last long His 22 points 15 assist game last night against Texas put folks on notice about this silky smooth guard.
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
The Salukis and Blue Jays are headed to a showdown in Carbondale on Saturday, a game that benefits Creighton more than Southern Illinois. The Shockers are off the list completely as they have dropped almost totally out of MVC title contention.
Player To Watch: Jamaal Tatum Sr/G, Southern Illinois. His solid play has kept the Salukis as the top dog in the Missouri Valley.
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV
The Cougars are for real, as their stunning rout of the Rebels makes the status switch very necessary. Air Force is safe, but BYU has become impossible to ignore now. UNLV needs to bounce back and keep winning to re-solidify their tourney status
Player to Watch: Mike Rose Sr/G, BYU- I know he only averages 5.3 ppg, but I got to give him dap for the 8 three-pointers he dropped in the Cougars rout of UNLV
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Cal
Is anyone questioning my moving SC to solid status now after they beat Oregon? Arizona is getting real close to falling to Work status after their horrendous week, the losses were to respectable teams to be sure (UNC and Wash. St) but they got clocked at home twice before getting a badly needed win over Washington who is now off the list and Cal is in serious danger of dropping off too.
Player to watch: Derrick Low, Jr/G, Washington State-Solid shooter for a team that will be tough to beat in March
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt
'Bama saved itself a lot of problems with a pair of badly needed wins and in the morass that the SEC West is wins are at a premium. UK looks like it’ll teeter but rights itself with solid wins. Arkansas and LSU are off the list with their abysmal play as of late. Tennessee had better get right or get left off this list
Player to Watch: Joakim Noah Jr/F-C, Florida The Gators aren’t worried about much these days but you can be sure opponents are worried about Noah
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
The Wolfpack survived a massive home scare from Hawaii and Aggies aren’t going away. Can the WAC sent two teams, it’s becoming more possible.
Player to watch: Marcelus Kemp Jr/G, Nevada He keeps opponents from focusing too much on Nick Fazekas
1 Bid major conferences
Atlantic Ten
Solid- None yet
Work To Do- Rhode Island Geo. Wash, Xavier, Rhode Island, UMass
Rhode Island sits on top here, but the Colonials and Muskies are still in contention and the Minutemen lurk. This conference still looks like it will only get one bid
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
Its Memphis and the 11 dwarves here.
Horizon
Solid-Butler
You can bank on the Bulldogs going and making some noise.
West Coast
Solid-GonzagaBulldogs (I’m not calling them the Zags!) still okay for now, their solid non-conference schedule makes them hard to ignore as long as they don’t screw up in conference.
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of grey area.
And of course the teams that win their conference tourney from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC
Its still early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Info and stats as of 2/6
As soon as you think that things make sense, things get topsy-turvy. UNC gets bounced in Raleigh. Oregon catches a beatdown in LA and UNLV gets its head kicked in Provo. And Duke goes sour at home no less against Florida State. Folks its gonna get a lot crazier before too long and we haven’t even gotten to the conference tournaments!
These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances to earn those bids
I’ve also included players to watch whose play is crucial to a teams postseason chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, Duke, Clemson Va. Tech
Work to do- Florida State, Maryland, BC, Virginia
Florida State got back on steadier ground with a thrilling rally at Cameron Indoor, their first win in Durham in 16 tries. Clemson stays on the solid line for now…but they are one more bad loss away from falling. BC and Virginia on the other hand are getting harder to justify keeping them out of the Solid status add to boot they are 1 and 2 in the ACC respectively.
Player To Watch: Sean Singletary Jr/G, Virginia The “single” most reason that the Cavs took down the Dukies last week he’s averaging over 19 points a game.
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette
Work to do- West Virginia, G-Town, Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville
Just when you start to get sold on Notre Dame they take a bad loss to Big East bottom feeder South Florida. Nova is of the list despite beating Louisville and the Cards stay on...for now. West Virginia is getting closer to solid status.
Player to Watch: Roy Hibbert Jr./C, Georgetown Solid rebounder and with a soft touch around the basket. Hibbert is yet another in a long line of solid Hoya big men.
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Work To Do- Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan
Ok, I am a man of my word. The Hoosiers have solidified their tourney status with a gritty, gutty win over Wisconsin but then turned around, got beat in Iowa despite a late rally and make me want to revoke it. Michigan State is getting harder to ignore (as usual) and Purdue is off the list with losing three of their last five. Iowa is going to need to pile the wins up to get more than a cursory glance and if Adam Huruska keeps tossing in 33. They may get that look.
Player to Watch: Greg Oden Fr./C, Ohio State Just because I gave Alando Tucker props last time doesn’t mean that Oden isn’t a force. His impact cannot be ignored.
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Work To Do-Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
A&M is the best team no one’s talking about. All the focus is on Texas and Kansas, but the Aggies are the team no one wants to deal with. Kansas State continues to make people realize the Bob Huggins is a pretty good coach and the Wildcats are piling up the wins.
Player To Watch :Acie Earl IV- Sr/G, Texas A&M-Best player on a team you know little about. But that won’t last long His 22 points 15 assist game last night against Texas put folks on notice about this silky smooth guard.
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois, Creighton
Work To Do- Bradley, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
The Salukis and Blue Jays are headed to a showdown in Carbondale on Saturday, a game that benefits Creighton more than Southern Illinois. The Shockers are off the list completely as they have dropped almost totally out of MVC title contention.
Player To Watch: Jamaal Tatum Sr/G, Southern Illinois. His solid play has kept the Salukis as the top dog in the Missouri Valley.
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, Brigham Young
Work To Do-UNLV
The Cougars are for real, as their stunning rout of the Rebels makes the status switch very necessary. Air Force is safe, but BYU has become impossible to ignore now. UNLV needs to bounce back and keep winning to re-solidify their tourney status
Player to Watch: Mike Rose Sr/G, BYU- I know he only averages 5.3 ppg, but I got to give him dap for the 8 three-pointers he dropped in the Cougars rout of UNLV
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Cal
Is anyone questioning my moving SC to solid status now after they beat Oregon? Arizona is getting real close to falling to Work status after their horrendous week, the losses were to respectable teams to be sure (UNC and Wash. St) but they got clocked at home twice before getting a badly needed win over Washington who is now off the list and Cal is in serious danger of dropping off too.
Player to watch: Derrick Low, Jr/G, Washington State-Solid shooter for a team that will be tough to beat in March
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do- Georgia, Vanderbilt
'Bama saved itself a lot of problems with a pair of badly needed wins and in the morass that the SEC West is wins are at a premium. UK looks like it’ll teeter but rights itself with solid wins. Arkansas and LSU are off the list with their abysmal play as of late. Tennessee had better get right or get left off this list
Player to Watch: Joakim Noah Jr/F-C, Florida The Gators aren’t worried about much these days but you can be sure opponents are worried about Noah
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
The Wolfpack survived a massive home scare from Hawaii and Aggies aren’t going away. Can the WAC sent two teams, it’s becoming more possible.
Player to watch: Marcelus Kemp Jr/G, Nevada He keeps opponents from focusing too much on Nick Fazekas
1 Bid major conferences
Atlantic Ten
Solid- None yet
Work To Do- Rhode Island Geo. Wash, Xavier, Rhode Island, UMass
Rhode Island sits on top here, but the Colonials and Muskies are still in contention and the Minutemen lurk. This conference still looks like it will only get one bid
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis
Its Memphis and the 11 dwarves here.
Horizon
Solid-Butler
You can bank on the Bulldogs going and making some noise.
West Coast
Solid-GonzagaBulldogs (I’m not calling them the Zags!) still okay for now, their solid non-conference schedule makes them hard to ignore as long as they don’t screw up in conference.
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of grey area.
And of course the teams that win their conference tourney from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC
Its still early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Monday, February 05, 2007
Colts Win It All and Monk should be in the Hall
Now they can leave him alone. Peyton Manning embodied the cool relaxed
nature of his head coach Tony Dungy last night after the Colts 29-17
over the Bears last night in Super Bowl 4. He could have done like Steve
Young did in the same venue 12 years ago having someone pull the
proverbial monkey off his back and no one would have belittled him for
it. But he didn't, he smiled broadly and deflected credit to his
teammates and coaches. But Manning and Dungy could if they were that
type, but they aren't and thats what make it so easy to root for them.
But like I said now he can be left alone, no more questions about him
not winning on any level, he led his Colts to the Super Bowl and won it.
Manning is just the fourth QB to be drafted #1 and win the Super Bowl.
(Bradshaw, Plunkett and Aikman) Now lets just appreciate him for the
great QB that he is.
Speaking of appreciation the NFL just announced its newest inductees.
One inductee is Michael Irvin the loquacious receiver of the Dallas
Cowboys 90's dynasty. No one questions his credentials: 750 catches and
the primary target for Hall of Famer Troy Aikman for three Super Bowl
wins in the 90s. But I think its a shame that Irvin has been inducted
and a quieter yet no less prolific receiver like Art Monk has been
passed over...again. Monk won three super Bowls (17,22,27) and his
numbers 920 catches 12,721 receiving yards and 68 are better than
Irvin's Yet Monk's quiet demeanor has made him overlooked in some
circles. A good modern day comparison would be Marvin Harrison. I
remember Monk breaking Steve Largent's (Hall of Fame) receiving record
in 1992. Monk was lifted to his teammates shoulders and he reluctantly
took the ride, but the fans let him know that he was very much
appreciated. But Monk is not a self promoter and the fact that he has
been passed over for the 7th time is a crime. I would like to think that
he and Darrell Green could go into the Hall of Fame next year. I am one
among many who say that the honor is long overdue.
nature of his head coach Tony Dungy last night after the Colts 29-17
over the Bears last night in Super Bowl 4. He could have done like Steve
Young did in the same venue 12 years ago having someone pull the
proverbial monkey off his back and no one would have belittled him for
it. But he didn't, he smiled broadly and deflected credit to his
teammates and coaches. But Manning and Dungy could if they were that
type, but they aren't and thats what make it so easy to root for them.
But like I said now he can be left alone, no more questions about him
not winning on any level, he led his Colts to the Super Bowl and won it.
Manning is just the fourth QB to be drafted #1 and win the Super Bowl.
(Bradshaw, Plunkett and Aikman) Now lets just appreciate him for the
great QB that he is.
Speaking of appreciation the NFL just announced its newest inductees.
One inductee is Michael Irvin the loquacious receiver of the Dallas
Cowboys 90's dynasty. No one questions his credentials: 750 catches and
the primary target for Hall of Famer Troy Aikman for three Super Bowl
wins in the 90s. But I think its a shame that Irvin has been inducted
and a quieter yet no less prolific receiver like Art Monk has been
passed over...again. Monk won three super Bowls (17,22,27) and his
numbers 920 catches 12,721 receiving yards and 68 are better than
Irvin's Yet Monk's quiet demeanor has made him overlooked in some
circles. A good modern day comparison would be Marvin Harrison. I
remember Monk breaking Steve Largent's (Hall of Fame) receiving record
in 1992. Monk was lifted to his teammates shoulders and he reluctantly
took the ride, but the fans let him know that he was very much
appreciated. But Monk is not a self promoter and the fact that he has
been passed over for the 7th time is a crime. I would like to think that
he and Darrell Green could go into the Hall of Fame next year. I am one
among many who say that the honor is long overdue.
Friday, February 02, 2007
Super Bowl 41 Preview and Pick
Super Bowl 41 Preview
After 256 regular season games and 10 Playoff games have left two great teams standing. The Bears and Colts look to take that final step into football immortality Sunday with a win. I had the opportunity to meet Chuck Foreman who was a running back for some of the great Vikings teams of the 70s he proudly wears his NFC championship ring from 1976 on his right hand and it is plenty big. I also have a school chum that worked in the front office of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he got a ring and it is huge. The winning super bowl team gets a ring that is worth about 20 large. Never mind the $78K that each player on the full roster gets think of the words 49ers RB Johnny Davis after they beat the Bengals in Super Bowl 16, “The money’s nice but that will get spent, the ring lasts forever.” Knock so-so QB’s likeTrent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Bernie Kosar and Brad Johnson all you want. The only way that they get to Canton is to pay their own way. But they have what Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Fran Tarkenton wish they had… “the ring” (Kosar got his as a backup to Troy Aikman in Super Bowl 28) I don’t care what nice sound bite you hear from the hall of fame QB’s. I bet they would trade their stats and screaming yellow Hall of Fame blazers to have one of those rings, even if like Kosar it was in a backup role. Players like Butkus, Sanders, Sayers, and Dickerson who never even got to the Super Bowl look longingly at players like Matt Suhey, Golden Richards and Clint Didier who not only played and scored in a super bowl but also won. It’s the ring that the players are chasing, that part of history.
In any case, you have two outstanding teams squaring off, who has the edge? I’m glad you asked…lets look at each teams dossier
Indianapolis Colts (15-4)-American Football Conference Champions
Coach: Tony Dungy 60-20 record in 5 seasons in Indianapolis 114-62 overall in 11 regular seasons with Tampa Bay and Indianapolis 8-8 in playoffs 122-70 total
Regular Season Record: 12-4 AFC South Champions (#3 seed)
Road To Miami: Defeated Chiefs 23-8 in wild card round at home, AFC North champ Ravens 15-6 in divisional round in Baltimore and AFC East Champion Patriots 38-34 in AFC Championship.
Chicago Bears (15-3) National Football Conference Champions
Coach: Lovie Smith 29-19 record in 3 seasons in Chicago, same overall 2-1 in playoffs 31-20 total
Regular Season Record: 13-3 NFC North Champions (#1 Seed)
Road To Miami: 1st round bye, defeated NFC West Champ Seahawks 27-24 in divisional playoffs and NFC South Champ Saints 39-18 in NFC Championship
When The Colts Have the ball:
Key Offensive Players: QB Peyton Manning (4397 yards 31 TDS) WR Marvin Harrison (95 receptions, 1366 yards 10 tds) WR Reggie Wayne (86 Receptions 1310 yards 8 tds) WR Joseph Addai (1084 yards rushing, 7 tds)
Key Defensive Players: MLB Brian Urlacher (142 tackles) DE Mark Anderson (12 Sacks) LB Lance Briggs (134 tackles, 113 solo) CB Charles Tillman 5 Ints 10 Passes defensed, Ricky Manning Jr. 5 Ints, 14 passes defensed)
Breakdown: The irresitable force meets the heretofore immovable object. Urlacher, cut in the mold of the long line of legendary LBs has great range can drop into coverage and hits hard he needs to be accounted for on every play. Anderson is underrated as a speed rusher and the wild card is Tank Johnson who is a space eater and gives Urlacher more freedom to roam and cause havoc. The Colts offense needs no real introduction. Peyton Manning is the most prepared QB in the game, he’s not terribly mobile but can move enough to keep out of trouble. His sniper-like precision and ability to adjust on the fly makes him a nightmare to prepare for. He has elite targets in Harrison and Wayne. The redoubtable Harrison is the antithesis of the flashy WR of the day, but he gets open rarely drops passes and has a sneaky speed that has earned him consistent all-pro honors and respect of opposing DB’s. Wayne is a good compliment on the opposite side, and a scoring threat from anywhere on the field. Addai has had solid rookie season and filled in capably for departed free agent Edgerrin James. Addai can get that extra yard and has an underrated toughness. Lots of weapons on the offensive side.
Edge:Indianapolis
When the Bears have the Ball:
Key offensive players: QB Rex Grossman (3193 yds 23 tds) RB Thomas Jones (1210 yards 6 tds) Mushin Muhammad (60 receptions, 863 yards 5 tds)
Key defensive players: Cato June (142 tackles, 3 ints) Robert Mathis (9.5 sacks), Dwight Freeney (5.5 Sacks) Bob Sanders (20 tackles in 5 games), Mike Doss (2 ints 5 passes defensed,
Breakdown: The Bears have tried to not put as much on much maligned QB Rex Grossman. To be fair, Grossman has the tools and talent to be great, but he forces the ball often. Thomas Jones is a silky RB who isn’t shy about taking a hit. Muhammad is a cagey veteran who can make a spectacular grab, but Grossman too often tries to force the ball to. The Colts were derided for their glaring weakness in run defense but have shut down three of the better running teams in the AFC to get here. This further spotlights the impact of Bob Sanders who big hits and general mayhem have made the Colts much better defensively
Mathis and Freeney both operate better in space and complement each other well.
Edge:Indianapolis
Special Teams
Colts: K Adam Vinatieri 25/28 FG 38/38 XP -113 Pts P Hunter Smith 44.4 Avg/35.3 Net
Bears KR/PR Devin Hester 26.4 yds KR Avg -2 TDS (includes an NFL record 108 yd return on missed FG) 12.8 yds PR avg. 3 TDS
Bears K Robbie Gould 32/36 47/47-143 pts P Brad Maynard 44.2 avg/37.6
Colts KR/PR Terrence Wilkins 24.5 Yds KR Avg, 9.2 Yds PR Avg. 1 TD
The Colts improved their kicking game immensely with the big game tested Adam Vinatieri who gets cooler as the game situation gets hotter. Robbie Gould has a decently strong leg, but has yet to try a kick longer than 50 yards. Hunter “The Punter” Smith is a vet and is capable, but pales beside Brad Maynard whos booming punt set up the Bears rugged defense in solid position consistently
Edge: Even
Coaching:
Both coaches are well respected. Dungy has been known as a defensive coach and has made the Colts consistent double digit winners. Smith has made the Bears feared again. Both are known to have their teams well prepared and are reflective of their coaches’ cool demeanors. Dungy is fast shedding his label of one that can’t get his team ready to win. Smith is making other teams rue their decision to pass on picking him as their coach.
Edge:Even
Analysis:
Both teams have their strengths and liabilities. Don’t get the idea that this is an Indy walkover. The Bears are a dangerous defensive team and can create opportunities to score with a short field. Indy’s defense has gotten better going through the playoffs but the question remains can they stay on this roll? Rex Grossman will be the key, he has not forced things and has taken what has been given by opposing defenses. As a result the Bears gutted out a tough win over the Seahawks and buried the Saints late. As in previous games if Grossman and the Bears can utitlize Jones and Cedric Benson to pound the Colts suspect run defense and get more frequent single coverage on Muhammad and underrated wideout Bernard Berrian and Desmond Clark the Bears could keep it tight and could steal the game. But Peyton Manning has suddenly gotten sharp, he shook off two so-so performances in the wild card and divisional round and a 21-3 deficit in the AFC title game to shine when the money was on the line. That and the Bears defense has yet to face an efficient offense like the Colts bring, with so many ways to beat you. Look for the Colts to start fast, the Bears rallying to make it interesting into the 2nd half. Grossman has been living a charmed life in the playoffs and I think he’s overdue for meltdown, not a colossal one but one that his team can ill afford at a critical juncture. Manning will drive the Colts to a clinching score late and finally shake the cant win the big one tag for good. The game won’t need Vinatieri’s heroics in this Super Bowl, but it won’t be a blowout.
Pick- Colts 31 Bears 21
Playoff Tally 8-2
Overall 163-103
After 256 regular season games and 10 Playoff games have left two great teams standing. The Bears and Colts look to take that final step into football immortality Sunday with a win. I had the opportunity to meet Chuck Foreman who was a running back for some of the great Vikings teams of the 70s he proudly wears his NFC championship ring from 1976 on his right hand and it is plenty big. I also have a school chum that worked in the front office of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he got a ring and it is huge. The winning super bowl team gets a ring that is worth about 20 large. Never mind the $78K that each player on the full roster gets think of the words 49ers RB Johnny Davis after they beat the Bengals in Super Bowl 16, “The money’s nice but that will get spent, the ring lasts forever.” Knock so-so QB’s likeTrent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Bernie Kosar and Brad Johnson all you want. The only way that they get to Canton is to pay their own way. But they have what Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Fran Tarkenton wish they had… “the ring” (Kosar got his as a backup to Troy Aikman in Super Bowl 28) I don’t care what nice sound bite you hear from the hall of fame QB’s. I bet they would trade their stats and screaming yellow Hall of Fame blazers to have one of those rings, even if like Kosar it was in a backup role. Players like Butkus, Sanders, Sayers, and Dickerson who never even got to the Super Bowl look longingly at players like Matt Suhey, Golden Richards and Clint Didier who not only played and scored in a super bowl but also won. It’s the ring that the players are chasing, that part of history.
In any case, you have two outstanding teams squaring off, who has the edge? I’m glad you asked…lets look at each teams dossier
Indianapolis Colts (15-4)-American Football Conference Champions
Coach: Tony Dungy 60-20 record in 5 seasons in Indianapolis 114-62 overall in 11 regular seasons with Tampa Bay and Indianapolis 8-8 in playoffs 122-70 total
Regular Season Record: 12-4 AFC South Champions (#3 seed)
Road To Miami: Defeated Chiefs 23-8 in wild card round at home, AFC North champ Ravens 15-6 in divisional round in Baltimore and AFC East Champion Patriots 38-34 in AFC Championship.
Chicago Bears (15-3) National Football Conference Champions
Coach: Lovie Smith 29-19 record in 3 seasons in Chicago, same overall 2-1 in playoffs 31-20 total
Regular Season Record: 13-3 NFC North Champions (#1 Seed)
Road To Miami: 1st round bye, defeated NFC West Champ Seahawks 27-24 in divisional playoffs and NFC South Champ Saints 39-18 in NFC Championship
When The Colts Have the ball:
Key Offensive Players: QB Peyton Manning (4397 yards 31 TDS) WR Marvin Harrison (95 receptions, 1366 yards 10 tds) WR Reggie Wayne (86 Receptions 1310 yards 8 tds) WR Joseph Addai (1084 yards rushing, 7 tds)
Key Defensive Players: MLB Brian Urlacher (142 tackles) DE Mark Anderson (12 Sacks) LB Lance Briggs (134 tackles, 113 solo) CB Charles Tillman 5 Ints 10 Passes defensed, Ricky Manning Jr. 5 Ints, 14 passes defensed)
Breakdown: The irresitable force meets the heretofore immovable object. Urlacher, cut in the mold of the long line of legendary LBs has great range can drop into coverage and hits hard he needs to be accounted for on every play. Anderson is underrated as a speed rusher and the wild card is Tank Johnson who is a space eater and gives Urlacher more freedom to roam and cause havoc. The Colts offense needs no real introduction. Peyton Manning is the most prepared QB in the game, he’s not terribly mobile but can move enough to keep out of trouble. His sniper-like precision and ability to adjust on the fly makes him a nightmare to prepare for. He has elite targets in Harrison and Wayne. The redoubtable Harrison is the antithesis of the flashy WR of the day, but he gets open rarely drops passes and has a sneaky speed that has earned him consistent all-pro honors and respect of opposing DB’s. Wayne is a good compliment on the opposite side, and a scoring threat from anywhere on the field. Addai has had solid rookie season and filled in capably for departed free agent Edgerrin James. Addai can get that extra yard and has an underrated toughness. Lots of weapons on the offensive side.
Edge:Indianapolis
When the Bears have the Ball:
Key offensive players: QB Rex Grossman (3193 yds 23 tds) RB Thomas Jones (1210 yards 6 tds) Mushin Muhammad (60 receptions, 863 yards 5 tds)
Key defensive players: Cato June (142 tackles, 3 ints) Robert Mathis (9.5 sacks), Dwight Freeney (5.5 Sacks) Bob Sanders (20 tackles in 5 games), Mike Doss (2 ints 5 passes defensed,
Breakdown: The Bears have tried to not put as much on much maligned QB Rex Grossman. To be fair, Grossman has the tools and talent to be great, but he forces the ball often. Thomas Jones is a silky RB who isn’t shy about taking a hit. Muhammad is a cagey veteran who can make a spectacular grab, but Grossman too often tries to force the ball to. The Colts were derided for their glaring weakness in run defense but have shut down three of the better running teams in the AFC to get here. This further spotlights the impact of Bob Sanders who big hits and general mayhem have made the Colts much better defensively
Mathis and Freeney both operate better in space and complement each other well.
Edge:Indianapolis
Special Teams
Colts: K Adam Vinatieri 25/28 FG 38/38 XP -113 Pts P Hunter Smith 44.4 Avg/35.3 Net
Bears KR/PR Devin Hester 26.4 yds KR Avg -2 TDS (includes an NFL record 108 yd return on missed FG) 12.8 yds PR avg. 3 TDS
Bears K Robbie Gould 32/36 47/47-143 pts P Brad Maynard 44.2 avg/37.6
Colts KR/PR Terrence Wilkins 24.5 Yds KR Avg, 9.2 Yds PR Avg. 1 TD
The Colts improved their kicking game immensely with the big game tested Adam Vinatieri who gets cooler as the game situation gets hotter. Robbie Gould has a decently strong leg, but has yet to try a kick longer than 50 yards. Hunter “The Punter” Smith is a vet and is capable, but pales beside Brad Maynard whos booming punt set up the Bears rugged defense in solid position consistently
Edge: Even
Coaching:
Both coaches are well respected. Dungy has been known as a defensive coach and has made the Colts consistent double digit winners. Smith has made the Bears feared again. Both are known to have their teams well prepared and are reflective of their coaches’ cool demeanors. Dungy is fast shedding his label of one that can’t get his team ready to win. Smith is making other teams rue their decision to pass on picking him as their coach.
Edge:Even
Analysis:
Both teams have their strengths and liabilities. Don’t get the idea that this is an Indy walkover. The Bears are a dangerous defensive team and can create opportunities to score with a short field. Indy’s defense has gotten better going through the playoffs but the question remains can they stay on this roll? Rex Grossman will be the key, he has not forced things and has taken what has been given by opposing defenses. As a result the Bears gutted out a tough win over the Seahawks and buried the Saints late. As in previous games if Grossman and the Bears can utitlize Jones and Cedric Benson to pound the Colts suspect run defense and get more frequent single coverage on Muhammad and underrated wideout Bernard Berrian and Desmond Clark the Bears could keep it tight and could steal the game. But Peyton Manning has suddenly gotten sharp, he shook off two so-so performances in the wild card and divisional round and a 21-3 deficit in the AFC title game to shine when the money was on the line. That and the Bears defense has yet to face an efficient offense like the Colts bring, with so many ways to beat you. Look for the Colts to start fast, the Bears rallying to make it interesting into the 2nd half. Grossman has been living a charmed life in the playoffs and I think he’s overdue for meltdown, not a colossal one but one that his team can ill afford at a critical juncture. Manning will drive the Colts to a clinching score late and finally shake the cant win the big one tag for good. The game won’t need Vinatieri’s heroics in this Super Bowl, but it won’t be a blowout.
Pick- Colts 31 Bears 21
Playoff Tally 8-2
Overall 163-103
Thursday, February 01, 2007
First Spec of February
2007 NCAA Spec Sheet
Picks as of 2/1
The heat turns up and the jostling for bids continues. Some have their bids on lock, some still have work to do When I refer to a teams “numbers” I refer to factors that the NCAA look at RPI ranking and Strength of Schedule. The lower the number is the better a team’s prospects are. Wins and close losses to good teams help beating up on or losses weak teams hurt. Road wins are always a plus in consideration. But keep in mind there is still a long way to go before the conference tourneys. Playing well at this time of the year means you have a little more wiggle room come tourney time where upsets abound Play well here and you can get away with losing on a 40 foot desperation shot or if a teams big man gets hurt. I’ve also included players to watch whose play
These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, Duke, Clemson Va. Tech
Work to do- Florida State, Maryland, BC
Look who just barged into the high rent district! The Hokies have been playing solid and the committee will notice wins over Duke and UNC. Clemson stays even with the clock shenanigans at Duke giving them a bad Chapel Hill-Durham two piece. BC has no more gimmes after this Hartford game with UNC and Duke still to come calling to Chestnut Hill.
Player To Watch-Zabian Dowdell Sr/G-Virgnia Tech With all the talk focused on Tyler Hansbrough at UNC, its easy to overlook the ballhawking Dowdell who isn’t afraid to take the Hokies on his back with a big shot.
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette
Work to do- West Virginia, G-Town, Villanova, Notre Dame, Providence
Notre Dame righted itself sort of with a track meet like win in Syracuse but they still have to offset some bad losses. G-Town is mowing down everyone that’s being put in front of them and The Ville is doing the same. The Mountaineers have to prove they can win on the road and make hay against beatable opponent before the curve gets way steeper. The Friars have decent numbers there are danger games left for them yet. Stay Tuned
Player to Watch-Aaron Gray Sr./C-Pitt Simply put Gray is a beast, averaging a double-double (14.2 ppg/ 10.2 rpg)
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Work To Do-Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan
Michigan State was solidifying itself before an abysmal game at Illinois Tuesday. I’m not sold on Michigan and Purdue yet both could get to 20 and get locked out despite good numbers. The Hoosiers can move into solid status with a win over Wisconsin and quiet their usual late season critics (me included)
Player to Watch:Alando Tucker Sr./G-Wisconsin Talk about Greg Oden all you want, Tucker is the reason why the Badgers are ranked #2 right now
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Work To Do-Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Texas is 5-1 in league but their numbers are awful, Tech’s doing itself no favors by getting woodshedded by the likes of Mizzou. Why does that beatdown of USC by K-State suddenly look so golden?
Player To Watch:Kevin Durant- Fr/F Texas-24.4 points a game…’nuf said
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois
Work To Do- Wichita State Creighton, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
Creighton missed a golden opportunity to solidify their resume by dropping a heartbreaker against Southern Illinois, a team that is going. Bradley has the best numbers of the second tier but lacks a signature win. Both Northern Iowa and Mo State are in this class as well but the Bears have the easier schedule and can pile up the wins.
Player To Watch-Nate Funk Sr/G- Creighton. His last name bespeaks his game.
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, UNLV
Work To Do-Brigham Young
The Falcons now have company, UNLV are rolling and have earned their way into solid status for now. BYU now sits in a precarious position and look who’s coming to town: the aforementioned Runnin’ Rebs. A win here would be a nice complement to their upset of Air Force and puts them right in the mix.
Players to Watch:Wink Adams So/G UNLV- Blink and you might miss this quicksilver guard the drives the Rebs
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Cal Washington
Other folks are still hemming and hawing on SC but I have them solid. Stanford is an interesting case. This team could be a headache for anyone and they could make noise with matchups with both SoCal teams and Gonzaga on the docket. Cal is danger after a disastrous two piece by the visiting SoCal schools. Washington is teetering also but the wins over the Oregon schools keep them here…for now.
Players to watch:Brook and Robin Lopez Fr C/F, Stanford-The most underrated freshmen in the country. The Lopez twins are making big strides and will make the Cardinal hard to handle.
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do-Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt
UK quieted a lot of critics with a badly needed win against Tennessee, albeit without Chris Lofton. I’m leaving “Bama in for now, but more bad losses would not bode well. Georgia is becoming harder to ignore as is Vanderbilt, both have upcoming games to prove themselves. LSU hangs on to that win at Texas A&M but they keep piling up bad losses.
Player to Watch-Chris Lofton JR/G-Tennessee As this silky shooter goes so do the Vols
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
The Wolfpack and Aggies will fight to the death for control of this conference. One of the best that you probably know little about. The Aggies host the WAC tourney and will be a handful.
Players to watch: Justin Hawkins, Jr/F New Mexico St.-Averaging better than 16 points. Nick Fazekas SR/F Nevada-Notched 54th Double-Double
1 Bid major conferences
Atlantic Ten
Solid-None
Work To Do-Xavier, Geo. Wash, Rhode Island, UMassUMass has pushed itself into contention but as it stands there are a lot of so-so teams here and with as many bustling conferences out there, so-so gets you only the automatic bid
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis The Tigers are on cruise control…still .
Horizon
Solid-Butler The Bulldogs have a top 15 ranking, only a free fall keeps them out.
West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Bulldogs still okay for now, their solid non-conference schedule makes them hard to ignore as long as they don’t screw up in conference.
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Since this is an early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Picks as of 2/1
The heat turns up and the jostling for bids continues. Some have their bids on lock, some still have work to do When I refer to a teams “numbers” I refer to factors that the NCAA look at RPI ranking and Strength of Schedule. The lower the number is the better a team’s prospects are. Wins and close losses to good teams help beating up on or losses weak teams hurt. Road wins are always a plus in consideration. But keep in mind there is still a long way to go before the conference tourneys. Playing well at this time of the year means you have a little more wiggle room come tourney time where upsets abound Play well here and you can get away with losing on a 40 foot desperation shot or if a teams big man gets hurt. I’ve also included players to watch whose play
These conferences will get multiple bids teams listed are the ones with the best chances
Atlantic Coast
Solid North Carolina, Duke, Clemson Va. Tech
Work to do- Florida State, Maryland, BC
Look who just barged into the high rent district! The Hokies have been playing solid and the committee will notice wins over Duke and UNC. Clemson stays even with the clock shenanigans at Duke giving them a bad Chapel Hill-Durham two piece. BC has no more gimmes after this Hartford game with UNC and Duke still to come calling to Chestnut Hill.
Player To Watch-Zabian Dowdell Sr/G-Virgnia Tech With all the talk focused on Tyler Hansbrough at UNC, its easy to overlook the ballhawking Dowdell who isn’t afraid to take the Hokies on his back with a big shot.
Big East
Solid Pitt, Marquette
Work to do- West Virginia, G-Town, Villanova, Notre Dame, Providence
Notre Dame righted itself sort of with a track meet like win in Syracuse but they still have to offset some bad losses. G-Town is mowing down everyone that’s being put in front of them and The Ville is doing the same. The Mountaineers have to prove they can win on the road and make hay against beatable opponent before the curve gets way steeper. The Friars have decent numbers there are danger games left for them yet. Stay Tuned
Player to Watch-Aaron Gray Sr./C-Pitt Simply put Gray is a beast, averaging a double-double (14.2 ppg/ 10.2 rpg)
Big Ten
Solid-Wisconsin, Ohio State
Work To Do-Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan
Michigan State was solidifying itself before an abysmal game at Illinois Tuesday. I’m not sold on Michigan and Purdue yet both could get to 20 and get locked out despite good numbers. The Hoosiers can move into solid status with a win over Wisconsin and quiet their usual late season critics (me included)
Player to Watch:Alando Tucker Sr./G-Wisconsin Talk about Greg Oden all you want, Tucker is the reason why the Badgers are ranked #2 right now
Big 12
Solid-Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Work To Do-Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Texas is 5-1 in league but their numbers are awful, Tech’s doing itself no favors by getting woodshedded by the likes of Mizzou. Why does that beatdown of USC by K-State suddenly look so golden?
Player To Watch:Kevin Durant- Fr/F Texas-24.4 points a game…’nuf said
Missouri Valley
Solid- Southern Illinois
Work To Do- Wichita State Creighton, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
Creighton missed a golden opportunity to solidify their resume by dropping a heartbreaker against Southern Illinois, a team that is going. Bradley has the best numbers of the second tier but lacks a signature win. Both Northern Iowa and Mo State are in this class as well but the Bears have the easier schedule and can pile up the wins.
Player To Watch-Nate Funk Sr/G- Creighton. His last name bespeaks his game.
Mountain West
Solid-Air Force, UNLV
Work To Do-Brigham Young
The Falcons now have company, UNLV are rolling and have earned their way into solid status for now. BYU now sits in a precarious position and look who’s coming to town: the aforementioned Runnin’ Rebs. A win here would be a nice complement to their upset of Air Force and puts them right in the mix.
Players to Watch:Wink Adams So/G UNLV- Blink and you might miss this quicksilver guard the drives the Rebs
Pacific 10
Solid-UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Wash. St, SC
Work To Do-Stanford, Cal Washington
Other folks are still hemming and hawing on SC but I have them solid. Stanford is an interesting case. This team could be a headache for anyone and they could make noise with matchups with both SoCal teams and Gonzaga on the docket. Cal is danger after a disastrous two piece by the visiting SoCal schools. Washington is teetering also but the wins over the Oregon schools keep them here…for now.
Players to watch:Brook and Robin Lopez Fr C/F, Stanford-The most underrated freshmen in the country. The Lopez twins are making big strides and will make the Cardinal hard to handle.
Southeastern
Solid-Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, UK
Work to do-Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt
UK quieted a lot of critics with a badly needed win against Tennessee, albeit without Chris Lofton. I’m leaving “Bama in for now, but more bad losses would not bode well. Georgia is becoming harder to ignore as is Vanderbilt, both have upcoming games to prove themselves. LSU hangs on to that win at Texas A&M but they keep piling up bad losses.
Player to Watch-Chris Lofton JR/G-Tennessee As this silky shooter goes so do the Vols
Western Athletic
Solid-Nevada
Work To Do- New Mexico St
The Wolfpack and Aggies will fight to the death for control of this conference. One of the best that you probably know little about. The Aggies host the WAC tourney and will be a handful.
Players to watch: Justin Hawkins, Jr/F New Mexico St.-Averaging better than 16 points. Nick Fazekas SR/F Nevada-Notched 54th Double-Double
1 Bid major conferences
Atlantic Ten
Solid-None
Work To Do-Xavier, Geo. Wash, Rhode Island, UMassUMass has pushed itself into contention but as it stands there are a lot of so-so teams here and with as many bustling conferences out there, so-so gets you only the automatic bid
Conference USA
Solid-Memphis The Tigers are on cruise control…still .
Horizon
Solid-Butler The Bulldogs have a top 15 ranking, only a free fall keeps them out.
West Coast
Solid-Gonzaga
Bulldogs still okay for now, their solid non-conference schedule makes them hard to ignore as long as they don’t screw up in conference.
Teams also in consideration:
Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra. Bracket Buster Weekend on 2/17 will clear up a lot of grey area.
And of course the teams from the following get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC Since this is an early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
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